Penarol vs Gimnasia Prediction & Odds — Sep 30

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Liga A Wednesday, September 30, 2026Wed, Sep 30 Start19:30ET

PenarolHome · 4-1 · 2nd · 2.13

6217131418

GimnasiaAway · 6-2 · 4th · 1.66

571415622

By quarter 1st 2nd 3rd 4th

Penarol 17 13 14 18

Gimnasia 14 15 6 22

FT Polideportivo Islas Malvinas · ArgentinaPolideportivo Islas Malvinas

Best tip of the game

Moneyline Won

1 2.13 51%

Penarol to win edge −0.3%

Best tip of the game Moneyline · Won 1 2.13 Penarol to win Confidence51% model 44.6% · market 44.9% edge −0.3%

All predictions

3 picks graded · Average confidence 57%

Picks for this game

Market PickOdds Model Market Edge Confidence Result

Moneyline 1 2.13 44.6% 44.9% −0.3% 51% Won

Total points O157.5 1.83 50.8% 50.0% +0.8% 52% Lost

Point spread PEN +2.5 1.83 61.3% 50.0% +11.3% 69% Won

Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

Penarol6280

Gimnasia5778

Total 158 actual 119

Winning margin PEN by 2 actual PEN by 5

Chance to win PEN 55% PEN won

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

Penarol6280

Gimnasia5778

Total 158 Margin PEN by 2 Win PEN 55% Actual 119 · PEN won

Last five games

Penarol 2-3

May 2: Penarol 68, Ferro 84. Lost. No odds on record.
Apr 30: Penarol 87, Ferro 75. Won. No odds on record.
Apr 26: Ferro 80, Penarol 78. Lost. No odds on record.
Apr 24: Ferro 97, Penarol 91. Lost. No odds on record.
Apr 19: Penarol 87, Ferro 80. Won. No odds on record.

Gimnasia 3-2

Sep 28: Lanus 74, Gimnasia 92. Won. Odds: Lanus 2.25, Gimnasia 1.55.
Jun 20: Gimnasia 68, Quimsa 56. Won. No odds on record.
Jun 17: Quimsa 88, Gimnasia 60. Lost. No odds on record.
Jun 13: Gimnasia 74, Quimsa 77. After overtime. Lost. No odds on record.
Jun 11: Gimnasia 76, Quimsa 59. Won. No odds on record.

Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.

How the odds moved

Market	Open	Now
PEN moneyline	2.10	moved up 2.13
GIM moneyline	1.65	moved up 1.66
Total points	157.5	moved down 155.5
PEN spread	+2.5	+2.5

Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.

Liga A standings

Regular Season

#	Team	GP	W	L	Pct	PF	PA	+/−
1	Quimsa	6	6	0	1.000	506	443	+63
2	Penarol	5	4	1	.800	406	373	+33
3	Atenas	5	4	1	.800	434	419	+15
4	Gimnasia	8	6	2	.750	610	583	+27
5	Olimpico	5	3	2	.600	443	419	+24
6	Argentino	5	3	2	.600	403	394	+9
7	Instituto de Cordoba	5	3	2	.600	373	371	+2
8	Boca Juniors	6	3	3	.500	529	510	+19
9	Platense	6	3	3	.500	482	482	0
10	Independiente de Oliva	2	1	1	.500	200	190	+10
11	Racing de Chivilcoy	7	3	4	.429	576	590	−14
12	Lanus	8	3	5	.375	606	632	−26
13	Ferro	6	2	4	.333	492	513	−21
14	La Union	3	1	2	.333	244	252	−8
15	Regatas	4	1	3	.250	299	313	−14
16	San Lorenzo	4	1	3	.250	305	323	−18
17	Obera TC	5	1	4	.200	367	406	−39
18	San Martin	6	0	6	.000	509	571	−62

Playoffs: Quarter-finals
Playoffs: 1/8-finals
Play Out

Pct percentage of games won — the table is sorted by it. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.

Penarol host Gimnasia in the Liga A on Wednesday, September 30, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.