Perth vs South East Melbourne prediction
Perth
26
22
22
22
South East Melbourne
24
22
21
21
All predictions
3 picks graded · Average confidence 69%Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.
The score the model expects. An estimate, not a bet we publish.
Perth9293South East Melbourne8897Perth9293South East Melbourne8897Total 190 Margin SEM by 4 Win SEM 59% Actual 180 · PER won
Perth
large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction South East Melbourne
Large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction
Rebounds
Other
Shooting
Perth vs South East Melbourne
Perth
South East Melbourne
Last 9 games each with full stats · all competitions
Perth at home, last 8 games · South East Melbourne away, last 4
Season record above, per-game averages below.
Head-to-head
Head-to-head record: Perth 2, South East Melbourne 3.
- Average total 187.0 points per meeting
- Over 189.5 3 of 5 against this game’s total
- Last meeting SEM by 21 Sep 19, 2026
Meetings
- Sep 19, 2026 NBL Perth 79–100 South East Melbourne 179 pts
- Mar 4, 2026 NBL South East Melbourne 111–94 Perth 205 pts
- Jan 28, 2026 NBL Perth 101–93 South East Melbourne 194 pts
- Jan 10, 2026 NBL South East Melbourne 97–107 Perth 204 pts
- Dec 18, 2025 NBL Perth 76–77 South East Melbourne 153 pts
Last five games
Perth
2-3 - Sep 26: Perth 97, New Zealand Breakers 93. Won. Odds: Perth 1.47, New Zealand Breakers 2.60.
- Sep 24: Perth 98, Adelaide 97. Won. Odds: Perth 2.03, Adelaide 1.76.
- Sep 19: Perth 79, South East Melbourne 100. Lost. Odds: Perth 1.67, South East Melbourne 2.15.
- Mar 14: Perth 75, Sydney 89. Lost. No odds on record.
- Mar 11: Sydney 105, Perth 104. Lost. No odds on record.
South East Melbourne
2-3 - Sep 24: South East Melbourne 61, Melbourne United 86. Lost. Odds: South East Melbourne 2.10, Melbourne United 1.70.
- Sep 21: Tasmania JackJumpers 96, South East Melbourne 91. Lost. Odds: Tasmania JackJumpers 2.55, South East Melbourne 1.47.
- Sep 19: Perth 79, South East Melbourne 100. Won. Odds: Perth 1.67, South East Melbourne 2.15.
- Mar 17: Adelaide 108, South East Melbourne 96. Lost. No odds on record.
- Mar 14: South East Melbourne 101, Adelaide 92. Won. No odds on record.
Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.
Key insights
- Odds moved: the odds on South East Melbourne dropped from 1.72 to 1.48 since they were first published.
- Rest advantage: 7 days off for South East Melbourne, 5 for Perth.
- Net rating difference of 9.6 — Perth −4.2 per 100 possessions, South East Melbourne +5.4.
- 3-2 in the last 5 meetings for South East Melbourne.
- 187.0 points per meeting across the last 5 head-to-head games; the over/under line is 189.5.
How the odds moved
| Market | Open | Now |
|---|---|---|
| PER moneyline | 2.08 | moved up 2.58 |
| SEM moneyline | 1.72 | moved down 1.48 |
| Total points | 188.5 | moved up 189.5 |
| PER spread · regulation | +1.5 | moved up +3.5 |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.
NBL standings
Regular Season
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Pct | PF | PA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sydney |
10 | 7 | 3 | .700 | 979 | 881 | +98 |
| 2 |  Tasmania JackJumpers |
10 | 7 | 3 | .700 | 956 | 908 | +48 |
| 3 | Perth |
9 | 5 | 4 | .556 | 839 | 870 | −31 |
| 4 |  Cairns Taipans |
11 | 6 | 5 | .545 | 1014 | 1062 | −48 |
| 5 |  Melbourne United |
10 | 5 | 5 | .500 | 967 | 925 | +42 |
| 6 |  Brisbane Bullets |
10 | 5 | 5 | .500 | 938 | 967 | −29 |
| 7 |  Adelaide |
11 | 5 | 6 | .455 | 1001 | 1031 | −30 |
| 8 | South East Melbourne |
10 | 4 | 6 | .400 | 969 | 943 | +26 |
| 9 |  New Zealand Breakers |
10 | 4 | 6 | .400 | 922 | 906 | +16 |
| 10 |  Illawarra Hawks |
11 | 3 | 8 | .273 | 1057 | 1149 | −92 |
- Playoffs: Semi-finals
- Playoffs: Quarter-finals
Pct percentage of games won — the table is sorted by it. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.
Perth host South East Melbourne in the NBL on Friday, October 2, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.