Sydney vs New Zealand Breakers prediction
Sydney
29
32
12
28
New Zealand Breakers
31
20
24
27
All predictions
3 picks graded · Average confidence 85%Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.
The score the model expects. An estimate, not a bet we publish.
Sydney101100New Zealand Breakers10287Sydney101100New Zealand Breakers10287Total 187 Margin SYD by 13 Win SYD 82% Actual 203 · NZB won
Sydney
large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction New Zealand Breakers
Large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction
Rebounds
Other
Shooting
Sydney vs New Zealand Breakers
Sydney
New Zealand Breakers
Last 9 and 11 games with full stats · all competitions
Sydney at home, last 6 games · New Zealand Breakers away, last 8
Season record above, per-game averages below.
Head-to-head
Head-to-head record: Sydney 3, New Zealand Breakers 1.
- Average total 168.3 points per meeting
- Over 185.5 0 of 4 against this game’s total
- Last meeting SYD by 41 Jan 9, 2026
Meetings
- Jan 9, 2026 NBL New Zealand Breakers 62–103 Sydney 165 pts
- Dec 3, 2025 NBL New Zealand Breakers 95–90 Sydney 185 pts
- Nov 9, 2025 NBL Sydney 79–72 New Zealand Breakers 151 pts
- Oct 4, 2025 NBL Sydney 97–75 New Zealand Breakers 172 pts
Last five games
Sydney
4-1 - Oct 11: Sydney 78, Adelaide 84. Lost. Odds: Sydney 1.23, Adelaide 3.85.
- Sep 30: Sydney 93, Brisbane Bullets 78. Won. Odds: Sydney 1.36, Brisbane Bullets 3.03.
- Sep 27: Sydney 121, Illawarra Hawks 100. Won. Odds: Sydney 1.23, Illawarra Hawks 3.91.
- Sep 20: Sydney 111, Cairns Taipans 90. Won. Odds: Sydney 1.27, Cairns Taipans 3.60.
- Apr 5: Sydney 113, Adelaide 101. After overtime. Won. No odds on record.
New Zealand Breakers
2-3 - Oct 10: Perth 100, New Zealand Breakers 84. Lost. Odds: Perth 1.34, New Zealand Breakers 3.12.
- Oct 4: Adelaide 69, New Zealand Breakers 88. Won. Odds: Adelaide 1.51, New Zealand Breakers 2.64.
- Sep 30: New Zealand Breakers 98, Cairns Taipans 75. Won. Odds: New Zealand Breakers 1.51, Cairns Taipans 2.48.
- Sep 26: Perth 97, New Zealand Breakers 93. Lost. Odds: Perth 1.47, New Zealand Breakers 2.60.
- Sep 22: Brisbane Bullets 88, New Zealand Breakers 85. Lost. Odds: Brisbane Bullets 1.97, New Zealand Breakers 1.81.
Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.
Key insights
- Over/under moved up from 183.5 to 185.5 since it was first published.
- Net rating difference of 13.5 — Sydney +12.2 per 100 possessions, New Zealand Breakers −1.3.
- 3-1 in the last 4 meetings for Sydney.
- +7.7 points at home — Sydney averaged 101.0 at home and 93.3 away this season.
- 4-1 in the last five for Sydney.
How the odds moved
| Market | Open | Now |
|---|---|---|
| SYD moneyline | 1.17 | moved down 1.11 |
| NZB moneyline | 4.60 | moved down 3.90 |
| Total points | 183.5 | moved up 185.5 |
| SYD spread | −10.5 | moved down −13.5 |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.
NBL standings
Regular Season
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Pct | PF | PA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sydney |
10 | 7 | 3 | .700 | 979 | 881 | +98 |
| 2 |  Tasmania JackJumpers |
10 | 7 | 3 | .700 | 956 | 908 | +48 |
| 3 |  Perth |
9 | 5 | 4 | .556 | 839 | 870 | −31 |
| 4 |  Cairns Taipans |
11 | 6 | 5 | .545 | 1014 | 1062 | −48 |
| 5 |  Melbourne United |
10 | 5 | 5 | .500 | 967 | 925 | +42 |
| 6 |  Brisbane Bullets |
10 | 5 | 5 | .500 | 938 | 967 | −29 |
| 7 |  Adelaide |
11 | 5 | 6 | .455 | 1001 | 1031 | −30 |
| 8 |  South East Melbourne |
10 | 4 | 6 | .400 | 969 | 943 | +26 |
| 9 | New Zealand Breakers |
10 | 4 | 6 | .400 | 922 | 906 | +16 |
| 10 |  Illawarra Hawks |
11 | 3 | 8 | .273 | 1057 | 1149 | −92 |
- Playoffs: Semi-finals
- Playoffs: Quarter-finals
Pct percentage of games won — the table is sorted by it. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.
Sydney host New Zealand Breakers in the NBL on Wednesday, October 14, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.