San Miguel Beermen vs Barangay Ginebra San Miguel prediction
San Miguel Beermen
24
38
20
17
Barangay Ginebra San Miguel
34
35
33
24
All predictions
3 picks graded · Average confidence 61%Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.
The score the model expects. An estimate, not a bet we publish.
San Miguel Beermen99113Barangay Ginebra San Miguel126108San Miguel Beermen99113Barangay Ginebra San Miguel126108Total 221 Margin SMB by 5 Win SMB 63% Actual 225 · BGS won
San Miguel Beermen vs Barangay Ginebra San Miguel
San Miguel Beermen
Barangay Ginebra San Miguel
Head-to-head
Head-to-head record: San Miguel Beermen 1, Barangay Ginebra San Miguel 4.
- Average total 211.6 points per meeting
- Over 209.5 2 of 5 against this game’s total
- Last meeting BGS by 9 Oct 27, 2026
Meetings
- Oct 27, 2026 Governors Cup Barangay Ginebra San Miguel 104–95 San Miguel Beermen 199 pts
- Oct 20, 2024 Governors Cup Barangay Ginebra San Miguel 102–99 San Miguel Beermen 201 pts
- Oct 18, 2024 Governors Cup San Miguel Beermen 92–121 Barangay Ginebra San Miguel 213 pts
- Oct 16, 2024 Governors Cup Barangay Ginebra San Miguel 121–131 San Miguel Beermen 252 pts
- Oct 13, 2024 Governors Cup San Miguel Beermen 94–99 Barangay Ginebra San Miguel 193 pts
Last five games
San Miguel Beermen
3-2 - Oct 27: Barangay Ginebra San Miguel 104, San Miguel Beermen 95. Lost. Odds: Barangay Ginebra San Miguel 2.30, San Miguel Beermen 1.44.
- Oct 21: San Miguel Beermen 135, NLEX Road Warriors 133. Won. Odds: San Miguel Beermen 1.55, NLEX Road Warriors 2.30.
- Oct 14: Terrafirma Dyip 105, San Miguel Beermen 135. Won. Odds: Terrafirma Dyip 4.35, San Miguel Beermen 1.08.
- Oct 10: TNT Tropang 5G 116, San Miguel Beermen 98. Lost. Odds: TNT Tropang 5G 2.00, San Miguel Beermen 1.52.
- Aug 12: Titan Ultra Giant Risers 113, San Miguel Beermen 143. Won. No odds on record.
Barangay Ginebra San Miguel
4-1 - Oct 27: Barangay Ginebra San Miguel 104, San Miguel Beermen 95. Won. Odds: Barangay Ginebra San Miguel 2.30, San Miguel Beermen 1.44.
- Oct 23: Barangay Ginebra San Miguel 101, Blackwater Bossing 96. Won. Odds: Barangay Ginebra San Miguel 1.28, Blackwater Bossing 3.35.
- Oct 18: Barangay Ginebra San Miguel 106, Phoenix Fuelmasters 89. Won. Odds: Barangay Ginebra San Miguel 1.04, Phoenix Fuelmasters 8.70.
- Oct 11: Magnolia Hotshots 112, Barangay Ginebra San Miguel 93. Lost. Odds: Magnolia Hotshots 2.17, Barangay Ginebra San Miguel 1.64.
- Oct 9: Barangay Ginebra San Miguel 129, Rain or Shine Elasto Painters 111. Won. Odds: Barangay Ginebra San Miguel 2.65, Rain or Shine Elasto Painters 1.42.
Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.
Key insights
- 3-game winning streak for Barangay Ginebra San Miguel coming into this game.
- Odds moved: the odds on San Miguel Beermen dropped from 1.80 to 1.28 since they were first published.
- 5-1 at home for San Miguel Beermen this season.
- 4-1 in the last 5 meetings for Barangay Ginebra San Miguel.
- 211.6 points per meeting across the last 5 head-to-head games; the over/under line is 209.5.
How the odds moved
| Market | Open | Now |
|---|---|---|
| SMB moneyline | 1.80 | moved down 1.28 |
| BGS moneyline | 1.79 | moved up 2.85 |
| Total points | 210.5 | moved down 209.5 |
| SMB spread | +2.5 | moved down −6.5 |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.
Governors Cup standings
Regular Season · Group A
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Pts | PF | PA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  NLEX Road Warriors |
12 | 9 | 3 | 21 | 1422 | 1226 | +196 |
| 2 | San Miguel Beermen |
12 | 9 | 3 | 21 | 1456 | 1303 | +153 |
| 3 |  Converge FiberXers |
12 | 8 | 4 | 20 | 1469 | 1336 | +133 |
| 4 |  TNT Tropang 5G |
12 | 7 | 5 | 19 | 1296 | 1190 | +106 |
| 5 |  Terrafirma Dyip |
12 | 5 | 7 | 17 | 1332 | 1341 | −9 |
| 6 |  Macau Black Bears |
12 | 2 | 10 | 14 | 1246 | 1561 | −315 |
| 7 |  Titan Ultra Giant Risers |
12 | 2 | 10 | 14 | 1284 | 1548 | −264 |
Regular Season · Group B
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Pts | PF | PA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Magnolia Hotshots |
10 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 1010 | 942 | +68 |
| 2 |  Rain or Shine Elasto Painters |
10 | 6 | 4 | 16 | 1092 | 1092 | 0 |
| 3 | Barangay Ginebra San Miguel |
10 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 966 | 944 | +22 |
| 4 |  Phoenix Fuelmasters |
10 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 975 | 1020 | −45 |
| 5 |  Meralco Bolts |
10 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 997 | 1020 | −23 |
| 6 |  Blackwater Bossing |
10 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 1053 | 1075 | −22 |
- Playoffs: Quarter-finals
Pts standings points: 2 for a win, 1 for a loss — the table is sorted by them. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.
San Miguel Beermen host Barangay Ginebra San Miguel in the Governors Cup on Friday, October 30, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.