Portland Fire vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction & Odds

WNBA Thursday, September 17, 2026Thu, Sep 17 Start22:00ET

Portland FireHome · 17-27 · 5th · 2.25

9126241922

Phoenix MercuryAway · 16-28 · 7th · 1.61

9420232526

By quarter 1st 2nd 3rd 4th

Portland Fire 26 24 19 22

Phoenix Mercury 20 23 25 26

FT Moda Center · USAModa Center

Best tip of the game

Point spread Lost

POR +1.5 1.86 61%

Portland Fire +1.5 on the spread edge +5.3%

Best tip of the game Point spread · Lost POR +1.5 1.86 Portland Fire +1.5 on the spread Confidence61% model 55.3% · market 50.0% edge +5.3%

All predictions

3 picks graded · Average confidence 57%

Picks for this game

Market PickOdds Model Market Edge Confidence Result

Moneyline 1 2.25 51.8% 47.8% +4.0% 61% Lost

Total points U180.5 1.38 62.0% 61.4% +0.6% 50% Lost

Point spread POR +1.5 1.86 55.3% 50.0% +5.3% 61% Lost

Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

Portland Fire9187

Phoenix Mercury9487

Total 174 actual 185

Winning margin — actual PHO by 3

Chance to win POR 52% PHO won

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

Portland Fire9187

Phoenix Mercury9487

Total 174 Win POR 52% Actual 185 · PHO won

Predicted team stats

Prediction From 18+ games with full stats per team · no bookmaker odds

Portland Fire large = predicted · small = actual, above / below the prediction Phoenix Mercury

Large = predicted · small = actual, above / below the prediction

Rebounds

Other

Shooting

Portland Fire vs Phoenix Mercury

Portland Fire Phoenix Mercury

Last 30 games each with full stats · all competitions

Season record above, per-game averages below.

Last five games

Portland Fire 1-4

Aug 30: Portland Fire 69, Golden State Valkyries 86. Lost. No odds on record.
Aug 28: Atlanta Dream 83, Portland Fire 101. Won. No odds on record.
Aug 25: Dallas Wings 96, Portland Fire 78. Lost. No odds on record.
Aug 23: Portland Fire 100, Washington Mystics 105. Lost. No odds on record.
Aug 21: Toronto Tempo 82, Portland Fire 79. Lost. No odds on record.

Phoenix Mercury 1-4

Aug 29: Phoenix Mercury 101, Toronto Tempo 69. Won. No odds on record.
Aug 27: Phoenix Mercury 73, Washington Mystics 80. Lost. No odds on record.
Aug 25: Phoenix Mercury 84, Washington Mystics 94. Lost. No odds on record.
Aug 22: Phoenix Mercury 89, Atlanta Dream 99. Lost. No odds on record.
Aug 16: Phoenix Mercury 85, Portland Fire 88. Lost. No odds on record.

Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.

How the odds moved

Market	Open	Now
POR moneyline	1.93	moved up 2.25
PHO moneyline	1.83	moved down 1.61
Total points	175.5	moved down 171.5
POR spread	+1.5	moved up +3.5

Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.

WNBA standings

Regular Season · Western Conference

#	Team	GP	W	L	Pct	PF	PA	+/−
1	Minnesota Lynx	44	33	11	.750	3997	3681	+316
2	Golden State Valkyries	44	32	12	.727	3615	3306	+309
3	Las Vegas Aces	44	31	13	.705	4025	3776	+249
4	Dallas Wings	44	27	17	.614	3933	3751	+182
5	Portland Fire	44	17	27	.386	3794	4005	−211
6	Los Angeles Sparks	44	16	28	.364	3830	4018	−188
7	Phoenix Mercury	44	16	28	.364	3712	3854	−142
8	Seattle Storm	44	8	36	.182	3616	3913	−297

Pct percentage of games won — the table is sorted by it. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.

Portland Fire host Phoenix Mercury in the WNBA on Thursday, September 17, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.