Tokomanawa Queens vs Mainland Pouakai prediction
Tokomanawa Queens
22
21
16
18
Mainland Pouakai
23
30
22
39
All predictions
3 picks graded · Average confidence 57%Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.
The score the model expects. An estimate, not a bet we publish.
Tokomanawa Queens7778Mainland Pouakai11476Tokomanawa Queens7778Mainland Pouakai11476Total 154 Margin TOK by 2 Win TOK 54% Actual 191 · MAI won
Tokomanawa Queens
large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction Mainland Pouakai
Large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction
Rebounds
Other
Shooting
Tokomanawa Queens vs Mainland Pouakai
Tokomanawa Queens
Mainland Pouakai
Last 5 and 7 games with full stats · all competitions
Season record above, per-game averages below.
Head-to-head
Head-to-head record: Tokomanawa Queens 1, Mainland Pouakai 3.
- Average total 174.3 points per meeting
- Over 162.5 3 of 4 against this game’s total
- Last meeting MAI by 3 Oct 23, 2026
Meetings
- Oct 23, 2026 Tauihi Women Mainland Pouakai 93–90 Tokomanawa Queens 183 pts
- Nov 7, 2025 Tauihi Women Tokomanawa Queens 89–93 Mainland Pouakai 182 pts
- Oct 24, 2025 Tauihi Women Mainland Pouakai 103–79 Tokomanawa Queens 182 pts
- Oct 3, 2025 Tauihi Women Tokomanawa Queens 81–69 Mainland Pouakai 150 pts
Last five games
Tokomanawa Queens
2-3 - Sep 26: Tokomanawa Queens 69, Northern Kahu 75. Lost. Odds: Tokomanawa Queens 1.62, Northern Kahu 2.10.
- Dec 5, 2025: Tokomanawa Queens 76, Mid-North Whai 82. Lost. No odds on record.
- Nov 29, 2025: Northern Kahu 72, Tokomanawa Queens 88. Won. No odds on record.
- Nov 22, 2025: Tokomanawa Queens 88, Mid-North Whai 82. Won. No odds on record.
- Nov 15, 2025: Southern Hoiho 75, Tokomanawa Queens 68. Lost. No odds on record.
Mainland Pouakai
3-2 - Sep 26: Mainland Pouakai 87, Southern Hoiho 80. Won. Odds: Mainland Pouakai 1.62, Southern Hoiho 2.10.
- Dec 13, 2025: Mainland Pouakai 66, Mid-North Whai 93. Lost. No odds on record.
- Dec 6, 2025: Mainland Pouakai 99, Southern Hoiho 92. Won. No odds on record.
- Nov 28, 2025: Mainland Pouakai 102, Northern Kahu 62. Won. No odds on record.
- Nov 20, 2025: Southern Hoiho 99, Mainland Pouakai 94. Lost. No odds on record.
Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.
Key insights
- Net rating difference of 22.4 — Tokomanawa Queens −12.9 per 100 possessions, Mainland Pouakai +9.5.
- 3-1 in the last 4 meetings for Mainland Pouakai.
- 174.3 points per meeting across the last 4 head-to-head games; the over/under line is 162.5.
- 5th vs 2nd in the Tauihi Women standings.
How the odds moved
| Market | Open | Now |
|---|---|---|
| TOK moneyline | 1.30 | moved down 1.26 |
| MAI moneyline | 3.25 | moved up 3.40 |
| Total points | 162.5 | 162.5 |
| TOK spread | −6.5 | moved down −8.5 |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.
Tauihi Women standings
Regular Season
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Pts | PF | PA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Southern Hoiho |
8 | 7 | 1 | 15 | 638 | 583 | +55 |
| 2 | Mainland Pouakai |
7 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 631 | 573 | +58 |
| 3 |  Tauranga Whai |
7 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 530 | 538 | −8 |
| 4 |  Northern Kahu |
6 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 442 | 492 | −50 |
| 5 | Tokomanawa Queens |
6 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 477 | 532 | −55 |
- Playoffs: Semi-finals
Pts standings points: 2 for a win, 1 for a loss — the table is sorted by them. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.
Tokomanawa Queens host Mainland Pouakai in the Tauihi Women on Sunday, October 4, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.