South East Melbourne vs Melbourne United Prediction & Odds — Oct 10

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NBL Saturday, October 10, 2026Sat, Oct 10 Start04:30ET Round 4

South East MelbourneHome · 4-6 · 8th · 2.18

9930232125

Melbourne UnitedAway · 5-5 · 5th · 1.72

10417282930

By quarter 1st 2nd 3rd 4th

South East Melbourne 30 23 21 25

Melbourne United 17 28 29 30

FT John Cain Arena · AustraliaJohn Cain Arena · Round 4

Best tip of the game

Moneyline Won

2 1.71 51%

Melbourne United to win edge −13.3%

Best tip of the game Moneyline · Won 2 1.71 Melbourne United to win Confidence51% model 46.1% · market 59.4% edge −13.3%

All predictions

3 picks graded · Average confidence 56%

Picks for this game

Market PickOdds Model Market Edge Confidence Result

Moneyline 2 1.71 46.1% 59.4% −13.3% 51% Won

Total points U186.5 2.42 59.0% 49.5% +9.5% 65% Lost

Point spread SEM +3.5 1.74 42.9% 49.6% −6.7% 51% Lost

Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

South East Melbourne9987

Melbourne United10490

Total 177 actual 203

Winning margin MEL by 3 actual MEL by 5

Chance to win MEL 56% MEL won

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

South East Melbourne9987

Melbourne United10490

Total 177 Margin MEL by 3 Win MEL 56% Actual 203 · MEL won

Predicted team stats

Prediction From 5+ games with full stats per team · no bookmaker odds

South East Melbourne large = predicted · small = actual, above / below the prediction Melbourne United

Large = predicted · small = actual, above / below the prediction

Rebounds

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Shooting

South East Melbourne vs Melbourne United

South East Melbourne Melbourne United

Last 9 and 10 games with full stats · all competitions

Season record above, per-game averages below.

Last five games

South East Melbourne 2-3

Oct 4: South East Melbourne 113, Illawarra Hawks 96. Won. Odds: South East Melbourne 1.60, Illawarra Hawks 2.27.
Oct 2: Perth 92, South East Melbourne 88. Lost. Odds: Perth 2.58, South East Melbourne 1.48.
Sep 24: South East Melbourne 61, Melbourne United 86. Lost. Odds: South East Melbourne 2.10, Melbourne United 1.70.
Sep 21: Tasmania JackJumpers 96, South East Melbourne 91. Lost. Odds: Tasmania JackJumpers 2.55, South East Melbourne 1.47.
Sep 19: Perth 79, South East Melbourne 100. Won. Odds: Perth 1.67, South East Melbourne 2.15.

Melbourne United 2-3

Oct 7: Adelaide 91, Melbourne United 96. Won. Odds: Adelaide 2.40, Melbourne United 1.54.
Oct 3: Melbourne United 95, Cairns Taipans 107. Lost. Odds: Melbourne United 1.17, Cairns Taipans 4.77.
Oct 1: Tasmania JackJumpers 84, Melbourne United 82. Lost. Odds: Tasmania JackJumpers 3.00, Melbourne United 1.36.
Sep 24: South East Melbourne 61, Melbourne United 86. Won. Odds: South East Melbourne 2.10, Melbourne United 1.70.
Sep 19: Melbourne United 95, Adelaide 97. Lost. Odds: Melbourne United 1.43, Adelaide 2.76.

Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.

How the odds moved

Market	Open	Now
SEM moneyline	2.30	moved down 2.18
MEL moneyline	1.55	moved up 1.72
Total points	186.5	moved up 191.5
SEM spread	+3.5	moved down +2.5

Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.

NBL standings

Regular Season

#	Team	GP	W	L	Pct	PF	PA	+/−
1	Sydney	10	7	3	.700	979	881	+98
2	Tasmania JackJumpers	10	7	3	.700	956	908	+48
3	Perth	9	5	4	.556	839	870	−31
4	Cairns Taipans	11	6	5	.545	1014	1062	−48
5	Melbourne United	10	5	5	.500	967	925	+42
6	Brisbane Bullets	10	5	5	.500	938	967	−29
7	Adelaide	11	5	6	.455	1001	1031	−30
8	South East Melbourne	10	4	6	.400	969	943	+26
9	New Zealand Breakers	10	4	6	.400	922	906	+16
10	Illawarra Hawks	11	3	8	.273	1057	1149	−92

Playoffs: Semi-finals
Playoffs: Quarter-finals

Pct percentage of games won — the table is sorted by it. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.

South East Melbourne host Melbourne United in the NBL on Saturday, October 10, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.