Ovarense vs Braga Prediction & Odds

LPB Saturday, October 3, 2026Sat, Oct 3 Start11:00ET Round 1

OvarenseHome · 4-1 · 1st · 1.36

9626262321

BragaAway · 4-1 · 4th · 2.92

831992035

By quarter 1st 2nd 3rd 4th

Ovarense 26 26 23 21

Braga 19 9 20 35

FT Arena de Ovar · PortugalArena de Ovar · Round 1

Best tip of the game

Point spread Won

OVA +2.5 1.33 86%

Ovarense +2.5 on the spread edge −0.8%

Best tip of the game Point spread · Won OVA +2.5 1.33 Ovarense +2.5 on the spread Confidence86% model 68.1% · market 68.9% edge −0.8%

All predictions

3 picks graded · Average confidence 84%

Picks for this game

Market PickOdds Model Market Edge Confidence Result

Moneyline 1 1.36 63.0% 65.0% −2.0% 76% Won

Total points U172.5 1.46 77.8% 65.4% +12.4% 89% Lost

Point spread OVA +2.5 1.33 68.1% 68.9% −0.8% 86% Won

Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

Ovarense9683

Braga8376

Total 159 actual 179

Winning margin OVA by 7 actual OVA by 13

Chance to win OVA 63% OVA won

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

Ovarense9683

Braga8376

Total 159 Margin OVA by 7 Win OVA 63% Actual 179 · OVA won

Predicted team stats

Prediction From 19+ games with full stats per team · no bookmaker odds

Ovarense large = predicted · small = actual, above / below the prediction Braga

Large = predicted · small = actual, above / below the prediction

Rebounds

Other

Shooting

Ovarense vs Braga

Ovarense Braga

Last 27 and 28 games with full stats · all competitions

Season record above, per-game averages below.

Last five games

Ovarense 2-3

May 16: Ovarense 65, Oliveirense 69. Lost. No odds on record.
May 13: Oliveirense 90, Ovarense 72. Lost. No odds on record.
May 9: Ovarense 93, Oliveirense 79. Won. No odds on record.
Apr 25: Ovarense 67, Braga 74. Lost. No odds on record.
Apr 18: Galitos Barreiro 82, Ovarense 83. Won. No odds on record.

Braga 1-4

May 13: Braga 79, Benfica 94. Lost. No odds on record.
May 9: Benfica 90, Braga 72. Lost. No odds on record.
Apr 25: Ovarense 67, Braga 74. Won. No odds on record.
Apr 18: Braga 68, FC Porto 82. Lost. No odds on record.
Apr 11: Benfica 108, Braga 77. Lost. No odds on record.

Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.

How the odds moved

Market	Open	Now
OVA moneyline	1.40	moved down 1.36
BRA moneyline	2.60	moved up 2.92
Total points	165.5	moved up 166.5
OVA spread	−5.5	moved down −6.5

Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.

LPB standings

Regular Season

#	Team	GP	W	L	Pts	PF	PA	+/−
1	Ovarense	5	4	1	9	409	370	+39
2	FC Porto	5	4	1	9	467	430	+37
3	Benfica	5	4	1	9	437	375	+62
4	Braga	5	4	1	9	457	396	+61
5	Oliveirense	4	3	1	7	375	363	+12
6	Sporting CP	5	2	3	7	400	405	−5
7	Vitoria	4	2	2	6	300	328	−28
8	CD Povoa	4	2	2	6	297	291	+6
9	CAB Madeira	5	1	4	6	431	446	−15
10	CA Queluz	4	2	2	6	356	375	−19
11	Portimonense	5	0	5	5	380	443	−63
12	Esgueira	5	0	5	5	388	475	−87

Quarter-finals
Relegation - Proliga

Pts standings points: 2 for a win, 1 for a loss — the table is sorted by them. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.

Ovarense host Braga in the LPB on Saturday, October 3, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.