Phoenix Mercury vs Dallas Wings Prediction & Odds — Sep 21

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WNBA Monday, September 21, 2026Mon, Sep 21 Start22:00ET

Phoenix MercuryHome · 16-28 · 7th · 2.76

8719241826

Dallas WingsAway · 27-17 · 4th · 1.43

8626212118

By quarter 1st 2nd 3rd 4th

Phoenix Mercury 19 24 18 26

Dallas Wings 26 21 21 18

FT Mortgage Matchup Center · USAMortgage Matchup Center

Best tip of the game

Total points Won

O167.5 1.47 73%

Over 167.5 points edge +5.1%

Best tip of the game Total points · Won O167.5 1.47 Over 167.5 points Confidence73% model 64.9% · market 59.8% edge +5.1%

All predictions

3 picks graded · Average confidence 66%

Picks for this game

Market PickOdds Model Market Edge Confidence Result

Moneyline 1 2.76 57.4% 30.8% +26.6% 55% Won

Total points O167.5 1.47 64.9% 59.8% +5.1% 73% Won

Point spread PHO +6.5 1.82 75.5% 51.2% +24.3% 69% Won

Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

Phoenix Mercury8792

Dallas Wings8684

Total 176 actual 173

Winning margin PHO by 8 actual PHO by 1

Chance to win PHO 72% PHO won

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

Phoenix Mercury8792

Dallas Wings8684

Total 176 Margin PHO by 8 Win PHO 72% Actual 173 · PHO won

Predicted team stats

Prediction From 17+ games with full stats per team · no bookmaker odds

Phoenix Mercury large = predicted · small = actual, above / below the prediction Dallas Wings

Large = predicted · small = actual, above / below the prediction

Rebounds

Other

Shooting

Phoenix Mercury vs Dallas Wings

Phoenix Mercury Dallas Wings

Last 30 and 29 games with full stats · all competitions

Season record above, per-game averages below.

Last five games

Phoenix Mercury 2-3

Sep 19: Dallas Wings 87, Phoenix Mercury 82. Lost. Odds: Dallas Wings 1.18, Phoenix Mercury 4.70.
Sep 17: Portland Fire 91, Phoenix Mercury 94. Won. Odds: Portland Fire 2.25, Phoenix Mercury 1.61.
Aug 29: Phoenix Mercury 101, Toronto Tempo 69. Won. No odds on record.
Aug 27: Phoenix Mercury 73, Washington Mystics 80. Lost. No odds on record.
Aug 25: Phoenix Mercury 84, Washington Mystics 94. Lost. No odds on record.

Dallas Wings 5-0

Sep 19: Dallas Wings 87, Phoenix Mercury 82. Won. Odds: Dallas Wings 1.18, Phoenix Mercury 4.70.
Sep 17: Dallas Wings 97, Los Angeles Sparks 77. Won. Odds: Dallas Wings 1.26, Los Angeles Sparks 3.68.
Aug 30: Dallas Wings 97, Connecticut Sun 71. Won. No odds on record.
Aug 25: Dallas Wings 96, Portland Fire 78. Won. No odds on record.
Aug 23: Dallas Wings 92, Seattle Storm 70. Won. No odds on record.

Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.

How the odds moved

Market	Open	Now
PHO moneyline	2.92	moved down 2.76
DAL moneyline	1.39	moved up 1.43
Total points	171.5	moved up 174.5
PHO spread	+6.5	moved down +5.5

Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.

WNBA standings

Regular Season · Western Conference

#	Team	GP	W	L	Pct	PF	PA	+/−
1	Minnesota Lynx	44	33	11	.750	3997	3681	+316
2	Golden State Valkyries	44	32	12	.727	3615	3306	+309
3	Las Vegas Aces	44	31	13	.705	4025	3776	+249
4	Dallas Wings	44	27	17	.614	3933	3751	+182
5	Portland Fire	44	17	27	.386	3794	4005	−211
6	Los Angeles Sparks	44	16	28	.364	3830	4018	−188
7	Phoenix Mercury	44	16	28	.364	3712	3854	−142
8	Seattle Storm	44	8	36	.182	3616	3913	−297

Pct percentage of games won — the table is sorted by it. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.

Phoenix Mercury host Dallas Wings in the WNBA on Monday, September 21, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.