Nacional vs Aguada Prediction & Odds — Oct 20

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Liga Uruguaya Tuesday, October 20, 2026Tue, Oct 20 Start20:30ET

NacionalHome · 1-2 · 9th · 1.44

8119262115

AguadaAway · 3-1 · 4th · 2.40

8329172512

By quarter 1st 2nd 3rd 4th

Nacional 19 26 21 15

Aguada 29 17 25 12

FT Polideportivo Gran Parque Central · UruguayPolideportivo Gran Parque Central

Best tip of the game

Moneyline Lost

1 1.44 85%

Nacional to win edge +6.3%

Best tip of the game Moneyline · Lost 1 1.44 Nacional to win Confidence85% model 69.7% · market 63.4% edge +6.3%

All predictions

3 picks graded · Average confidence 67%

Picks for this game

Market PickOdds Model Market Edge Confidence Result

Moneyline 1 1.44 69.7% 63.4% +6.3% 85% Lost

Total points O175.5 1.86 51.4% 49.7% +1.7% 53% Lost

Point spread NAC -5.5 1.85 56.3% 49.4% +6.9% 63% Lost

Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

Nacional8192

Aguada8384

Total 176 actual 164

Winning margin NAC by 8 actual AGU by 2

Chance to win NAC 70% AGU won

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

Nacional8192

Aguada8384

Total 176 Margin NAC by 8 Win NAC 70% Actual 164 · AGU won

Predicted team stats

Prediction From 18+ games with full stats per team · no bookmaker odds

Nacional large = predicted · small = actual, above / below the prediction Aguada

Large = predicted · small = actual, above / below the prediction

Other

Shooting

Nacional vs Aguada

Nacional Aguada

Last 28 and 27 games with full stats · all competitions

Season record above, per-game averages below.

Last five games

Nacional 2-3

May 28: Aguada 92, Nacional 91. After overtime. Lost. No odds on record.
May 25: Nacional 74, Aguada 87. Lost. No odds on record.
May 21: Aguada 89, Nacional 109. Won. No odds on record.
May 18: Nacional 83, Aguada 96. Lost. No odds on record.
May 11: Nacional 100, Bigua 78. Won. No odds on record.

Aguada 2-3

Jun 22: Aguada 92, Penarol 107. Lost. No odds on record.
Jun 19: Penarol 80, Aguada 71. Lost. No odds on record.
Jun 16: Aguada 92, Penarol 81. Won. No odds on record.
Jun 12: Aguada 78, Penarol 71. Won. No odds on record.
Jun 9: Penarol 89, Aguada 84. Lost. No odds on record.

Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.

How the odds moved

Market	Open	Now
NAC moneyline	1.43	moved up 1.44
AGU moneyline	2.48	moved down 2.40
Total points	173.5	moved up 175.5
NAC spread	−5.5	moved up −4.5

Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.

Liga Uruguaya standings

Regular Season

#	Team	GP	W	L	Pts	PF	PA	+/−
1	Bigua	4	4	0	8	374	333	+41
2	Goes	4	3	1	7	375	347	+28
3	Malvin	4	2	2	6	308	335	−27
4	Aguada	4	3	1	7	308	292	+16
5	Atenas	4	1	3	5	282	324	−42
6	Union Atletica	4	1	3	5	313	323	−10
7	Urunday	4	1	3	5	337	341	−4
8	Penarol	2	2	0	4	192	155	+37
9	Nacional	3	1	2	4	281	284	−3
10	Hebraica y Macabi	3	1	2	4	244	253	−9
11	Defensor	2	1	1	3	165	153	+12
12	Larranaga	4	1	3	5	314	353	−39

Winners stage
Losers stage

Pts standings points: 2 for a win, 1 for a loss. The table follows the league’s own order. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.

Nacional host Aguada in the Liga Uruguaya on Tuesday, October 20, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.