San Lorenzo vs Penarol Prediction & Odds — Oct 16

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Liga A Friday, October 16, 2026Fri, Oct 16 Start20:05ET

San LorenzoHome · 1-3 · 16th · 1.73

8522221823

PenarolAway · 4-1 · 2nd · 1.97

9228172621

By quarter 1st 2nd 3rd 4th

San Lorenzo 22 22 18 23

Penarol 28 17 26 21

FT Polideportivo Roberto Pando · ArgentinaPolideportivo Roberto Pando

Best tip of the game

Point spread Won

SAN +7.5 1.25 85%

San Lorenzo +7.5 on the spread edge +6.0%

Best tip of the game Point spread · Won SAN +7.5 1.25 San Lorenzo +7.5 on the spread Confidence85% model 79.4% · market 73.4% edge +6.0%

All predictions

3 picks graded · Average confidence 77%

Picks for this game

Market PickOdds Model Market Edge Confidence Result

Moneyline 1 1.73 59.7% 53.7% +6.0% 68% Lost

Total points U166.5 1.42 68.0% 64.7% +3.3% 79% Lost

Point spread SAN +7.5 1.25 79.4% 73.4% +6.0% 85% Won

Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

San Lorenzo8581

Penarol9277

Total 158 actual 177

Winning margin SAN by 4 actual PEN by 7

Chance to win SAN 60% PEN won

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

San Lorenzo8581

Penarol9277

Total 158 Margin SAN by 4 Win SAN 60% Actual 177 · PEN won

Last five games

San Lorenzo 1-4

Oct 8: San Lorenzo 89, Gimnasia 73. Won. Odds: San Lorenzo 2.50, Gimnasia 1.47.
Apr 18: Obras Sanitarias 76, San Lorenzo 70. Lost. No odds on record.
Apr 14: Argentino 80, San Lorenzo 70. Lost. No odds on record.
Apr 12: Racing de Chivilcoy 80, San Lorenzo 66. Lost. No odds on record.
Apr 4: San Lorenzo 77, Boca Juniors 83. Lost. No odds on record.

Penarol 3-2

Oct 14: Lanus 77, Penarol 84. Won. Odds: Lanus 1.90, Penarol 1.84.
Sep 30: Penarol 62, Gimnasia 57. Won. Odds: Penarol 2.13, Gimnasia 1.66.
May 2: Penarol 68, Ferro 84. Lost. No odds on record.
Apr 30: Penarol 87, Ferro 75. Won. No odds on record.
Apr 26: Ferro 80, Penarol 78. Lost. No odds on record.

Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.

How the odds moved

Market	Open	Now
SAN moneyline	1.74	moved down 1.73
PEN moneyline	1.95	moved up 1.97
Total points	161.5	moved down 159.5
SAN spread	−1.5	moved down −2.5

Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.

Liga A standings

Regular Season

#	Team	GP	W	L	Pct	PF	PA	+/−
1	Quimsa	6	6	0	1.000	506	443	+63
2	Penarol	5	4	1	.800	406	373	+33
3	Atenas	5	4	1	.800	434	419	+15
4	Gimnasia	8	6	2	.750	610	583	+27
5	Olimpico	5	3	2	.600	443	419	+24
6	Argentino	5	3	2	.600	403	394	+9
7	Instituto de Cordoba	5	3	2	.600	373	371	+2
8	Boca Juniors	6	3	3	.500	529	510	+19
9	Platense	6	3	3	.500	482	482	0
10	Independiente de Oliva	2	1	1	.500	200	190	+10
11	Racing de Chivilcoy	7	3	4	.429	576	590	−14
12	Lanus	8	3	5	.375	606	632	−26
13	Ferro	6	2	4	.333	492	513	−21
14	La Union	3	1	2	.333	244	252	−8
15	Regatas	4	1	3	.250	299	313	−14
16	San Lorenzo	4	1	3	.250	305	323	−18
17	Obera TC	5	1	4	.200	367	406	−39
18	San Martin	6	0	6	.000	509	571	−62

Playoffs: Quarter-finals
Playoffs: 1/8-finals
Play Out

Pct percentage of games won — the table is sorted by it. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.

San Lorenzo host Penarol in the Liga A on Friday, October 16, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.