Perth vs New Zealand Breakers prediction
Perth
21
20
29
30
New Zealand Breakers
22
16
28
18
All predictions
3 picks graded · Average confidence 53%Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.
The score the model expects. An estimate, not a bet we publish.
Perth10089New Zealand Breakers8490Perth10089New Zealand Breakers8490Total 179 Margin NZB by 1 Win NZB 54% Actual 184 · PER won
Perth
large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction New Zealand Breakers
Large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction
Rebounds
Other
Shooting
Perth vs New Zealand Breakers
Perth
New Zealand Breakers
Last 9 and 11 games with full stats · all competitions
Perth at home, last 8 games · New Zealand Breakers away, last 8
Season record above, per-game averages below.
Head-to-head
Head-to-head record: Perth 4, New Zealand Breakers 0.
- Average total 177.5 points per meeting
- Over 181.5 2 of 4 against this game’s total
- Last meeting PER by 4 Sep 26, 2026
Meetings
- Sep 26, 2026 NBL Perth 97–93 New Zealand Breakers 190 pts
- Jan 3, 2026 NBL New Zealand Breakers 91–99 Perth 190 pts
- Nov 15, 2025 NBL Perth 88–75 New Zealand Breakers 163 pts
- Sep 27, 2025 NBL New Zealand Breakers 78–89 Perth 167 pts
Last five games
Perth
3-2 - Oct 2: Perth 92, South East Melbourne 88. Won. Odds: Perth 2.58, South East Melbourne 1.48.
- Sep 26: Perth 97, New Zealand Breakers 93. Won. Odds: Perth 1.47, New Zealand Breakers 2.60.
- Sep 24: Perth 98, Adelaide 97. Won. Odds: Perth 2.03, Adelaide 1.76.
- Sep 19: Perth 79, South East Melbourne 100. Lost. Odds: Perth 1.67, South East Melbourne 2.15.
- Mar 14: Perth 75, Sydney 89. Lost. No odds on record.
New Zealand Breakers
3-2 - Oct 4: Adelaide 69, New Zealand Breakers 88. Won. Odds: Adelaide 1.51, New Zealand Breakers 2.64.
- Sep 30: New Zealand Breakers 98, Cairns Taipans 75. Won. Odds: New Zealand Breakers 1.51, Cairns Taipans 2.48.
- Sep 26: Perth 97, New Zealand Breakers 93. Lost. Odds: Perth 1.47, New Zealand Breakers 2.60.
- Sep 22: Brisbane Bullets 88, New Zealand Breakers 85. Lost. Odds: Brisbane Bullets 1.97, New Zealand Breakers 1.81.
- Sep 20: New Zealand Breakers 95, Illawarra Hawks 81. Won. Odds: New Zealand Breakers 2.21, Illawarra Hawks 1.64.
Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.
Key insights
- 3-game winning streak for Perth coming into this game.
- Odds moved: the odds on Perth dropped from 1.55 to 1.34 since they were first published.
- Rest advantage: 7 days off for Perth, 5 for New Zealand Breakers.
- 4-0 in the last 4 meetings for Perth.
- 177.5 points per meeting across the last 4 head-to-head games; the over/under line is 181.5.
How the odds moved
| Market | Open | Now |
|---|---|---|
| PER moneyline | 1.55 | moved down 1.34 |
| NZB moneyline | 2.35 | moved up 3.12 |
| Total points | 182.5 | moved down 181.5 |
| PER spread | −3.5 | moved down −7.5 |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.
NBL standings
Regular Season
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Pct | PF | PA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sydney |
10 | 7 | 3 | .700 | 979 | 881 | +98 |
| 2 |  Tasmania JackJumpers |
10 | 7 | 3 | .700 | 956 | 908 | +48 |
| 3 | Perth |
9 | 5 | 4 | .556 | 839 | 870 | −31 |
| 4 |  Cairns Taipans |
11 | 6 | 5 | .545 | 1014 | 1062 | −48 |
| 5 |  Melbourne United |
10 | 5 | 5 | .500 | 967 | 925 | +42 |
| 6 |  Brisbane Bullets |
10 | 5 | 5 | .500 | 938 | 967 | −29 |
| 7 |  Adelaide |
11 | 5 | 6 | .455 | 1001 | 1031 | −30 |
| 8 |  South East Melbourne |
10 | 4 | 6 | .400 | 969 | 943 | +26 |
| 9 | New Zealand Breakers |
10 | 4 | 6 | .400 | 922 | 906 | +16 |
| 10 |  Illawarra Hawks |
11 | 3 | 8 | .273 | 1057 | 1149 | −92 |
- Playoffs: Semi-finals
- Playoffs: Quarter-finals
Pct percentage of games won — the table is sorted by it. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.
Perth host New Zealand Breakers in the NBL on Saturday, October 10, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.