Santos vs Freseros Prediction & Odds

LNBP Thursday, October 1, 2026Thu, Oct 1 Start22:00ET

SantosHome · 11-17 · 11th · 1.57

9622321824

FreserosAway · 9-19 · 13th · 2.25

8128221318

By quarter 1st 2nd 3rd 4th

Santos 22 32 18 24

Freseros 28 22 13 18

FT Auditorio Miguel Barragán · MexicoAuditorio Miguel Barragán

Best tip of the game

Moneyline Won

1 1.57 55%

Santos to win edge −4.7%

Best tip of the game Moneyline · Won 1 1.57 Santos to win Confidence55% model 53.2% · market 57.9% edge −4.7%

All predictions

3 picks graded · Average confidence 56%

Picks for this game

Market PickOdds Model Market Edge Confidence Result

Moneyline 1 1.57 53.2% 57.9% −4.7% 55% Won

Total points U179.5 1.72 62.8% 53.8% +9.0% 58% Won

Point spread FRE +2.5 1.91 53.1% 48.5% +4.6% 55% Lost

Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

Santos9687

Freseros8186

Total 173 actual 177

Winning margin SAN by 1 actual SAN by 15

Chance to win SAN 53% SAN won

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

Santos9687

Freseros8186

Total 173 Margin SAN by 1 Win SAN 53% Actual 177 · SAN won

Predicted team stats

Prediction From 19+ games with full stats per team · no bookmaker odds

Santos large = predicted · small = actual, above / below the prediction Freseros

Large = predicted · small = actual, above / below the prediction

Rebounds

Other

Shooting

Santos vs Freseros

Santos Freseros

Last 28 and 26 games with full stats · all competitions

Season record above, per-game averages below.

Last five games

Santos 2-3

Sep 26: Abejas 92, Santos 78. Lost. Odds: Abejas 1.36, Santos 2.80.
Sep 25: Abejas 86, Santos 87. Won. Odds: Abejas 1.47, Santos 2.52.
Sep 21: Santos 84, Lobos Plateados 99. Lost. Odds: Santos 2.18, Lobos Plateados 1.60.
Sep 20: Santos 86, Lobos Plateados 95. Lost. Odds: Santos 2.30, Lobos Plateados 1.55.
Sep 16: Gambusinos 78, Santos 109. Won. Odds: Gambusinos 1.93, Santos 1.78.

Freseros 1-4

Sep 26: Freseros 88, Panteras 97. Lost. Odds: Freseros 1.95, Panteras 1.72.
Sep 25: Freseros 87, Panteras 94. Lost. Odds: Freseros 2.52, Panteras 1.47.
Sep 21: Abejas 57, Freseros 63. Won. Odds: Abejas 1.42, Freseros 2.65.
Sep 20: Abejas 97, Freseros 80. Lost. Odds: Abejas 1.60, Freseros 2.20.
Sep 15: Freseros 63, Soles 92. Lost. Odds: Freseros 2.22, Soles 1.60.

Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.

How the odds moved

Market	Open	Now
SAN moneyline	1.60	moved down 1.57
FRE moneyline	2.20	moved up 2.25
Total points	177.5	177.5
SAN spread · regulation	−2.5	moved down −3.5

Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.

LNBP standings

Regular Season

#	Team	GP	W	L	Pts	PF	PA	+/−
1	Soles	28	21	7	49	2382	2090	+292
2	Astros	28	20	8	48	2473	2246	+227
3	Fuerza Regia	28	19	9	47	2512	2381	+131
4	Panteras	28	19	9	47	2477	2379	+98
5	Lobos Plateados	28	18	10	46	2366	2251	+115
6	Dorados	28	17	11	45	2409	2368	+41
7	Mineros	28	15	13	43	2411	2371	+40
8	Abejas	28	12	16	40	2389	2392	−3
9	Diablos Rojos	28	11	17	39	2293	2370	−77
10	Gambusinos	28	11	17	39	2233	2327	−94
11	Santos	28	11	17	39	2367	2497	−130
12	El Calor de Cancun	28	9	19	37	2276	2384	−108
13	Freseros	28	9	19	37	2379	2586	−207
14	Correcaminos	28	4	24	32	2309	2634	−325

Playoffs: Quarter-finals
Playoffs: 1/8-finals

Pts standings points: 2 for a win, 1 for a loss — the table is sorted by them. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.

Santos host Freseros in the LNBP on Thursday, October 1, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.