Miami Heat vs New Orleans Pelicans prediction
Miami Heat
33
40
20
35
New Orleans Pelicans
36
28
32
22
All predictions
3 picks graded · Average confidence 85%Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.
The score the model expects. An estimate, not a bet we publish.
Miami Heat128129New Orleans Pelicans118119Miami Heat128129New Orleans Pelicans118119Total 248 Margin MIA by 10 Win MIA 71% Actual 246 · MIA won
Miami Heat
large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction New Orleans Pelicans
Large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction
Other
Shooting
Miami Heat vs New Orleans Pelicans
Miami Heat
New Orleans Pelicans
Last 6 games each with full stats · all competitions
Season record above, per-game averages below.
Head-to-head
Head-to-head record: Miami Heat 2, New Orleans Pelicans 0.
- Average total 232.5 points per meeting
- Over 234.5 0 of 2 against this game’s total
- Last meeting MIA by 12 Feb 11, 2026
Meetings
- Feb 11, 2026 NBA New Orleans Pelicans 111–123 Miami Heat 234 pts
- Jan 4, 2026 NBA Miami Heat 125–106 New Orleans Pelicans 231 pts
Last five games
Miami Heat
2-3 - Oct 3: Toronto Raptors 129, Miami Heat 105. Lost. Odds: Toronto Raptors 1.71, Miami Heat 2.06.
- Apr 14: Charlotte Hornets 127, Miami Heat 126. After overtime. Lost. No odds on record.
- Apr 12: Miami Heat 143, Atlanta Hawks 117. Won. No odds on record.
- Apr 10: Washington Wizards 117, Miami Heat 140. Won. No odds on record.
- Apr 9: Toronto Raptors 128, Miami Heat 114. Lost. No odds on record.
New Orleans Pelicans
2-3 - Oct 6: Oklahoma City Thunder 110, New Orleans Pelicans 116. Won. Odds: Oklahoma City Thunder 1.95, New Orleans Pelicans 1.85.
- Apr 12: Minnesota Timberwolves 132, New Orleans Pelicans 126. Lost. No odds on record.
- Apr 10: Boston Celtics 144, New Orleans Pelicans 118. Lost. No odds on record.
- Apr 7: New Orleans Pelicans 156, Utah Jazz 137. Won. No odds on record.
- Apr 5: New Orleans Pelicans 108, Orlando Magic 112. Lost. No odds on record.
Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.
Key insights
- Rest advantage: 4 days off for Miami Heat, 1 for New Orleans Pelicans.
- Over/under moved up from 232.5 to 234.5 since it was first published.
How the odds moved
| Market | Open | Now |
|---|---|---|
| MIA moneyline | 1.33 | moved down 1.30 |
| NOP moneyline | 3.25 | moved down 3.10 |
| Total points | 232.5 | moved up 234.5 |
| MIA spread | −7.5 | −7.5 |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.
NBA standings
Pre-season · Eastern Conference
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Pct | PF | PA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boston Celtics |
4 | 4 | 0 | 1.000 | 507 | 432 | +75 |
| 2 |  Atlanta Hawks |
5 | 4 | 1 | .800 | 613 | 586 | +27 |
| 3 |  Brooklyn Nets |
4 | 3 | 1 | .750 | 497 | 464 | +33 |
| 4 |  Orlando Magic |
4 | 3 | 1 | .750 | 495 | 468 | +27 |
| 5 |  Detroit Pistons |
4 | 3 | 1 | .750 | 474 | 452 | +22 |
| 6 |  Chicago Bulls |
5 | 3 | 2 | .600 | 610 | 574 | +36 |
| 7 | Miami Heat |
5 | 3 | 2 | .600 | 640 | 612 | +28 |
| 8 |  Washington Wizards |
4 | 2 | 2 | .500 | 453 | 455 | −2 |
| 9 |  Toronto Raptors |
5 | 2 | 3 | .400 | 612 | 584 | +28 |
| 10 |  Milwaukee Bucks |
5 | 2 | 3 | .400 | 547 | 599 | −52 |
| 11 |  Cleveland Cavaliers |
3 | 1 | 2 | .333 | 348 | 361 | −13 |
| 12 |  Indiana Pacers |
4 | 1 | 3 | .250 | 479 | 473 | +6 |
| 13 |  Philadelphia 76ers |
4 | 1 | 3 | .250 | 454 | 480 | −26 |
| 14 |  Charlotte Hornets |
4 | 1 | 3 | .250 | 386 | 444 | −58 |
| 15 |  New York Knicks |
5 | 1 | 4 | .200 | 530 | 621 | −91 |
Pre-season · Western Conference
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Pct | PF | PA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Memphis Grizzlies |
4 | 3 | 1 | .750 | 470 | 443 | +27 |
| 2 |  Utah Jazz |
4 | 3 | 1 | .750 | 453 | 439 | +14 |
| 3 | New Orleans Pelicans |
4 | 3 | 1 | .750 | 442 | 441 | +1 |
| 4 |  Golden State Warriors |
6 | 4 | 2 | .667 | 683 | 638 | +45 |
| 5 |  Houston Rockets |
3 | 2 | 1 | .667 | 366 | 338 | +28 |
| 6 |  Portland Trail Blazers |
3 | 2 | 1 | .667 | 351 | 344 | +7 |
| 7 |  Los Angeles Clippers |
3 | 2 | 1 | .667 | 332 | 325 | +7 |
| 8 |  Denver Nuggets |
5 | 3 | 2 | .600 | 578 | 571 | +7 |
| 9 |  Minnesota Timberwolves |
6 | 3 | 3 | .500 | 697 | 709 | −12 |
| 10 |  San Antonio Spurs |
5 | 2 | 3 | .400 | 572 | 544 | +28 |
| 11 |  Los Angeles Lakers |
5 | 2 | 3 | .400 | 534 | 559 | −25 |
| 12 |  Dallas Mavericks |
4 | 1 | 3 | .250 | 457 | 486 | −29 |
| 13 |  Phoenix Suns |
5 | 1 | 4 | .200 | 545 | 573 | −28 |
| 14 |  Oklahoma City Thunder |
5 | 1 | 4 | .200 | 549 | 585 | −36 |
| 15 |  Sacramento Kings |
5 | 0 | 5 | .000 | 514 | 588 | −74 |
Pct percentage of games won — the table is sorted by it. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.
Miami Heat host New Orleans Pelicans in the NBA on Thursday, October 8, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.