South East Melbourne vs Adelaide Prediction & Odds — Oct 24

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NBL Saturday, October 24, 2026Sat, Oct 24 Start04:30ET Round 6

South East MelbourneHome · 4-6 · 8th · 1.71

10842301422

AdelaideAway · 5-6 · 7th · 2.06

9425182922

By quarter 1st 2nd 3rd 4th

South East Melbourne 42 30 14 22

Adelaide 25 18 29 22

FT John Cain Arena · AustraliaJohn Cain Arena · Round 6

Best tip of the game

Point spread Won

SEM +6.5 1.28 76%

South East Melbourne +6.5 on the spread edge −8.6%

Best tip of the game Point spread · Won SEM +6.5 1.28 South East Melbourne +6.5 on the spread Confidence76% model 63.1% · market 71.7% edge −8.6%

All predictions

3 picks graded · Average confidence 75%

Picks for this game

Market PickOdds Model Market Edge Confidence Result

Moneyline 1 1.71 56.3% 53.9% +2.4% 63% Won

Total points U198.5 1.43 78.8% 69.3% +9.5% 85% Lost

Point spread SEM +6.5 1.28 63.1% 71.7% −8.6% 76% Won

Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

South East Melbourne10893

Adelaide9490

Total 183 actual 202

Winning margin SEM by 3 actual SEM by 14

Chance to win SEM 56% SEM won

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

South East Melbourne10893

Adelaide9490

Total 183 Margin SEM by 3 Win SEM 56% Actual 202 · SEM won

Predicted team stats

Prediction From 8+ games with full stats per team · no bookmaker odds

South East Melbourne large = predicted · small = actual, above / below the prediction Adelaide

Large = predicted · small = actual, above / below the prediction

Rebounds

Other

Shooting

South East Melbourne vs Adelaide

South East Melbourne Adelaide

Last 9 and 10 games with full stats · all competitions

Season record above, per-game averages below.

Last five games

South East Melbourne 2-3

Oct 17: South East Melbourne 115, Cairns Taipans 83. Won. Odds: South East Melbourne 1.38, Cairns Taipans 2.90.
Oct 15: Brisbane Bullets 115, South East Melbourne 105. Lost. Odds: Brisbane Bullets 2.50, South East Melbourne 1.31.
Oct 10: South East Melbourne 99, Melbourne United 104. Lost. Odds: South East Melbourne 2.18, Melbourne United 1.72.
Oct 4: South East Melbourne 113, Illawarra Hawks 96. Won. Odds: South East Melbourne 1.60, Illawarra Hawks 2.27.
Oct 2: Perth 92, South East Melbourne 88. Lost. Odds: Perth 2.58, South East Melbourne 1.48.

Adelaide 2-3

Oct 16: Tasmania JackJumpers 88, Adelaide 94. Won. Odds: Tasmania JackJumpers 1.49, Adelaide 2.50.
Oct 11: Sydney 78, Adelaide 84. Won. Odds: Sydney 1.23, Adelaide 3.85.
Oct 7: Adelaide 91, Melbourne United 96. Lost. Odds: Adelaide 2.40, Melbourne United 1.54.
Oct 4: Adelaide 69, New Zealand Breakers 88. Lost. Odds: Adelaide 1.51, New Zealand Breakers 2.64.
Oct 2: Illawarra Hawks 114, Adelaide 92. Lost. Odds: Illawarra Hawks 2.85, Adelaide 1.40.

Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.

How the odds moved

Market	Open	Now
SEM moneyline	1.75	moved down 1.71
ADE moneyline	1.91	moved up 2.06
Total points	188.5	moved up 190.5
SEM spread	−1.5	moved down −2.5

Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.

NBL standings

Regular Season

#	Team	GP	W	L	Pct	PF	PA	+/−
1	Sydney	10	7	3	.700	979	881	+98
2	Tasmania JackJumpers	10	7	3	.700	956	908	+48
3	Perth	9	5	4	.556	839	870	−31
4	Cairns Taipans	11	6	5	.545	1014	1062	−48
5	Melbourne United	10	5	5	.500	967	925	+42
6	Brisbane Bullets	10	5	5	.500	938	967	−29
7	Adelaide	11	5	6	.455	1001	1031	−30
8	South East Melbourne	10	4	6	.400	969	943	+26
9	New Zealand Breakers	10	4	6	.400	922	906	+16
10	Illawarra Hawks	11	3	8	.273	1057	1149	−92

Playoffs: Semi-finals
Playoffs: Quarter-finals

Pct percentage of games won — the table is sorted by it. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.

South East Melbourne host Adelaide in the NBL on Saturday, October 24, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.