Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets prediction
Oklahoma City Thunder
24
20
26
26
Denver Nuggets
27
21
16
20
All predictions
3 picks graded · Average confidence 75%Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.
The score the model expects. An estimate, not a bet we publish.
Oklahoma City Thunder96122Denver Nuggets84112Oklahoma City Thunder96122Denver Nuggets84112Total 234 Margin OKC by 10 Win OKC 72% Actual 180 · OKC won
Oklahoma City Thunder
large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction Denver Nuggets
Large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction
Rebounds
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Shooting
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets
Oklahoma City Thunder
Denver Nuggets
Last 6 and 5 games with full stats · all competitions
Season record above, per-game averages below.
Head-to-head
Head-to-head record: Oklahoma City Thunder 4, Denver Nuggets 1.
- Average total 230.8 points per meeting
- Over 236.5 2 of 5 against this game’s total
- Last meeting DEN by 20 Apr 10, 2026
Meetings
- Apr 10, 2026 NBA Denver Nuggets 127–107 Oklahoma City Thunder 234 pts
- Mar 9, 2026 NBA Oklahoma City Thunder 129–126 Denver Nuggets 255 pts
- Feb 27, 2026 NBA Oklahoma City Thunder 127–121 OT Denver Nuggets 248 pts · OT
- Feb 1, 2026 NBA Denver Nuggets 111–121 Oklahoma City Thunder 232 pts
- Oct 17, 2025 NBA Oklahoma City Thunder 94–91 Denver Nuggets 185 pts
Last five games
Oklahoma City Thunder
2-3 - Oct 20: San Antonio Spurs 104, Oklahoma City Thunder 116. Won. Odds: San Antonio Spurs 1.97, Oklahoma City Thunder 1.85.
- Oct 15: Houston Rockets 116, Oklahoma City Thunder 89. Lost. Odds: Houston Rockets 2.11, Oklahoma City Thunder 1.68.
- Oct 13: Oklahoma City Thunder 114, Indiana Pacers 112. After overtime. Won. Odds: Oklahoma City Thunder 1.40, Indiana Pacers 2.80.
- Oct 12: Atlanta Hawks 113, Oklahoma City Thunder 110. Lost. Odds: Atlanta Hawks 1.45, Oklahoma City Thunder 2.61.
- Oct 7: Oklahoma City Thunder 126, Milwaukee Bucks 128. Lost. Odds: Oklahoma City Thunder 1.18, Milwaukee Bucks 4.46.
Denver Nuggets
4-1 - Oct 16: Los Angeles Lakers 106, Denver Nuggets 121. Won. Odds: Los Angeles Lakers 1.61, Denver Nuggets 2.17.
- Oct 14: Los Angeles Clippers 110, Denver Nuggets 122. Won. Odds: Los Angeles Clippers 2.62, Denver Nuggets 1.45.
- Oct 11: Denver Nuggets 133, Chicago Bulls 128. Won. Odds: Denver Nuggets 1.35, Chicago Bulls 2.95.
- Oct 6: Utah Jazz 106, Denver Nuggets 117. Won. Odds: Utah Jazz 1.85, Denver Nuggets 1.95.
- Oct 4: Denver Nuggets 97, Utah Jazz 109. Lost. Odds: Denver Nuggets 1.55, Utah Jazz 2.50.
Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.
Key insights
- 4-game winning streak for Denver Nuggets coming into this game.
- Rest advantage: 5 days off for Denver Nuggets, 1 for Oklahoma City Thunder.
- Over/under moved up from 233.5 to 236.5 since it was first published.
- 4-1 in the last 5 meetings for Oklahoma City Thunder.
- +10.4 points at home — Oklahoma City Thunder averaged 113.2 at home and 102.8 away this season.
How the odds moved
| Market | Open | Now |
|---|---|---|
| OKC moneyline | 1.36 | moved down 1.30 |
| DEN moneyline | 3.25 | moved up 3.65 |
| Total points | 233.5 | moved up 236.5 |
| OKC spread | −7.5 | moved down −8.5 |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.
NBA standings
Pre-season · Western Conference
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Pct | PF | PA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Memphis Grizzlies |
4 | 3 | 1 | .750 | 470 | 443 | +27 |
| 2 |  Utah Jazz |
4 | 3 | 1 | .750 | 453 | 439 | +14 |
| 3 |  New Orleans Pelicans |
4 | 3 | 1 | .750 | 442 | 441 | +1 |
| 4 |  Golden State Warriors |
6 | 4 | 2 | .667 | 683 | 638 | +45 |
| 5 |  Houston Rockets |
3 | 2 | 1 | .667 | 366 | 338 | +28 |
| 6 |  Portland Trail Blazers |
3 | 2 | 1 | .667 | 351 | 344 | +7 |
| 7 |  Los Angeles Clippers |
3 | 2 | 1 | .667 | 332 | 325 | +7 |
| 8 | Denver Nuggets |
5 | 3 | 2 | .600 | 578 | 571 | +7 |
| 9 |  Minnesota Timberwolves |
6 | 3 | 3 | .500 | 697 | 709 | −12 |
| 10 |  San Antonio Spurs |
5 | 2 | 3 | .400 | 572 | 544 | +28 |
| 11 |  Los Angeles Lakers |
5 | 2 | 3 | .400 | 534 | 559 | −25 |
| 12 |  Dallas Mavericks |
4 | 1 | 3 | .250 | 457 | 486 | −29 |
| 13 |  Phoenix Suns |
5 | 1 | 4 | .200 | 545 | 573 | −28 |
| 14 | Oklahoma City Thunder |
5 | 1 | 4 | .200 | 549 | 585 | −36 |
| 15 |  Sacramento Kings |
5 | 0 | 5 | .000 | 514 | 588 | −74 |
Pct percentage of games won — the table is sorted by it. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.
Oklahoma City Thunder host Denver Nuggets in the NBA on Thursday, October 22, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.