South East Melbourne vs Illawarra Hawks Prediction & Odds — Oct 4

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NBL Sunday, October 4, 2026Sun, Oct 4 Start00:05ET Round 3

South East MelbourneHome · 4-6 · 8th · 1.60

11323362628

Illawarra HawksAway · 3-8 · 10th · 2.27

9623183223

By quarter 1st 2nd 3rd 4th

South East Melbourne 23 36 26 28

Illawarra Hawks 23 18 32 23

FT John Cain Arena · AustraliaJohn Cain Arena · Round 3

Best tip of the game

Point spread Won

SEM +6.5 1.25 81%

South East Melbourne +6.5 on the spread edge −7.7%

Best tip of the game Point spread · Won SEM +6.5 1.25 South East Melbourne +6.5 on the spread Confidence81% model 65.7% · market 73.4% edge −7.7%

All predictions

3 picks graded · Average confidence 81%

Picks for this game

Market PickOdds Model Market Edge Confidence Result

Moneyline 1 1.60 61.4% 55.3% +6.1% 73% Won

Total points O181.5 1.33 86.5% 70.3% +16.2% 89% Won

Point spread SEM +6.5 1.25 65.7% 73.4% −7.7% 81% Won

Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

South East Melbourne113104

Illawarra Hawks9699

Total 203 actual 209

Winning margin SEM by 5 actual SEM by 17

Chance to win SEM 61% SEM won

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

South East Melbourne113104

Illawarra Hawks9699

Total 203 Margin SEM by 5 Win SEM 61% Actual 209 · SEM won

Predicted team stats

Prediction From 18+ games with full stats per team · no bookmaker odds

South East Melbourne large = predicted · small = actual, above / below the prediction Illawarra Hawks

Large = predicted · small = actual, above / below the prediction

Rebounds

Other

Shooting

South East Melbourne vs Illawarra Hawks

South East Melbourne Illawarra Hawks

Last 9 and 11 games with full stats · all competitions

Season record above, per-game averages below.

Last five games

South East Melbourne 1-4

Oct 2: Perth 92, South East Melbourne 88. Lost. Odds: Perth 2.58, South East Melbourne 1.48.
Sep 24: South East Melbourne 61, Melbourne United 86. Lost. Odds: South East Melbourne 2.10, Melbourne United 1.70.
Sep 21: Tasmania JackJumpers 96, South East Melbourne 91. Lost. Odds: Tasmania JackJumpers 2.55, South East Melbourne 1.47.
Sep 19: Perth 79, South East Melbourne 100. Won. Odds: Perth 1.67, South East Melbourne 2.15.
Mar 17: Adelaide 108, South East Melbourne 96. Lost. No odds on record.

Illawarra Hawks 2-3

Oct 2: Illawarra Hawks 114, Adelaide 92. Won. Odds: Illawarra Hawks 2.85, Adelaide 1.40.
Sep 27: Sydney 121, Illawarra Hawks 100. Lost. Odds: Sydney 1.23, Illawarra Hawks 3.91.
Sep 25: Brisbane Bullets 103, Illawarra Hawks 95. Lost. Odds: Brisbane Bullets 1.90, Illawarra Hawks 1.85.
Sep 20: New Zealand Breakers 95, Illawarra Hawks 81. Lost. Odds: New Zealand Breakers 2.21, Illawarra Hawks 1.64.
Feb 18: Tasmania JackJumpers 70, Illawarra Hawks 103. Won. No odds on record.

Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.

How the odds moved

Market	Open	Now
SEM moneyline	1.65	moved down 1.60
ILL moneyline	2.10	moved up 2.27
Total points	191.5	moved up 195.5
SEM spread	−2.5	moved down −3.5

Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.

NBL standings

Regular Season

#	Team	GP	W	L	Pct	PF	PA	+/−
1	Sydney	10	7	3	.700	979	881	+98
2	Tasmania JackJumpers	10	7	3	.700	956	908	+48
3	Perth	9	5	4	.556	839	870	−31
4	Cairns Taipans	11	6	5	.545	1014	1062	−48
5	Melbourne United	10	5	5	.500	967	925	+42
6	Brisbane Bullets	10	5	5	.500	938	967	−29
7	Adelaide	11	5	6	.455	1001	1031	−30
8	South East Melbourne	10	4	6	.400	969	943	+26
9	New Zealand Breakers	10	4	6	.400	922	906	+16
10	Illawarra Hawks	11	3	8	.273	1057	1149	−92

Playoffs: Semi-finals
Playoffs: Quarter-finals

Pct percentage of games won — the table is sorted by it. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.

South East Melbourne host Illawarra Hawks in the NBL on Sunday, October 4, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.