Minas vs Pato prediction
Minas
24
24
23
15
Pato
14
18
16
17
All predictions
3 picks graded · Average confidence 84%Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.
The score the model expects. An estimate, not a bet we publish.
Minas8690Pato6576Minas8690Pato6576Total 166 Margin MIN by 14 Win MIN 87% Actual 151 · MIN won
Minas
large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction Pato
Large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction
Other
Shooting
Minas vs Pato
Minas
Pato
Last 29 and 30 games with full stats · all competitions
Minas at home, last 25 games · Pato away, last 20
Season record above, per-game averages below.
Head-to-head
Head-to-head record: Minas 2, Pato 0.
- Average total 146.5 points per meeting
- Over 162.5 0 of 2 against this game’s total
- Last meeting MIN by 8 Jan 21, 2026
Meetings
- Jan 21, 2026 NBB Minas 75–67 Pato 142 pts
- Oct 27, 2025 NBB Pato 75–76 Minas 151 pts
Last five games
Minas
3-2 - Oct 22: Uniao Corinthians 71, Minas 88. Won. Odds: Uniao Corinthians 2.70, Minas 1.42.
- Oct 20: Caxias do Sul 66, Minas 78. Won. Odds: Caxias do Sul 4.50, Minas 1.17.
- May 12: Minas 81, Corinthians Paulista 92. Lost. No odds on record.
- May 9: Corinthians Paulista 103, Minas 97. Lost. No odds on record.
- May 7: Corinthians Paulista 91, Minas 97. Won. No odds on record.
Pato
1-4 - Oct 24: Pato 89, Botafogo 88. Won. Odds: Pato 1.95, Botafogo 1.74.
- Oct 21: Pato 74, Paulistano 80. Lost. Odds: Pato 3.20, Paulistano 1.18.
- Apr 18: Paulistano 92, Pato 71. Lost. No odds on record.
- Apr 16: Pinheiros 88, Pato 55. Lost. No odds on record.
- Apr 11: Osasco 77, Pato 68. Lost. No odds on record.
Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.
Key insights
- Rest advantage: 4 days off for Minas, 2 for Pato.
- Net rating difference of 23.3 — Minas +10.3 per 100 possessions, Pato −13.0.
- 1-4 in the last five for Pato.
- 1st vs 14th in the NBB standings.
How the odds moved
| Market | Open | Now |
|---|---|---|
| MIN moneyline | 1.02 | 1.02 |
| PAT moneyline | 8.50 | moved down 8.44 |
| Total points | 163.5 | moved down 162.5 |
| MIN spread | −19.5 | moved up −18.5 |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.
NBB standings
Regular Season
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Pct | PF | PA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minas |
4 | 4 | 0 | 1.000 | 352 | 263 | +89 |
| 2 |  Brasilia |
4 | 3 | 1 | .750 | 345 | 345 | 0 |
| 3 |  Unifacisa |
4 | 3 | 1 | .750 | 344 | 296 | +48 |
| 4 |  Mogi |
4 | 3 | 1 | .750 | 315 | 294 | +21 |
| 5 |  Flamengo |
4 | 3 | 1 | .750 | 322 | 277 | +45 |
| 6 |  Pinheiros |
4 | 3 | 1 | .750 | 327 | 281 | +46 |
| 7 |  Paulistano |
4 | 3 | 1 | .750 | 301 | 302 | −1 |
| 8 |  Franca |
4 | 2 | 2 | .500 | 290 | 276 | +14 |
| 9 |  Cruzeiro |
4 | 2 | 2 | .500 | 302 | 301 | +1 |
| 10 |  Bauru |
4 | 2 | 2 | .500 | 301 | 311 | −10 |
| 11 |  Uniao Corinthians |
5 | 2 | 3 | .400 | 369 | 400 | −31 |
| 12 |  Corinthians Paulista |
3 | 1 | 2 | .333 | 243 | 236 | +7 |
| 13 |  Osasco |
3 | 1 | 2 | .333 | 237 | 254 | −17 |
| 14 | Pato |
4 | 1 | 3 | .250 | 296 | 330 | −34 |
| 15 |  Botafogo |
4 | 1 | 3 | .250 | 323 | 339 | −16 |
| 16 |  Caxias do Sul |
4 | 0 | 4 | .000 | 268 | 311 | −43 |
| 17 |  Cearense |
2 | 0 | 2 | .000 | 132 | 191 | −59 |
| 18 |  Sao Jose |
3 | 0 | 3 | .000 | 210 | 270 | −60 |
- Playoffs: 1/8-finals
Pct percentage of games won — the table is sorted by it. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.
Minas host Pato in the NBB on Tuesday, October 27, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.