San Miguel Beermen vs NLEX Road Warriors prediction
San Miguel Beermen
30
30
36
39
NLEX Road Warriors
32
36
44
21
All predictions
3 picks graded · Average confidence 56%Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.
The score the model expects. An estimate, not a bet we publish.
San Miguel Beermen135112NLEX Road Warriors133112San Miguel Beermen135112NLEX Road Warriors133112Total 224 Win SMB 50% Actual 268 · SMB won
San Miguel Beermen vs NLEX Road Warriors
San Miguel Beermen
NLEX Road Warriors
Head-to-head
Head-to-head record: San Miguel Beermen 1, NLEX Road Warriors 2.
- Average total 219.7 points per meeting
- Over 224.5 1 of 3 against this game’s total
- Last meeting NRW by 14 Jul 26, 2026
Meetings
- Jul 26, 2026 Governors Cup NLEX Road Warriors 110–96 San Miguel Beermen 206 pts
- Sep 11, 2024 Governors Cup NLEX Road Warriors 114–119 San Miguel Beermen 233 pts
- Aug 31, 2024 Governors Cup San Miguel Beermen 108–112 OT NLEX Road Warriors 220 pts · OT
Last five games
San Miguel Beermen
4-1 - Oct 14: Terrafirma Dyip 105, San Miguel Beermen 135. Won. Odds: Terrafirma Dyip 4.35, San Miguel Beermen 1.08.
- Oct 10: TNT Tropang 5G 116, San Miguel Beermen 98. Lost. Odds: TNT Tropang 5G 2.00, San Miguel Beermen 1.52.
- Aug 12: Titan Ultra Giant Risers 113, San Miguel Beermen 143. Won. No odds on record.
- Aug 8: Macau Black Bears 79, San Miguel Beermen 131. Won. No odds on record.
- Aug 5: San Miguel Beermen 126, Converge FiberXers 114. Won. No odds on record.
NLEX Road Warriors
3-2 - Oct 14: NLEX Road Warriors 147, Titan Ultra Giant Risers 115. Won. Odds: NLEX Road Warriors 1.14, Titan Ultra Giant Risers 5.00.
- Oct 7: NLEX Road Warriors 138, Macau Black Bears 78. Won. No odds on record.
- Aug 14: Converge FiberXers 112, NLEX Road Warriors 110. Lost. No odds on record.
- Aug 11: NLEX Road Warriors 118, TNT Tropang 5G 111. After overtime. Won. No odds on record.
- Aug 7: Terrafirma Dyip 114, NLEX Road Warriors 109. Lost. No odds on record.
Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.
Key insights
- 5-1 at home for San Miguel Beermen this season.
- Over/under moved up from 222.5 to 224.5 since it was first published.
- 2-1 in the last 3 meetings for NLEX Road Warriors.
- 4-1 in the last five for San Miguel Beermen.
- 219.7 points per meeting across the last 3 head-to-head games; the over/under line is 224.5.
How the odds moved
| Market | Open | Now |
|---|---|---|
| SMB moneyline | 1.64 | moved down 1.55 |
| NRW moneyline | 1.97 | moved up 2.30 |
| Total points | 222.5 | moved up 224.5 |
| SMB spread | −2.5 | moved down −3.5 |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.
Governors Cup standings
Regular Season · Group A
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Pts | PF | PA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NLEX Road Warriors |
12 | 9 | 3 | 21 | 1422 | 1226 | +196 |
| 2 | San Miguel Beermen |
12 | 9 | 3 | 21 | 1456 | 1303 | +153 |
| 3 |  Converge FiberXers |
12 | 8 | 4 | 20 | 1469 | 1336 | +133 |
| 4 |  TNT Tropang 5G |
12 | 7 | 5 | 19 | 1296 | 1190 | +106 |
| 5 |  Terrafirma Dyip |
12 | 5 | 7 | 17 | 1332 | 1341 | −9 |
| 6 |  Macau Black Bears |
12 | 2 | 10 | 14 | 1246 | 1561 | −315 |
| 7 |  Titan Ultra Giant Risers |
12 | 2 | 10 | 14 | 1284 | 1548 | −264 |
- Playoffs: Quarter-finals
Pts standings points: 2 for a win, 1 for a loss — the table is sorted by them. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.
San Miguel Beermen host NLEX Road Warriors in the Governors Cup on Wednesday, October 21, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.