New Zealand Breakers vs Illawarra Hawks prediction
New Zealand Breakers
28
26
22
19
Illawarra Hawks
24
23
14
20
All predictions
3 picks graded · Average confidence 64%Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.
The score the model expects. An estimate, not a bet we publish.
New Zealand Breakers9599Illawarra Hawks8197New Zealand Breakers9599Illawarra Hawks8197Total 196 Margin NZB by 2 Win NZB 56% Actual 176 · NZB won
New Zealand Breakers
large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction Illawarra Hawks
Large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction
Rebounds
Other
Shooting
New Zealand Breakers vs Illawarra Hawks
New Zealand Breakers
Illawarra Hawks
Last 11 games each with full stats · all competitions
Season record above, per-game averages below.
Head-to-head
Head-to-head record: New Zealand Breakers 4, Illawarra Hawks 0.
- Average total 191.3 points per meeting
- Over 185.5 3 of 4 against this game’s total
- Last meeting NZB by 11 Feb 7, 2026
Meetings
- Feb 7, 2026 NBL New Zealand Breakers 106–95 Illawarra Hawks 201 pts
- Jan 10, 2026 NBL Illawarra Hawks 96–101 New Zealand Breakers 197 pts
- Oct 31, 2025 NBL Illawarra Hawks 60–102 New Zealand Breakers 162 pts
- Oct 8, 2025 NBL New Zealand Breakers 117–88 Illawarra Hawks 205 pts
Last five games
New Zealand Breakers
3-2 - Feb 22: Adelaide 107, New Zealand Breakers 111. Won. No odds on record.
- Feb 19: New Zealand Breakers 115, Cairns Taipans 84. Won. No odds on record.
- Feb 14: Adelaide 92, New Zealand Breakers 89. Lost. No odds on record.
- Feb 7: New Zealand Breakers 106, Illawarra Hawks 95. Won. No odds on record.
- Feb 5: New Zealand Breakers 83, South East Melbourne 114. Lost. No odds on record.
Illawarra Hawks
3-2 - Feb 18: Tasmania JackJumpers 70, Illawarra Hawks 103. Won. No odds on record.
- Feb 14: Melbourne United 91, Illawarra Hawks 100. Won. No odds on record.
- Feb 13: Illawarra Hawks 94, Sydney 120. Lost. No odds on record.
- Feb 7: New Zealand Breakers 106, Illawarra Hawks 95. Lost. No odds on record.
- Feb 5: Illawarra Hawks 100, Adelaide 99. Won. No odds on record.
Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.
Key insights
- Odds moved: the odds on Illawarra Hawks dropped from 1.94 to 1.64 since they were first published.
- 1-4 away for Illawarra Hawks this season.
- 4-0 in the last 4 meetings for New Zealand Breakers.
- Over/under moved up from 182.5 to 185.5 since it was first published.
- Net rating difference of 8.7 — New Zealand Breakers −1.3 per 100 possessions, Illawarra Hawks −10.0.
How the odds moved
| Market | Open | Now |
|---|---|---|
| NZB moneyline | 1.80 | moved up 2.21 |
| ILL moneyline | 1.94 | moved down 1.64 |
| Total points | 182.5 | moved up 185.5 |
| NZB spread · regulation | +1.5 | moved up +2.5 |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.
NBL standings
Regular Season
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Pct | PF | PA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sydney |
10 | 7 | 3 | .700 | 979 | 881 | +98 |
| 2 |  Tasmania JackJumpers |
10 | 7 | 3 | .700 | 956 | 908 | +48 |
| 3 |  Perth |
9 | 5 | 4 | .556 | 839 | 870 | −31 |
| 4 |  Cairns Taipans |
11 | 6 | 5 | .545 | 1014 | 1062 | −48 |
| 5 |  Melbourne United |
10 | 5 | 5 | .500 | 967 | 925 | +42 |
| 6 |  Brisbane Bullets |
10 | 5 | 5 | .500 | 938 | 967 | −29 |
| 7 |  Adelaide |
11 | 5 | 6 | .455 | 1001 | 1031 | −30 |
| 8 |  South East Melbourne |
10 | 4 | 6 | .400 | 969 | 943 | +26 |
| 9 | New Zealand Breakers |
10 | 4 | 6 | .400 | 922 | 906 | +16 |
| 10 | Illawarra Hawks |
11 | 3 | 8 | .273 | 1057 | 1149 | −92 |
- Playoffs: Semi-finals
- Playoffs: Quarter-finals
Pct percentage of games won — the table is sorted by it. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.
New Zealand Breakers host Illawarra Hawks in the NBL on Sunday, September 20, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.