Varese vs Trieste Prediction & Odds

Lega A Saturday, October 10, 2026Sat, Oct 10 Start14:30ET Round 3

VareseHome · 4-2 · 5th · 1.32

8519212124

TriesteAway · 2-3 · 11th · 3.04

8415232026

By quarter 1st 2nd 3rd 4th

Varese 19 21 21 24

Trieste 15 23 20 26

FT Palasport Lino Oldrini · ItalyPalasport Lino Oldrini · Round 3

Best tip of the game

Point spread Won

TRI +12.5 1.32 84%

Trieste +12.5 on the spread edge +11.9%

Best tip of the game Point spread · Won TRI +12.5 1.32 Trieste +12.5 on the spread Confidence84% model 84.4% · market 72.5% edge +11.9%

All predictions

3 picks graded · Average confidence 69%

Picks for this game

Market PickOdds Model Market Edge Confidence Result

Moneyline 2 3.04 53.1% 35.0% +18.1% 53% Lost

Total points U181.5 1.32 82.2% 70.5% +11.7% 69% Won

Point spread TRI +12.5 1.32 84.4% 72.5% +11.9% 84% Won

Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

Varese8582

Trieste8484

Total 166 actual 169

Winning margin TRI by 2 actual VAR by 1

Chance to win TRI 53% VAR won

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

Varese8582

Trieste8484

Total 166 Margin TRI by 2 Win TRI 53% Actual 169 · VAR won

Predicted team stats

Prediction From 19+ games with full stats per team · no bookmaker odds

Varese large = predicted · small = actual, above / below the prediction Trieste

Large = predicted · small = actual, above / below the prediction

Rebounds

Other

Shooting

Varese vs Trieste

Varese Trieste

Last 8 and 5 games with full stats · all competitions

Season record above, per-game averages below.

Last five games

Varese 2-3

Oct 7: Murcia 85, Varese 58. Lost. Odds: Murcia 1.12, Varese 5.75.
Oct 4: Scafati 77, Varese 85. Won. Odds: Scafati 1.94, Varese 1.83.
Sep 27: Varese 69, Virtus Bologna 90. Lost. Odds: Varese 2.25, Virtus Bologna 1.60.
May 10: Virtus Bologna 104, Varese 85. Lost. No odds on record.
Apr 26: Varese 84, Cremona 75. Won. No odds on record.

Trieste 1-4

Oct 4: Trieste 82, Venezia 87. Lost. Odds: Trieste 2.77, Venezia 1.42.
Sep 27: Olimpia Milano 83, Trieste 79. Lost. Odds: Olimpia Milano 1.06, Trieste 8.19.
May 25: Brescia 90, Trieste 75. Lost. No odds on record.
May 23: Trieste 83, Brescia 77. Won. No odds on record.
May 21: Trieste 80, Brescia 84. Lost. No odds on record.

Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.

How the odds moved

Market	Open	Now
VAR moneyline	1.27	moved up 1.32
TRI moneyline	3.40	moved down 3.04
Total points	171.5	moved down 170.5
VAR spread	−5.5	moved down −6.5

Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.

Lega A standings

Regular Season

#	Team	GP	W	L	Pct	PF	PA	+/−
1	Virtus Bologna	5	5	0	1.000	487	421	+66
2	Basket Napoli	6	5	1	.833	565	517	+48
3	Treviso	6	5	1	.833	559	533	+26
4	Maxima Roma	6	4	2	.667	518	499	+19
5	Varese	6	4	2	.667	533	529	+4
6	Olimpia Milano	5	3	2	.600	453	411	+42
7	Trento	6	3	3	.500	477	497	−20
8	Verona	6	3	3	.500	538	543	−5
9	Venezia	6	3	3	.500	532	542	−10
10	Udine	6	3	3	.500	485	481	+4
11	Trieste	5	2	3	.400	445	426	+19
12	BC Roma	6	2	4	.333	601	579	+22
13	Reggiana	6	2	4	.333	494	503	−9
14	Tortona	6	1	5	.167	499	561	−62
15	Scafati	6	1	5	.167	482	553	−71
16	Cantu	5	0	5	.000	369	442	−73

Playoffs: Quarter-finals
Relegation

Pct percentage of games won — the table is sorted by it. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.

Varese host Trieste in the Lega A on Saturday, October 10, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.