New Zealand Breakers vs Cairns Taipans prediction
New Zealand Breakers
19
23
30
26
Cairns Taipans
18
17
25
15
All predictions
3 picks graded · Average confidence 79%Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.
The score the model expects. An estimate, not a bet we publish.
New Zealand Breakers9897Cairns Taipans7585New Zealand Breakers9897Cairns Taipans7585Total 182 Margin NZB by 12 Win NZB 78% Actual 173 · NZB won
New Zealand Breakers
large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction Cairns Taipans
Large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction
Rebounds
Other
Shooting
New Zealand Breakers vs Cairns Taipans
New Zealand Breakers
Cairns Taipans
Last 11 games each with full stats · all competitions
Season record above, per-game averages below.
Head-to-head
Head-to-head record: New Zealand Breakers 3, Cairns Taipans 2.
- Average total 190.2 points per meeting
- Over 186.5 4 of 5 against this game’s total
- Last meeting CAI by 2 Oct 25, 2026
Meetings
- Oct 25, 2026 NBL Cairns Taipans 86–84 New Zealand Breakers 170 pts
- Feb 19, 2026 NBL New Zealand Breakers 115–84 Cairns Taipans 199 pts
- Jan 17, 2026 NBL Cairns Taipans 86–104 New Zealand Breakers 190 pts
- Dec 19, 2025 NBL Cairns Taipans 99–95 New Zealand Breakers 194 pts
- Nov 22, 2025 NBL Cairns Taipans 96–102 New Zealand Breakers 198 pts
Last five games
New Zealand Breakers
3-2 - Sep 26: Perth 97, New Zealand Breakers 93. Lost. Odds: Perth 1.47, New Zealand Breakers 2.60.
- Sep 22: Brisbane Bullets 88, New Zealand Breakers 85. Lost. Odds: Brisbane Bullets 1.97, New Zealand Breakers 1.81.
- Sep 20: New Zealand Breakers 95, Illawarra Hawks 81. Won. Odds: New Zealand Breakers 2.21, Illawarra Hawks 1.64.
- Feb 22: Adelaide 107, New Zealand Breakers 111. Won. No odds on record.
- Feb 19: New Zealand Breakers 115, Cairns Taipans 84. Won. No odds on record.
Cairns Taipans
1-4 - Sep 27: Adelaide 83, Cairns Taipans 69. Lost. Odds: Adelaide 1.27, Cairns Taipans 3.55.
- Sep 23: Cairns Taipans 93, Tasmania JackJumpers 87. Won. Odds: Cairns Taipans 1.76, Tasmania JackJumpers 2.04.
- Sep 20: Sydney 111, Cairns Taipans 90. Lost. Odds: Sydney 1.27, Cairns Taipans 3.60.
- Feb 19: New Zealand Breakers 115, Cairns Taipans 84. Lost. No odds on record.
- Feb 12: Cairns Taipans 85, Melbourne United 89. Lost. No odds on record.
Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.
Key insights
- Over/under moved up from 182.5 to 186.5 since it was first published.
- 3-2 in the last 5 meetings for New Zealand Breakers.
- 1-4 in the last five for Cairns Taipans.
- 190.2 points per meeting across the last 5 head-to-head games; the over/under line is 186.5.
- 9th vs 4th in the NBL standings.
How the odds moved
| Market | Open | Now |
|---|---|---|
| NZB moneyline | 1.56 | moved down 1.51 |
| CAI moneyline | 2.36 | moved up 2.48 |
| Total points | 182.5 | moved up 186.5 |
| NZB spread · regulation | −3.5 | moved down −4.5 |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.
NBL standings
Regular Season
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Pct | PF | PA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sydney |
10 | 7 | 3 | .700 | 979 | 881 | +98 |
| 2 |  Tasmania JackJumpers |
10 | 7 | 3 | .700 | 956 | 908 | +48 |
| 3 |  Perth |
9 | 5 | 4 | .556 | 839 | 870 | −31 |
| 4 | Cairns Taipans |
11 | 6 | 5 | .545 | 1014 | 1062 | −48 |
| 5 |  Melbourne United |
10 | 5 | 5 | .500 | 967 | 925 | +42 |
| 6 |  Brisbane Bullets |
10 | 5 | 5 | .500 | 938 | 967 | −29 |
| 7 |  Adelaide |
11 | 5 | 6 | .455 | 1001 | 1031 | −30 |
| 8 |  South East Melbourne |
10 | 4 | 6 | .400 | 969 | 943 | +26 |
| 9 | New Zealand Breakers |
10 | 4 | 6 | .400 | 922 | 906 | +16 |
| 10 |  Illawarra Hawks |
11 | 3 | 8 | .273 | 1057 | 1149 | −92 |
- Playoffs: Semi-finals
- Playoffs: Quarter-finals
Pct percentage of games won — the table is sorted by it. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.
New Zealand Breakers host Cairns Taipans in the NBL on Wednesday, September 30, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.