Southside vs Adelaide Lightning prediction
Southside
22
15
17
20
Adelaide Lightning
27
20
12
22
All predictions
3 picks graded · Average confidence 73%Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.
The score the model expects. An estimate, not a bet we publish.
Southside7484Adelaide Lightning8172Southside7484Adelaide Lightning8172Total 156 Margin SOU by 12 Win SOU 75% Actual 155 · ADE won
Southside
large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction Adelaide Lightning
Large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction
Rebounds
Other
Shooting
Southside vs Adelaide Lightning
Southside
Adelaide Lightning
Last 27 and 24 games with full stats · all competitions
Southside at home, last 13 games · Adelaide Lightning away, last 12
Season record above, per-game averages below.
Head-to-head
Head-to-head record: Southside 4, Adelaide Lightning 0.
- Average total 149.3 points per meeting
- Over 157.5 1 of 4 against this game’s total
- Last meeting SOU by 13 Feb 7, 2026
Meetings
- Feb 7, 2026 NBL Women Adelaide Lightning 64–77 Southside 141 pts
- Jan 30, 2026 NBL Women Southside 82–77 Adelaide Lightning 159 pts
- Jan 17, 2026 NBL Women Southside 82–58 Adelaide Lightning 140 pts
- Dec 27, 2025 NBL Women Southside 85–72 Adelaide Lightning 157 pts
Last five games
Southside
2-3 - Oct 24: Geelong Venom 74, Southside 69. Lost. Odds: Geelong Venom 1.42, Southside 2.45.
- Oct 22: Southside 91, Tasmania Jewels 75. Won. Odds: Southside 2.12, Tasmania Jewels 1.57.
- Oct 16: Southside 73, Sydney 77. Lost. Odds: Southside 2.38, Sydney 1.45.
- Feb 22: Townsville 84, Southside 74. Lost. No odds on record.
- Feb 18: Southside 109, Townsville 89. Won. No odds on record.
Adelaide Lightning
0-5 - Oct 24: Adelaide Lightning 82, Perth Lynx 90. Lost. Odds: Adelaide Lightning 3.15, Perth Lynx 1.26.
- Oct 20: Adelaide Lightning 68, Townsville 86. Lost. Odds: Adelaide Lightning 3.85, Townsville 1.16.
- Oct 17: Sydney 95, Adelaide Lightning 68. Lost. Odds: Sydney 1.50, Adelaide Lightning 2.02.
- Feb 7: Adelaide Lightning 64, Southside 77. Lost. No odds on record.
- Jan 30: Southside 82, Adelaide Lightning 77. Lost. No odds on record.
Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.
Key insights
- 5-game losing streak for Adelaide Lightning coming into this game.
- Odds moved: the odds on Adelaide Lightning dropped from 2.23 to 2.00 since they were first published.
- 4-0 in the last 4 meetings for Southside.
- Over/under moved down from 160.5 to 157.5 since it was first published.
- Net rating difference of 11.7 — Southside −0.8 per 100 possessions, Adelaide Lightning −12.5.
How the odds moved
| Market | Open | Now |
|---|---|---|
| SOU moneyline | 1.52 | moved up 1.67 |
| ADE moneyline | 2.23 | moved down 2.00 |
| Total points | 160.5 | moved down 157.5 |
| SOU spread | −4.5 | −4.5 |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.
NBL Women standings
Regular Season
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Pct | PF | PA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Perth Lynx |
2 | 2 | 0 | 1.000 | 176 | 165 | +11 |
| 2 |  Sydney |
5 | 4 | 1 | .800 | 429 | 381 | +48 |
| 3 |  Tasmania Jewels |
3 | 2 | 1 | .667 | 273 | 266 | +7 |
| 4 |  Canberra Capitals |
3 | 2 | 1 | .667 | 241 | 242 | −1 |
| 5 |  Townsville |
4 | 2 | 2 | .500 | 337 | 312 | +25 |
| 6 | Geelong Venom | 4 | 2 | 2 | .500 | 309 | 319 | −10 |
| 7 | Adelaide Lightning |
4 | 1 | 3 | .250 | 299 | 345 | −46 |
| 8 | Southside |
4 | 1 | 3 | .250 | 307 | 309 | −2 |
| 9 |  Bendigo |
3 | 0 | 3 | .000 | 230 | 262 | −32 |
- Playoffs: Semi-finals
Pct percentage of games won — the table is sorted by it. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.
Southside host Adelaide Lightning in the NBL Women on Saturday, October 31, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.