Perth vs South East Melbourne prediction
Perth
24
13
25
17
South East Melbourne
19
30
16
35
All predictions
3 picks graded · Average confidence 65%Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.
The score the model expects. An estimate, not a bet we publish.
Perth7996South East Melbourne10098Perth7996South East Melbourne10098Total 194 Margin SEM by 2 Win SEM 54% Actual 179 · SEM won
Perth
large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction South East Melbourne
Large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction
Rebounds
Other
Shooting
Perth vs South East Melbourne
Perth
South East Melbourne
Last 9 games each with full stats · all competitions
Perth at home, last 8 games · South East Melbourne away, last 4
Season record above, per-game averages below.
Head-to-head
Head-to-head record: Perth 3, South East Melbourne 2.
- Average total 187.2 points per meeting
- Over 190.5 3 of 5 against this game’s total
- Last meeting PER by 4 Oct 2, 2026
Meetings
- Oct 2, 2026 NBL Perth 92–88 South East Melbourne 180 pts
- Mar 4, 2026 NBL South East Melbourne 111–94 Perth 205 pts
- Jan 28, 2026 NBL Perth 101–93 South East Melbourne 194 pts
- Jan 10, 2026 NBL South East Melbourne 97–107 Perth 204 pts
- Dec 18, 2025 NBL Perth 76–77 South East Melbourne 153 pts
Last five games
Perth
2-3 - Mar 14: Perth 75, Sydney 89. Lost. No odds on record.
- Mar 11: Sydney 105, Perth 104. Lost. No odds on record.
- Mar 7: Perth 95, Melbourne United 77. Won. No odds on record.
- Mar 4: South East Melbourne 111, Perth 94. Lost. No odds on record.
- Feb 20: Perth 86, Adelaide 74. Won. No odds on record.
South East Melbourne
2-3 - Mar 17: Adelaide 108, South East Melbourne 96. Lost. No odds on record.
- Mar 14: South East Melbourne 101, Adelaide 92. Won. No odds on record.
- Mar 10: Adelaide 104, South East Melbourne 97. Lost. No odds on record.
- Mar 4: South East Melbourne 111, Perth 94. Won. No odds on record.
- Feb 19: Melbourne United 95, South East Melbourne 91. Lost. No odds on record.
Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.
Key insights
- Odds moved: the odds on Perth dropped from 1.87 to 1.67 since they were first published.
- Over/under moved up from 188.5 to 190.5 since it was first published.
- Net rating difference of 9.6 — Perth −4.2 per 100 possessions, South East Melbourne +5.4.
- 3-2 in the last 5 meetings for Perth.
- 187.2 points per meeting across the last 5 head-to-head games; the over/under line is 190.5.
How the odds moved
| Market | Open | Now |
|---|---|---|
| PER moneyline | 1.87 | moved down 1.67 |
| SEM moneyline | 1.89 | moved up 2.15 |
| Total points | 188.5 | moved up 190.5 |
| PER spread · regulation | −1.5 | moved down −2.5 |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.
NBL standings
Regular Season
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Pct | PF | PA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sydney |
10 | 7 | 3 | .700 | 979 | 881 | +98 |
| 2 |  Tasmania JackJumpers |
10 | 7 | 3 | .700 | 956 | 908 | +48 |
| 3 | Perth |
9 | 5 | 4 | .556 | 839 | 870 | −31 |
| 4 |  Cairns Taipans |
11 | 6 | 5 | .545 | 1014 | 1062 | −48 |
| 5 |  Melbourne United |
10 | 5 | 5 | .500 | 967 | 925 | +42 |
| 6 |  Brisbane Bullets |
10 | 5 | 5 | .500 | 938 | 967 | −29 |
| 7 |  Adelaide |
11 | 5 | 6 | .455 | 1001 | 1031 | −30 |
| 8 | South East Melbourne |
10 | 4 | 6 | .400 | 969 | 943 | +26 |
| 9 |  New Zealand Breakers |
10 | 4 | 6 | .400 | 922 | 906 | +16 |
| 10 |  Illawarra Hawks |
11 | 3 | 8 | .273 | 1057 | 1149 | −92 |
- Playoffs: Semi-finals
- Playoffs: Quarter-finals
Pct percentage of games won — the table is sorted by it. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.
Perth host South East Melbourne in the NBL on Saturday, September 19, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.