Pato vs Paulistano prediction
Pato
10
18
13
33
Paulistano
13
20
30
17
All predictions
3 picks graded · Average confidence 81%Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.
The score the model expects. An estimate, not a bet we publish.
Pato7475Paulistano8083Pato7475Paulistano8083Total 158 Margin PAU by 8 Win PAU 71% Actual 154 · PAU won
Pato
large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction Paulistano
Large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction
Other
Shooting
Pato vs Paulistano
Pato
Paulistano
Last 30 and 28 games with full stats · all competitions
Pato at home, last 21 games · Paulistano away, last 23
Season record above, per-game averages below.
Head-to-head
Head-to-head record: Pato 1, Paulistano 1.
- Average total 144.5 points per meeting
- Over 156.5 1 of 2 against this game’s total
- Last meeting PAU by 21 Apr 18, 2026
Meetings
- Apr 18, 2026 NBB Paulistano 92–71 Pato 163 pts
- Dec 6, 2025 NBB Pato 67–59 Paulistano 126 pts
Last five games
Pato
0-5 - Apr 18: Paulistano 92, Pato 71. Lost. No odds on record.
- Apr 16: Pinheiros 88, Pato 55. Lost. No odds on record.
- Apr 11: Osasco 77, Pato 68. Lost. No odds on record.
- Apr 9: Franca 100, Pato 64. Lost. No odds on record.
- Apr 6: Pato 70, Rio Claro 78. Lost. No odds on record.
Paulistano
1-4 - May 9: Paulistano 74, Pinheiros 84. Lost. No odds on record.
- May 7: Paulistano 68, Pinheiros 76. Lost. No odds on record.
- May 4: Pinheiros 101, Paulistano 92. After overtime. Lost. No odds on record.
- Apr 29: Paulistano 71, Bauru 62. Won. No odds on record.
- Apr 26: Bauru 88, Paulistano 75. Lost. No odds on record.
Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.
Key insights
- 10+ straight losses for Pato coming into this game.
- 3-game losing streak for Paulistano coming into this game.
- Odds moved: the odds on Pato dropped from 4.00 to 3.20 since they were first published.
- Net rating difference of 16.6 — Pato −13.0 per 100 possessions, Paulistano +3.6.
- 14th vs 7th in the NBB standings.
How the odds moved
| Market | Open | Now |
|---|---|---|
| PAT moneyline | 4.00 | moved down 3.20 |
| PAU moneyline | 1.20 | moved down 1.18 |
| Total points | 157.5 | moved down 156.5 |
| PAT spread | +8.5 | moved up +9.5 |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.
NBB standings
Regular Season
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Pct | PF | PA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Minas |
4 | 4 | 0 | 1.000 | 352 | 263 | +89 |
| 2 |  Brasilia |
4 | 3 | 1 | .750 | 345 | 345 | 0 |
| 3 |  Unifacisa |
4 | 3 | 1 | .750 | 344 | 296 | +48 |
| 4 |  Mogi |
4 | 3 | 1 | .750 | 315 | 294 | +21 |
| 5 |  Flamengo |
4 | 3 | 1 | .750 | 322 | 277 | +45 |
| 6 |  Pinheiros |
4 | 3 | 1 | .750 | 327 | 281 | +46 |
| 7 | Paulistano |
4 | 3 | 1 | .750 | 301 | 302 | −1 |
| 8 |  Franca |
4 | 2 | 2 | .500 | 290 | 276 | +14 |
| 9 |  Cruzeiro |
4 | 2 | 2 | .500 | 302 | 301 | +1 |
| 10 |  Bauru |
4 | 2 | 2 | .500 | 301 | 311 | −10 |
| 11 |  Uniao Corinthians |
5 | 2 | 3 | .400 | 369 | 400 | −31 |
| 12 |  Corinthians Paulista |
3 | 1 | 2 | .333 | 243 | 236 | +7 |
| 13 |  Osasco |
3 | 1 | 2 | .333 | 237 | 254 | −17 |
| 14 | Pato |
4 | 1 | 3 | .250 | 296 | 330 | −34 |
| 15 |  Botafogo |
4 | 1 | 3 | .250 | 323 | 339 | −16 |
| 16 |  Caxias do Sul |
4 | 0 | 4 | .000 | 268 | 311 | −43 |
| 17 |  Cearense |
2 | 0 | 2 | .000 | 132 | 191 | −59 |
| 18 |  Sao Jose |
3 | 0 | 3 | .000 | 210 | 270 | −60 |
- Playoffs: 1/8-finals
Pct percentage of games won — the table is sorted by it. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.
Pato host Paulistano in the NBB on Wednesday, October 21, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.