South East Melbourne vs Melbourne United prediction
South East Melbourne
14
21
22
4
Melbourne United
16
29
24
17
All predictions
3 picks graded · Average confidence 72%Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.
The score the model expects. An estimate, not a bet we publish.
South East Melbourne61101Melbourne United8690South East Melbourne61101Melbourne United8690Total 191 Margin SEM by 11 Win SEM 79% Actual 147 · MEL won
South East Melbourne
large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction Melbourne United
Large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction
Rebounds
Other
Shooting
South East Melbourne vs Melbourne United
South East Melbourne
Melbourne United
Last 9 and 10 games with full stats · all competitions
South East Melbourne at home, last 5 games · Melbourne United away, last 6
Season record above, per-game averages below.
Head-to-head
Head-to-head record: South East Melbourne 1, Melbourne United 4.
- Average total 189.0 points per meeting
- Over 193.5 2 of 5 against this game’s total
- Last meeting MEL by 5 Oct 10, 2026
Meetings
- Oct 10, 2026 NBL South East Melbourne 99–104 Melbourne United 203 pts
- Feb 19, 2026 NBL Melbourne United 95–91 South East Melbourne 186 pts
- Dec 6, 2025 NBL South East Melbourne 111–86 Melbourne United 197 pts
- Nov 8, 2025 NBL South East Melbourne 81–92 Melbourne United 173 pts
- Sep 25, 2025 NBL Melbourne United 103–83 South East Melbourne 186 pts
Last five games
South East Melbourne
2-3 - Sep 21: Tasmania JackJumpers 96, South East Melbourne 91. Lost. Odds: Tasmania JackJumpers 2.55, South East Melbourne 1.47.
- Sep 19: Perth 79, South East Melbourne 100. Won. Odds: Perth 1.67, South East Melbourne 2.15.
- Mar 17: Adelaide 108, South East Melbourne 96. Lost. No odds on record.
- Mar 14: South East Melbourne 101, Adelaide 92. Won. No odds on record.
- Mar 10: Adelaide 104, South East Melbourne 97. Lost. No odds on record.
Melbourne United
2-3 - Sep 19: Melbourne United 95, Adelaide 97. Lost. Odds: Melbourne United 1.43, Adelaide 2.76.
- Mar 7: Perth 95, Melbourne United 77. Lost. No odds on record.
- Mar 5: Melbourne United 82, Tasmania JackJumpers 68. Won. No odds on record.
- Feb 19: Melbourne United 95, South East Melbourne 91. Won. No odds on record.
- Feb 14: Melbourne United 91, Illawarra Hawks 100. Lost. No odds on record.
Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.
Key insights
- Rest advantage: 4 days off for Melbourne United, 2 for South East Melbourne.
- Over/under moved up from 187.5 to 193.5 since it was first published.
- 4-1 in the last 5 meetings for Melbourne United.
- 189.0 points per meeting across the last 5 head-to-head games; the over/under line is 193.5.
- 8th vs 5th in the NBL standings.
How the odds moved
| Market | Open | Now |
|---|---|---|
| SEM moneyline | 2.28 | moved down 2.10 |
| MEL moneyline | 1.58 | moved up 1.70 |
| Total points | 187.5 | moved up 193.5 |
| SEM spread · regulation | +3.5 | moved down +2.5 |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.
NBL standings
Regular Season
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Pct | PF | PA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sydney |
10 | 7 | 3 | .700 | 979 | 881 | +98 |
| 2 |  Tasmania JackJumpers |
10 | 7 | 3 | .700 | 956 | 908 | +48 |
| 3 |  Perth |
9 | 5 | 4 | .556 | 839 | 870 | −31 |
| 4 |  Cairns Taipans |
11 | 6 | 5 | .545 | 1014 | 1062 | −48 |
| 5 | Melbourne United |
10 | 5 | 5 | .500 | 967 | 925 | +42 |
| 6 |  Brisbane Bullets |
10 | 5 | 5 | .500 | 938 | 967 | −29 |
| 7 |  Adelaide |
11 | 5 | 6 | .455 | 1001 | 1031 | −30 |
| 8 | South East Melbourne |
10 | 4 | 6 | .400 | 969 | 943 | +26 |
| 9 |  New Zealand Breakers |
10 | 4 | 6 | .400 | 922 | 906 | +16 |
| 10 |  Illawarra Hawks |
11 | 3 | 8 | .273 | 1057 | 1149 | −92 |
- Playoffs: Semi-finals
- Playoffs: Quarter-finals
Pct percentage of games won — the table is sorted by it. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.
South East Melbourne host Melbourne United in the NBL on Thursday, September 24, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.