Toronto Raptors vs Miami Heat Prediction & Odds — Oct 3

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NBA Saturday, October 3, 2026Sat, Oct 3 Start19:00ET

Toronto RaptorsHome · 3-2 · 9th · 1.71

12941351934

Miami HeatAway · 2-4 · 7th · 2.06

10523322525

By quarter 1st 2nd 3rd 4th

Toronto Raptors 41 35 19 34

Miami Heat 23 32 25 25

FT Scotiabank Arena · USAScotiabank Arena

Best tip of the game

Point spread Lost

MIA +6.5 1.40 69%

Miami Heat +6.5 on the spread edge −6.9%

Best tip of the game Point spread · Lost MIA +6.5 1.40 Miami Heat +6.5 on the spread Confidence69% model 59.4% · market 66.3% edge −6.9%

All predictions

3 picks graded · Average confidence 73%

Picks for this game

Market PickOdds Model Market Edge Confidence Result

Moneyline 2 2.09 55.3% 51.1% +4.2% 61% Lost

Total points O217.5 1.29 83.7% 73.4% +10.3% 89% Won

Point spread MIA +6.5 1.40 59.4% 66.3% −6.9% 69% Lost

Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

Toronto Raptors129118

Miami Heat105120

Total 238 actual 234

Winning margin MIA by 2 actual TOR by 24

Chance to win MIA 55% TOR won

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

Toronto Raptors129118

Miami Heat105120

Total 238 Margin MIA by 2 Win MIA 55% Actual 234 · TOR won

Predicted team stats

Prediction From 17+ games with full stats per team · no bookmaker odds

Toronto Raptors large = predicted · small = actual, above / below the prediction Miami Heat

Large = predicted · small = actual, above / below the prediction

Other

Shooting

Toronto Raptors vs Miami Heat

Toronto Raptors Miami Heat

Last 6 games each with full stats · all competitions

Season record above, per-game averages below.

Last five games

Toronto Raptors 3-2

May 3: Cleveland Cavaliers 114, Toronto Raptors 102. Lost. No odds on record.
May 1: Toronto Raptors 112, Cleveland Cavaliers 110. After overtime. Won. No odds on record.
Apr 29: Cleveland Cavaliers 125, Toronto Raptors 120. Lost. No odds on record.
Apr 26: Toronto Raptors 93, Cleveland Cavaliers 89. Won. No odds on record.
Apr 23: Toronto Raptors 126, Cleveland Cavaliers 104. Won. No odds on record.

Miami Heat 2-3

Apr 14: Charlotte Hornets 127, Miami Heat 126. After overtime. Lost. No odds on record.
Apr 12: Miami Heat 143, Atlanta Hawks 117. Won. No odds on record.
Apr 10: Washington Wizards 117, Miami Heat 140. Won. No odds on record.
Apr 9: Toronto Raptors 128, Miami Heat 114. Lost. No odds on record.
Apr 7: Toronto Raptors 121, Miami Heat 95. Lost. No odds on record.

Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.

How the odds moved

Market	Open	Now
TOR moneyline	1.90	moved down 1.71
MIA moneyline	1.88	moved up 2.06
Total points	230.5	moved down 228.5
TOR spread	−4.5	moved up −2.5

Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.

NBA standings

Pre-season · Eastern Conference

#	Team	GP	W	L	Pct	PF	PA	+/−
1	Boston Celtics	4	4	0	1.000	507	432	+75
2	Atlanta Hawks	5	4	1	.800	613	586	+27
3	Brooklyn Nets	4	3	1	.750	497	464	+33
4	Orlando Magic	4	3	1	.750	495	468	+27
5	Detroit Pistons	4	3	1	.750	474	452	+22
6	Chicago Bulls	5	3	2	.600	610	574	+36
7	Miami Heat	5	3	2	.600	640	612	+28
8	Washington Wizards	4	2	2	.500	453	455	−2
9	Toronto Raptors	5	2	3	.400	612	584	+28
10	Milwaukee Bucks	5	2	3	.400	547	599	−52
11	Cleveland Cavaliers	3	1	2	.333	348	361	−13
12	Indiana Pacers	4	1	3	.250	479	473	+6
13	Philadelphia 76ers	4	1	3	.250	454	480	−26
14	Charlotte Hornets	4	1	3	.250	386	444	−58
15	New York Knicks	5	1	4	.200	530	621	−91

Pct percentage of games won — the table is sorted by it. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.

Toronto Raptors host Miami Heat in the NBA on Saturday, October 3, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.