New Zealand Breakers vs Adelaide prediction
New Zealand Breakers
24
20
28
29
Adelaide
28
28
18
34
All predictions
3 picks graded · Average confidence 82%Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.
The score the model expects. An estimate, not a bet we publish.
New Zealand Breakers10191Adelaide10885New Zealand Breakers10191Adelaide10885Total 176 Margin NZB by 6 Win NZB 66% Actual 209 · ADE won
New Zealand Breakers
large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction Adelaide
Large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction
Rebounds
Other
Shooting
New Zealand Breakers vs Adelaide
New Zealand Breakers
Adelaide
Last 11 and 10 games with full stats · all competitions
Season record above, per-game averages below.
Head-to-head
Head-to-head record: New Zealand Breakers 2, Adelaide 3.
- Average total 188.0 points per meeting
- Over 182.5 2 of 5 against this game’s total
- Last meeting NZB by 19 Oct 4, 2026
Meetings
- Oct 4, 2026 NBL Adelaide 69–88 New Zealand Breakers 157 pts
- Feb 22, 2026 NBL Adelaide 107–111 New Zealand Breakers 218 pts
- Feb 14, 2026 NBL Adelaide 92–89 New Zealand Breakers 181 pts
- Jan 23, 2026 NBL New Zealand Breakers 110–112 OT Adelaide 222 pts · OT
- Nov 6, 2025 NBL New Zealand Breakers 79–83 Adelaide 162 pts
Last five games
New Zealand Breakers
2-3 - Oct 25: Cairns Taipans 86, New Zealand Breakers 84. Lost. Odds: Cairns Taipans 1.97, New Zealand Breakers 1.77.
- Oct 18: Tasmania JackJumpers 98, New Zealand Breakers 92. Lost. Odds: Tasmania JackJumpers 1.32, New Zealand Breakers 2.47.
- Oct 14: Sydney 101, New Zealand Breakers 102. Won. Odds: Sydney 1.11, New Zealand Breakers 3.90.
- Oct 10: Perth 100, New Zealand Breakers 84. Lost. Odds: Perth 1.34, New Zealand Breakers 3.12.
- Oct 4: Adelaide 69, New Zealand Breakers 88. Won. Odds: Adelaide 1.51, New Zealand Breakers 2.64.
Adelaide
2-3 - Oct 24: South East Melbourne 108, Adelaide 94. Lost. Odds: South East Melbourne 1.71, Adelaide 2.06.
- Oct 16: Tasmania JackJumpers 88, Adelaide 94. Won. Odds: Tasmania JackJumpers 1.49, Adelaide 2.50.
- Oct 11: Sydney 78, Adelaide 84. Won. Odds: Sydney 1.23, Adelaide 3.85.
- Oct 7: Adelaide 91, Melbourne United 96. Lost. Odds: Adelaide 2.40, Melbourne United 1.54.
- Oct 4: Adelaide 69, New Zealand Breakers 88. Lost. Odds: Adelaide 1.51, New Zealand Breakers 2.64.
Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.
Key insights
- 3-2 in the last 5 meetings for Adelaide.
- 188.0 points per meeting across the last 5 head-to-head games; the over/under line is 182.5.
- 9th vs 7th in the NBL standings.
How the odds moved
| Market | Open | Now |
|---|---|---|
| NZB moneyline | 1.83 | moved down 1.80 |
| ADE moneyline | 1.85 | moved up 1.88 |
| Total points | 181.5 | moved up 182.5 |
| NZB spread | +1.5 | moved down −1.5 |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.
NBL standings
Regular Season
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Pct | PF | PA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sydney |
10 | 7 | 3 | .700 | 979 | 881 | +98 |
| 2 |  Tasmania JackJumpers |
10 | 7 | 3 | .700 | 956 | 908 | +48 |
| 3 |  Perth |
9 | 5 | 4 | .556 | 839 | 870 | −31 |
| 4 |  Cairns Taipans |
11 | 6 | 5 | .545 | 1014 | 1062 | −48 |
| 5 |  Melbourne United |
10 | 5 | 5 | .500 | 967 | 925 | +42 |
| 6 |  Brisbane Bullets |
10 | 5 | 5 | .500 | 938 | 967 | −29 |
| 7 | Adelaide |
11 | 5 | 6 | .455 | 1001 | 1031 | −30 |
| 8 |  South East Melbourne |
10 | 4 | 6 | .400 | 969 | 943 | +26 |
| 9 | New Zealand Breakers |
10 | 4 | 6 | .400 | 922 | 906 | +16 |
| 10 |  Illawarra Hawks |
11 | 3 | 8 | .273 | 1057 | 1149 | −92 |
- Playoffs: Semi-finals
- Playoffs: Quarter-finals
Pct percentage of games won — the table is sorted by it. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.
New Zealand Breakers host Adelaide in the NBL on Friday, October 30, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.