Sydney vs Adelaide Lightning Prediction & Odds

NBL Women Saturday, October 17, 2026Sat, Oct 17 Start22:00ET Round 1

SydneyHome · 4-1 · 2nd · 1.50

9517312225

Adelaide LightningAway · 1-3 · 7th · 2.02

6816251512

By quarter 1st 2nd 3rd 4th

Sydney 17 31 22 25

Adelaide Lightning 16 25 15 12

FT Quaycentre · AustraliaQuaycentre · Round 1

Best tip of the game

Point spread Lost

ADE +10.5 1.32 67%

Adelaide Lightning +10.5 on the spread edge −2.7%

Best tip of the game Point spread · Lost ADE +10.5 1.32 Adelaide Lightning +10.5 on the spread Confidence67% model 66.6% · market 69.3% edge −2.7%

All predictions

3 picks graded · Average confidence 63%

Picks for this game

Market PickOdds Model Market Edge Confidence Result

Moneyline 1 1.50 55.6% 56.2% −0.6% 56% Won

Total points O149.5 1.38 65.0% 66.3% −1.3% 65% Won

Point spread ADE +10.5 1.32 66.6% 69.3% −2.7% 67% Lost

Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

Sydney9580

Adelaide Lightning6877

Total 157 actual 163

Winning margin SYD by 3 actual SYD by 27

Chance to win SYD 56% SYD won

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

Sydney9580

Adelaide Lightning6877

Total 157 Margin SYD by 3 Win SYD 56% Actual 163 · SYD won

Predicted team stats

Prediction From 17+ games with full stats per team · no bookmaker odds

Sydney large = predicted · small = actual, above / below the prediction Adelaide Lightning

Large = predicted · small = actual, above / below the prediction

Rebounds

Other

Shooting

Sydney vs Adelaide Lightning

Sydney Adelaide Lightning

Last 25 and 24 games with full stats · all competitions

Season record above, per-game averages below.

Last five games

Sydney 1-4

Oct 16: Southside 73, Sydney 77. Won. Odds: Southside 2.38, Sydney 1.45.
Feb 7: Perth Lynx 108, Sydney 93. Lost. No odds on record.
Jan 31: Sydney 76, Geelong Venom 89. Lost. No odds on record.
Jan 24: Sydney 57, Perth Lynx 76. Lost. No odds on record.
Jan 16: Geelong Venom 105, Sydney 77. Lost. No odds on record.

Adelaide Lightning 1-4

Feb 7: Adelaide Lightning 64, Southside 77. Lost. No odds on record.
Jan 30: Southside 82, Adelaide Lightning 77. Lost. No odds on record.
Jan 23: Geelong Venom 78, Adelaide Lightning 85. Won. No odds on record.
Jan 20: Adelaide Lightning 61, Canberra Capitals 67. Lost. No odds on record.
Jan 17: Southside 82, Adelaide Lightning 58. Lost. No odds on record.

Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.

How the odds moved

Market	Open	Now
SYD moneyline	1.65	moved down 1.50
ADE moneyline	2.12	moved down 2.02
Total points	156.5	moved up 158.5
SYD spread	−2.5	moved down −3.5

Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.

NBL Women standings

Regular Season

#	Team	GP	W	L	Pct	PF	PA	+/−
1	Perth Lynx	2	2	0	1.000	176	165	+11
2	Sydney	5	4	1	.800	429	381	+48
3	Tasmania Jewels	3	2	1	.667	273	266	+7
4	Canberra Capitals	3	2	1	.667	241	242	−1
5	Townsville	4	2	2	.500	337	312	+25
6	Geelong Venom	4	2	2	.500	309	319	−10
7	Adelaide Lightning	4	1	3	.250	299	345	−46
8	Southside	4	1	3	.250	307	309	−2
9	Bendigo	3	0	3	.000	230	262	−32

Playoffs: Semi-finals

Pct percentage of games won — the table is sorted by it. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.

Sydney host Adelaide Lightning in the NBL Women on Saturday, October 17, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.