Perth vs Adelaide prediction
Perth
30
18
22
28
Adelaide
20
28
29
20
All predictions
3 picks graded · Average confidence 74%Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.
The score the model expects. An estimate, not a bet we publish.
Perth9888Adelaide9794Perth9888Adelaide9794Total 182 Margin ADE by 6 Win ADE 66% Actual 195 · PER won
Perth
large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction Adelaide
Large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction
Rebounds
Other
Shooting
Perth vs Adelaide
Perth
Adelaide
Last 9 and 10 games with full stats · all competitions
Perth at home, last 8 games · Adelaide away, last 7
Season record above, per-game averages below.
Head-to-head
Head-to-head record: Perth 2, Adelaide 2.
- Average total 177.3 points per meeting
- Over 184.5 1 of 4 against this game’s total
- Last meeting PER by 12 Feb 20, 2026
Meetings
- Feb 20, 2026 NBL Perth 86–74 Adelaide 160 pts
- Dec 27, 2025 NBL Adelaide 95–84 Perth 179 pts
- Dec 7, 2025 NBL Perth 94–95 Adelaide 189 pts
- Nov 8, 2025 NBL Adelaide 87–94 Perth 181 pts
Last five games
Perth
1-4 - Sep 19: Perth 79, South East Melbourne 100. Lost. Odds: Perth 1.67, South East Melbourne 2.15.
- Mar 14: Perth 75, Sydney 89. Lost. No odds on record.
- Mar 11: Sydney 105, Perth 104. Lost. No odds on record.
- Mar 7: Perth 95, Melbourne United 77. Won. No odds on record.
- Mar 4: South East Melbourne 111, Perth 94. Lost. No odds on record.
Adelaide
3-2 - Sep 19: Melbourne United 95, Adelaide 97. Won. Odds: Melbourne United 1.43, Adelaide 2.76.
- Apr 5: Sydney 113, Adelaide 101. After overtime. Lost. No odds on record.
- Apr 1: Adelaide 92, Sydney 91. Won. No odds on record.
- Mar 28: Sydney 106, Adelaide 93. Lost. No odds on record.
- Mar 27: Adelaide 91, Sydney 89. Won. No odds on record.
Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.
Key insights
- 3-game losing streak for Perth coming into this game.
- Over/under moved up from 182.5 to 184.5 since it was first published.
- Even head-to-head, 2-2 over the last 4 meetings.
- 177.3 points per meeting across the last 4 head-to-head games; the over/under line is 184.5.
- 3rd vs 7th in the NBL standings.
How the odds moved
| Market | Open | Now |
|---|---|---|
| PER moneyline | 2.25 | moved down 2.03 |
| ADE moneyline | 1.62 | moved up 1.76 |
| Total points | 182.5 | moved up 184.5 |
| PER spread · regulation | +2.5 | moved down +1.5 |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.
NBL standings
Regular Season
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Pct | PF | PA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sydney |
10 | 7 | 3 | .700 | 979 | 881 | +98 |
| 2 |  Tasmania JackJumpers |
10 | 7 | 3 | .700 | 956 | 908 | +48 |
| 3 | Perth |
9 | 5 | 4 | .556 | 839 | 870 | −31 |
| 4 |  Cairns Taipans |
11 | 6 | 5 | .545 | 1014 | 1062 | −48 |
| 5 |  Melbourne United |
10 | 5 | 5 | .500 | 967 | 925 | +42 |
| 6 |  Brisbane Bullets |
10 | 5 | 5 | .500 | 938 | 967 | −29 |
| 7 | Adelaide |
11 | 5 | 6 | .455 | 1001 | 1031 | −30 |
| 8 |  South East Melbourne |
10 | 4 | 6 | .400 | 969 | 943 | +26 |
| 9 |  New Zealand Breakers |
10 | 4 | 6 | .400 | 922 | 906 | +16 |
| 10 |  Illawarra Hawks |
11 | 3 | 8 | .273 | 1057 | 1149 | −92 |
- Playoffs: Semi-finals
- Playoffs: Quarter-finals
Pct percentage of games won — the table is sorted by it. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.
Perth host Adelaide in the NBL on Thursday, September 24, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.