Sydney vs Illawarra Hawks prediction
Sydney
31
34
33
23
Illawarra Hawks
27
18
26
29
All predictions
3 picks graded · Average confidence 66%Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.
The score the model expects. An estimate, not a bet we publish.
Sydney121105Illawarra Hawks10097Sydney121105Illawarra Hawks10097Total 202 Margin SYD by 8 Win SYD 72% Actual 221 · SYD won
Sydney
large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction Illawarra Hawks
Large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction
Rebounds
Other
Shooting
Sydney vs Illawarra Hawks
Sydney
Illawarra Hawks
Last 9 and 11 games with full stats · all competitions
Sydney at home, last 6 games · Illawarra Hawks away, last 6
Season record above, per-game averages below.
Head-to-head
Head-to-head record: Sydney 5, Illawarra Hawks 0.
- Average total 198.2 points per meeting
- Over 190.5 3 of 5 against this game’s total
- Last meeting SYD by 26 Oct 22, 2026
Meetings
- Oct 22, 2026 NBL Illawarra Hawks 82–108 Sydney 190 pts
- Feb 13, 2026 NBL Illawarra Hawks 94–120 Sydney 214 pts
- Jan 29, 2026 NBL Sydney 122–104 Illawarra Hawks 226 pts
- Dec 25, 2025 NBL Sydney 108–84 Illawarra Hawks 192 pts
- Nov 15, 2025 NBL Illawarra Hawks 71–98 Sydney 169 pts
Last five games
Sydney
3-2 - Sep 20: Sydney 111, Cairns Taipans 90. Won. Odds: Sydney 1.27, Cairns Taipans 3.60.
- Apr 5: Sydney 113, Adelaide 101. After overtime. Won. No odds on record.
- Apr 1: Adelaide 92, Sydney 91. Lost. No odds on record.
- Mar 28: Sydney 106, Adelaide 93. Won. No odds on record.
- Mar 27: Adelaide 91, Sydney 89. Lost. No odds on record.
Illawarra Hawks
2-3 - Sep 25: Brisbane Bullets 103, Illawarra Hawks 95. Lost. Odds: Brisbane Bullets 1.90, Illawarra Hawks 1.85.
- Sep 20: New Zealand Breakers 95, Illawarra Hawks 81. Lost. Odds: New Zealand Breakers 2.21, Illawarra Hawks 1.64.
- Feb 18: Tasmania JackJumpers 70, Illawarra Hawks 103. Won. No odds on record.
- Feb 14: Melbourne United 91, Illawarra Hawks 100. Won. No odds on record.
- Feb 13: Illawarra Hawks 94, Sydney 120. Lost. No odds on record.
Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.
Key insights
- Rest advantage: 6 days off for Sydney, 1 for Illawarra Hawks.
- 1-4 away for Illawarra Hawks this season.
- 5-0 in the last 5 meetings for Sydney.
- Over/under moved up from 188.5 to 190.5 since it was first published.
- Net rating difference of 22.2 — Sydney +12.2 per 100 possessions, Illawarra Hawks −10.0.
How the odds moved
| Market | Open | Now |
|---|---|---|
| SYD moneyline | 1.20 | moved up 1.23 |
| ILL moneyline | 4.10 | moved down 3.91 |
| Total points | 188.5 | moved up 190.5 |
| SYD spread · regulation | −9.5 | −9.5 |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.
NBL standings
Regular Season
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Pct | PF | PA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sydney |
10 | 7 | 3 | .700 | 979 | 881 | +98 |
| 2 |  Tasmania JackJumpers |
10 | 7 | 3 | .700 | 956 | 908 | +48 |
| 3 |  Perth |
9 | 5 | 4 | .556 | 839 | 870 | −31 |
| 4 |  Cairns Taipans |
11 | 6 | 5 | .545 | 1014 | 1062 | −48 |
| 5 |  Melbourne United |
10 | 5 | 5 | .500 | 967 | 925 | +42 |
| 6 |  Brisbane Bullets |
10 | 5 | 5 | .500 | 938 | 967 | −29 |
| 7 |  Adelaide |
11 | 5 | 6 | .455 | 1001 | 1031 | −30 |
| 8 |  South East Melbourne |
10 | 4 | 6 | .400 | 969 | 943 | +26 |
| 9 |  New Zealand Breakers |
10 | 4 | 6 | .400 | 922 | 906 | +16 |
| 10 | Illawarra Hawks |
11 | 3 | 8 | .273 | 1057 | 1149 | −92 |
- Playoffs: Semi-finals
- Playoffs: Quarter-finals
Pct percentage of games won — the table is sorted by it. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.
Sydney host Illawarra Hawks in the NBL on Sunday, September 27, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.