Perth vs Melbourne United prediction
Perth
25
21
31
26
Melbourne United
26
22
31
23
All predictions
3 picks graded · Average confidence 75%Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.
The score the model expects. An estimate, not a bet we publish.
Perth10393Melbourne United10292Perth10393Melbourne United10292Total 185 Margin PER by 1 Win PER 54% Actual 205 · PER won
Perth
large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction Melbourne United
Large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction
Rebounds
Other
Shooting
Perth vs Melbourne United
Perth
Melbourne United
Last 9 and 10 games with full stats · all competitions
Perth at home, last 8 games · Melbourne United away, last 6
Season record above, per-game averages below.
Head-to-head
Head-to-head record: Perth 2, Melbourne United 2.
- Average total 171.0 points per meeting
- Over 185.5 0 of 4 against this game’s total
- Last meeting PER by 18 Mar 7, 2026
Meetings
- Mar 7, 2026 NBL Perth 95–77 Melbourne United 172 pts
- Jan 25, 2026 NBL Perth 73–74 Melbourne United 147 pts
- Dec 4, 2025 NBL Perth 96–84 Melbourne United 180 pts
- Nov 23, 2025 NBL Melbourne United 98–87 Perth 185 pts
Last five games
Perth
4-1 - Oct 17: Sydney 102, Perth 81. Lost. Odds: Sydney 1.20, Perth 3.05.
- Oct 10: Perth 100, New Zealand Breakers 84. Won. Odds: Perth 1.34, New Zealand Breakers 3.12.
- Oct 2: Perth 92, South East Melbourne 88. Won. Odds: Perth 2.58, South East Melbourne 1.48.
- Sep 26: Perth 97, New Zealand Breakers 93. Won. Odds: Perth 1.47, New Zealand Breakers 2.60.
- Sep 24: Perth 98, Adelaide 97. Won. Odds: Perth 2.03, Adelaide 1.76.
Melbourne United
2-3 - Oct 18: Melbourne United 89, Illawarra Hawks 91. Lost. Odds: Melbourne United 1.15, Illawarra Hawks 4.90.
- Oct 10: South East Melbourne 99, Melbourne United 104. Won. Odds: South East Melbourne 2.18, Melbourne United 1.72.
- Oct 7: Adelaide 91, Melbourne United 96. Won. Odds: Adelaide 2.40, Melbourne United 1.54.
- Oct 3: Melbourne United 95, Cairns Taipans 107. Lost. Odds: Melbourne United 1.17, Cairns Taipans 4.77.
- Oct 1: Tasmania JackJumpers 84, Melbourne United 82. Lost. Odds: Tasmania JackJumpers 3.00, Melbourne United 1.36.
Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.
Key insights
- Net rating difference of 9.5 — Perth −4.2 per 100 possessions, Melbourne United +5.3.
- 4-1 in the last five for Perth.
- Even head-to-head, 2-2 over the last 4 meetings.
- 171.0 points per meeting across the last 4 head-to-head games; the over/under line is 185.5.
- 3rd vs 5th in the NBL standings.
How the odds moved
| Market | Open | Now |
|---|---|---|
| PER moneyline | 1.92 | moved down 1.85 |
| MEL moneyline | 1.75 | moved up 1.83 |
| Total points | 185.5 | 185.5 |
| PER spread | +1.5 | +1.5 |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.
NBL standings
Regular Season
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Pct | PF | PA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sydney |
10 | 7 | 3 | .700 | 979 | 881 | +98 |
| 2 |  Tasmania JackJumpers |
10 | 7 | 3 | .700 | 956 | 908 | +48 |
| 3 | Perth |
9 | 5 | 4 | .556 | 839 | 870 | −31 |
| 4 |  Cairns Taipans |
11 | 6 | 5 | .545 | 1014 | 1062 | −48 |
| 5 | Melbourne United |
10 | 5 | 5 | .500 | 967 | 925 | +42 |
| 6 |  Brisbane Bullets |
10 | 5 | 5 | .500 | 938 | 967 | −29 |
| 7 |  Adelaide |
11 | 5 | 6 | .455 | 1001 | 1031 | −30 |
| 8 |  South East Melbourne |
10 | 4 | 6 | .400 | 969 | 943 | +26 |
| 9 |  New Zealand Breakers |
10 | 4 | 6 | .400 | 922 | 906 | +16 |
| 10 |  Illawarra Hawks |
11 | 3 | 8 | .273 | 1057 | 1149 | −92 |
- Playoffs: Semi-finals
- Playoffs: Quarter-finals
Pct percentage of games won — the table is sorted by it. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.
Perth host Melbourne United in the NBL on Friday, October 23, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.