Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces prediction
Phoenix Mercury
18
18
24
22
Las Vegas Aces
32
33
12
23
All predictions
3 picks graded · Average confidence 57%Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.
The score the model expects. An estimate, not a bet we publish.
Phoenix Mercury8292Las Vegas Aces10082Phoenix Mercury8292Las Vegas Aces10082Total 174 Margin PHO by 10 Win PHO 74% Actual 182 · LVA won
Phoenix Mercury
large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction Las Vegas Aces
Large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction
Rebounds
Other
Shooting
Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces
Phoenix Mercury
Las Vegas Aces
Last 30 and 29 games with full stats · all competitions
Phoenix Mercury at home, last 22 games · Las Vegas Aces away, last 26
Season record above, per-game averages below.
Head-to-head
Head-to-head record: Phoenix Mercury 1, Las Vegas Aces 4.
- Average total 170.4 points per meeting
- Over 174.5 2 of 5 against this game’s total
- Last meeting LVA by 48 Jul 11, 2026
Meetings
- Jul 11, 2026 WNBA Las Vegas Aces 106–58 Phoenix Mercury 164 pts
- Jun 17, 2026 WNBA Phoenix Mercury 76–86 Las Vegas Aces 162 pts
- May 9, 2026 WNBA Las Vegas Aces 66–99 Phoenix Mercury 165 pts
- Oct 10, 2025 WNBA Phoenix Mercury 86–97 Las Vegas Aces 183 pts
- Oct 8, 2025 WNBA Phoenix Mercury 88–90 Las Vegas Aces 178 pts
Last five games
Phoenix Mercury
3-2 - Sep 21: Phoenix Mercury 87, Dallas Wings 86. Won. Odds: Phoenix Mercury 2.76, Dallas Wings 1.43.
- Sep 19: Dallas Wings 87, Phoenix Mercury 82. Lost. Odds: Dallas Wings 1.18, Phoenix Mercury 4.70.
- Sep 17: Portland Fire 91, Phoenix Mercury 94. Won. Odds: Portland Fire 2.25, Phoenix Mercury 1.61.
- Aug 29: Phoenix Mercury 101, Toronto Tempo 69. Won. No odds on record.
- Aug 27: Phoenix Mercury 73, Washington Mystics 80. Lost. No odds on record.
Las Vegas Aces
5-0 - Sep 22: Las Vegas Aces 89, Los Angeles Sparks 79. Won. Odds: Las Vegas Aces 1.05, Los Angeles Sparks 10.00.
- Sep 20: Las Vegas Aces 98, Seattle Storm 77. Won. Odds: Las Vegas Aces 1.04, Seattle Storm 8.50.
- Sep 17: Seattle Storm 77, Las Vegas Aces 114. Won. Odds: Seattle Storm 4.51, Las Vegas Aces 1.19.
- Aug 28: Las Vegas Aces 93, Toronto Tempo 73. Won. No odds on record.
- Aug 23: Toronto Tempo 78, Las Vegas Aces 88. Won. No odds on record.
Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.
Key insights
- 6-game winning streak for Las Vegas Aces coming into this game.
- Net rating difference of 8.3 — Phoenix Mercury −1.8 per 100 possessions, Las Vegas Aces +6.5.
- 4-1 in the last 5 meetings for Las Vegas Aces.
- 170.4 points per meeting across the last 5 head-to-head games; the over/under line is 174.5.
- 7th vs 3rd in the WNBA standings.
How the odds moved
| Market | Open | Now |
|---|---|---|
| PHO moneyline | 3.90 | moved up 4.60 |
| LVA moneyline | 1.25 | moved down 1.19 |
| Total points | 174.5 | 174.5 |
| PHO spread | +9.5 | +9.5 |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.
WNBA standings
Regular Season · Western Conference
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Pct | PF | PA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Minnesota Lynx |
44 | 33 | 11 | .750 | 3997 | 3681 | +316 |
| 2 |  Golden State Valkyries |
44 | 32 | 12 | .727 | 3615 | 3306 | +309 |
| 3 | Las Vegas Aces |
44 | 31 | 13 | .705 | 4025 | 3776 | +249 |
| 4 |  Dallas Wings |
44 | 27 | 17 | .614 | 3933 | 3751 | +182 |
| 5 |  Portland Fire |
44 | 17 | 27 | .386 | 3794 | 4005 | −211 |
| 6 |  Los Angeles Sparks |
44 | 16 | 28 | .364 | 3830 | 4018 | −188 |
| 7 | Phoenix Mercury |
44 | 16 | 28 | .364 | 3712 | 3854 | −142 |
| 8 |  Seattle Storm |
44 | 8 | 36 | .182 | 3616 | 3913 | −297 |
Pct percentage of games won — the table is sorted by it. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.
Phoenix Mercury host Las Vegas Aces in the WNBA on Thursday, September 24, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.