Sydney vs Adelaide prediction
Sydney
18
26
12
22
Adelaide
18
23
20
23
All predictions
3 picks graded · Average confidence 61%Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.
The score the model expects. An estimate, not a bet we publish.
Sydney78100Adelaide8490Sydney78100Adelaide8490Total 190 Margin SYD by 10 Win SYD 75% Actual 162 · ADE won
Sydney
large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction Adelaide
Large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction
Rebounds
Other
Shooting
Sydney vs Adelaide
Sydney
Adelaide
Last 9 and 10 games with full stats · all competitions
Sydney at home, last 6 games · Adelaide away, last 7
Season record above, per-game averages below.
Head-to-head
Head-to-head record: Sydney 3, Adelaide 2.
- Average total 191.2 points per meeting
- Over 192.5 2 of 5 against this game’s total
- Last meeting SYD by 12 Apr 5, 2026
Meetings
- Apr 5, 2026 NBL Sydney 113–101 OT Adelaide 214 pts · OT
- Apr 1, 2026 NBL Adelaide 92–91 Sydney 183 pts
- Mar 28, 2026 NBL Sydney 106–93 Adelaide 199 pts
- Mar 27, 2026 NBL Adelaide 91–89 Sydney 180 pts
- Mar 21, 2026 NBL Sydney 112–68 Adelaide 180 pts
Last five games
Sydney
4-1 - Sep 30: Sydney 93, Brisbane Bullets 78. Won. Odds: Sydney 1.36, Brisbane Bullets 3.03.
- Sep 27: Sydney 121, Illawarra Hawks 100. Won. Odds: Sydney 1.23, Illawarra Hawks 3.91.
- Sep 20: Sydney 111, Cairns Taipans 90. Won. Odds: Sydney 1.27, Cairns Taipans 3.60.
- Apr 5: Sydney 113, Adelaide 101. After overtime. Won. No odds on record.
- Apr 1: Adelaide 92, Sydney 91. Lost. No odds on record.
Adelaide
1-4 - Oct 7: Adelaide 91, Melbourne United 96. Lost. Odds: Adelaide 2.40, Melbourne United 1.54.
- Oct 4: Adelaide 69, New Zealand Breakers 88. Lost. Odds: Adelaide 1.51, New Zealand Breakers 2.64.
- Oct 2: Illawarra Hawks 114, Adelaide 92. Lost. Odds: Illawarra Hawks 2.85, Adelaide 1.40.
- Sep 27: Adelaide 83, Cairns Taipans 69. Won. Odds: Adelaide 1.27, Cairns Taipans 3.55.
- Sep 24: Perth 98, Adelaide 97. Lost. Odds: Perth 2.03, Adelaide 1.76.
Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.
Key insights
- 4-game winning streak for Sydney coming into this game.
- 3-game losing streak for Adelaide coming into this game.
- Over/under moved up from 190.5 to 192.5 since it was first published.
- Net rating difference of 15.2 — Sydney +12.2 per 100 possessions, Adelaide −3.0.
- 3-2 in the last 5 meetings for Sydney.
How the odds moved
| Market | Open | Now |
|---|---|---|
| SYD moneyline | 1.28 | moved down 1.23 |
| ADE moneyline | 3.40 | moved up 3.85 |
| Total points | 190.5 | moved up 192.5 |
| SYD spread | −7.5 | moved down −8.5 |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.
NBL standings
Regular Season
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Pct | PF | PA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sydney |
10 | 7 | 3 | .700 | 979 | 881 | +98 |
| 2 |  Tasmania JackJumpers |
10 | 7 | 3 | .700 | 956 | 908 | +48 |
| 3 |  Perth |
9 | 5 | 4 | .556 | 839 | 870 | −31 |
| 4 |  Cairns Taipans |
11 | 6 | 5 | .545 | 1014 | 1062 | −48 |
| 5 |  Melbourne United |
10 | 5 | 5 | .500 | 967 | 925 | +42 |
| 6 |  Brisbane Bullets |
10 | 5 | 5 | .500 | 938 | 967 | −29 |
| 7 | Adelaide |
11 | 5 | 6 | .455 | 1001 | 1031 | −30 |
| 8 |  South East Melbourne |
10 | 4 | 6 | .400 | 969 | 943 | +26 |
| 9 |  New Zealand Breakers |
10 | 4 | 6 | .400 | 922 | 906 | +16 |
| 10 |  Illawarra Hawks |
11 | 3 | 8 | .273 | 1057 | 1149 | −92 |
- Playoffs: Semi-finals
- Playoffs: Quarter-finals
Pct percentage of games won — the table is sorted by it. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.
Sydney host Adelaide in the NBL on Sunday, October 11, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.