South East Melbourne vs Cairns Taipans prediction
South East Melbourne
27
35
27
26
Cairns Taipans
35
19
9
20
All predictions
3 picks graded · Average confidence 74%Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.
The score the model expects. An estimate, not a bet we publish.
South East Melbourne11594Cairns Taipans8395South East Melbourne11594Cairns Taipans8395Total 189 Margin CAI by 1 Win CAI 51% Actual 198 · SEM won
South East Melbourne
large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction Cairns Taipans
Large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction
Rebounds
Other
Shooting
South East Melbourne vs Cairns Taipans
South East Melbourne
Cairns Taipans
Last 9 and 11 games with full stats · all competitions
South East Melbourne at home, last 5 games · Cairns Taipans away, last 7
Season record above, per-game averages below.
Head-to-head
Head-to-head record: South East Melbourne 4, Cairns Taipans 0.
- Average total 199.5 points per meeting
- Over 195.5 2 of 4 against this game’s total
- Last meeting SEM by 27 Jan 24, 2026
Meetings
- Jan 24, 2026 NBL South East Melbourne 118–91 Cairns Taipans 209 pts
- Dec 31, 2025 NBL Cairns Taipans 96–111 South East Melbourne 207 pts
- Nov 14, 2025 NBL Cairns Taipans 90–101 South East Melbourne 191 pts
- Sep 20, 2025 NBL South East Melbourne 114–77 Cairns Taipans 191 pts
Last five games
South East Melbourne
1-4 - Oct 15: Brisbane Bullets 115, South East Melbourne 105. Lost. Odds: Brisbane Bullets 2.50, South East Melbourne 1.31.
- Oct 10: South East Melbourne 99, Melbourne United 104. Lost. Odds: South East Melbourne 2.18, Melbourne United 1.72.
- Oct 4: South East Melbourne 113, Illawarra Hawks 96. Won. Odds: South East Melbourne 1.60, Illawarra Hawks 2.27.
- Oct 2: Perth 92, South East Melbourne 88. Lost. Odds: Perth 2.58, South East Melbourne 1.48.
- Sep 24: South East Melbourne 61, Melbourne United 86. Lost. Odds: South East Melbourne 2.10, Melbourne United 1.70.
Cairns Taipans
3-2 - Oct 11: Illawarra Hawks 100, Cairns Taipans 110. Won. Odds: Illawarra Hawks 1.74, Cairns Taipans 2.05.
- Oct 8: Cairns Taipans 97, Brisbane Bullets 91. Won. Odds: Cairns Taipans 1.60, Brisbane Bullets 2.25.
- Oct 3: Melbourne United 95, Cairns Taipans 107. Won. Odds: Melbourne United 1.17, Cairns Taipans 4.77.
- Sep 30: New Zealand Breakers 98, Cairns Taipans 75. Lost. Odds: New Zealand Breakers 1.51, Cairns Taipans 2.48.
- Sep 27: Adelaide 83, Cairns Taipans 69. Lost. Odds: Adelaide 1.27, Cairns Taipans 3.55.
Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.
Key insights
- 3-game winning streak for Cairns Taipans coming into this game.
- Odds moved: the odds on South East Melbourne dropped from 1.68 to 1.38 since they were first published.
- Rest advantage: 5 days off for Cairns Taipans, 1 for South East Melbourne.
- 4-0 in the last 4 meetings for South East Melbourne.
- Over/under moved up from 192.5 to 195.5 since it was first published.
How the odds moved
| Market | Open | Now |
|---|---|---|
| SEM moneyline | 1.68 | moved down 1.38 |
| CAI moneyline | 2.10 | moved up 2.90 |
| Total points | 192.5 | moved up 195.5 |
| SEM spread | −3.5 | moved down −5.5 |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.
NBL standings
Regular Season
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Pct | PF | PA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sydney |
10 | 7 | 3 | .700 | 979 | 881 | +98 |
| 2 |  Tasmania JackJumpers |
10 | 7 | 3 | .700 | 956 | 908 | +48 |
| 3 |  Perth |
9 | 5 | 4 | .556 | 839 | 870 | −31 |
| 4 | Cairns Taipans |
11 | 6 | 5 | .545 | 1014 | 1062 | −48 |
| 5 |  Melbourne United |
10 | 5 | 5 | .500 | 967 | 925 | +42 |
| 6 |  Brisbane Bullets |
10 | 5 | 5 | .500 | 938 | 967 | −29 |
| 7 |  Adelaide |
11 | 5 | 6 | .455 | 1001 | 1031 | −30 |
| 8 | South East Melbourne |
10 | 4 | 6 | .400 | 969 | 943 | +26 |
| 9 |  New Zealand Breakers |
10 | 4 | 6 | .400 | 922 | 906 | +16 |
| 10 |  Illawarra Hawks |
11 | 3 | 8 | .273 | 1057 | 1149 | −92 |
- Playoffs: Semi-finals
- Playoffs: Quarter-finals
Pct percentage of games won — the table is sorted by it. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.
South East Melbourne host Cairns Taipans in the NBL on Saturday, October 17, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.