Miami Heat vs Minnesota Timberwolves prediction
Miami Heat
32
27
22
25
Minnesota Timberwolves
34
35
30
32
All predictions
3 picks graded · Average confidence 73%Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.
The score the model expects. An estimate, not a bet we publish.
Miami Heat106121Minnesota Timberwolves131117Miami Heat106121Minnesota Timberwolves131117Total 238 Margin MIA by 4 Win MIA 61% Actual 237 · MIN won
Miami Heat
large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction Minnesota Timberwolves
Large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction
Rebounds
Other
Shooting
Miami Heat vs Minnesota Timberwolves
Miami Heat
Minnesota Timberwolves
Last 6 and 7 games with full stats · all competitions
Miami Heat at home, last 4 games · Minnesota Timberwolves away, last 4
Season record above, per-game averages below.
Head-to-head
Head-to-head record: Miami Heat 0, Minnesota Timberwolves 3.
- Average total 235.0 points per meeting
- Over 240.5 1 of 3 against this game’s total
- Last meeting MIN by 1 Oct 10, 2026
Meetings
- Oct 10, 2026 NBA Miami Heat 124–125 Minnesota Timberwolves 249 pts
- Jan 6, 2026 NBA Minnesota Timberwolves 122–94 Miami Heat 216 pts
- Jan 3, 2026 NBA Miami Heat 115–125 Minnesota Timberwolves 240 pts
Last five games
Miami Heat
2-3 - Oct 16: Orlando Magic 136, Miami Heat 115. Lost. Odds: Orlando Magic 1.28, Miami Heat 2.95.
- Oct 14: Miami Heat 144, Brooklyn Nets 128. Won. Odds: Miami Heat 1.56, Brooklyn Nets 2.31.
- Oct 10: Miami Heat 124, Minnesota Timberwolves 125. Lost. Odds: Miami Heat 2.10, Minnesota Timberwolves 1.55.
- Oct 8: Miami Heat 128, New Orleans Pelicans 118. Won. Odds: Miami Heat 1.30, New Orleans Pelicans 3.10.
- Oct 3: Toronto Raptors 129, Miami Heat 105. Lost. Odds: Toronto Raptors 1.71, Miami Heat 2.06.
Minnesota Timberwolves
2-3 - Oct 16: Chicago Bulls 133, Minnesota Timberwolves 116. Lost. Odds: Chicago Bulls 1.39, Minnesota Timberwolves 2.75.
- Oct 14: Minnesota Timberwolves 106, Detroit Pistons 128. Lost. Odds: Minnesota Timberwolves 1.50, Detroit Pistons 2.46.
- Oct 12: New York Knicks 104, Minnesota Timberwolves 122. Won. Odds: New York Knicks 1.86, Minnesota Timberwolves 1.88.
- Oct 10: Miami Heat 124, Minnesota Timberwolves 125. Won. Odds: Miami Heat 2.10, Minnesota Timberwolves 1.55.
- Oct 7: Indiana Pacers 123, Minnesota Timberwolves 112. Lost. Odds: Indiana Pacers 2.06, Minnesota Timberwolves 1.71.
Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.
Key insights
- 3-0 in the last 3 meetings for Minnesota Timberwolves.
- Over/under moved down from 243 to 240.5 since it was first published.
- Net rating difference of 12.0 — Miami Heat −1.8 per 100 possessions, Minnesota Timberwolves +10.2.
- 235.0 points per meeting across the last 3 head-to-head games; the over/under line is 240.5.
How the odds moved
| Market | Open | Now |
|---|---|---|
| MIA moneyline | 1.80 | moved down 1.72 |
| MIN moneyline | 1.98 | 1.98 |
| Total points | 243 | moved down 240.5 |
| MIA spread | −1.5 | −1.5 |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.
NBA standings
Pre-season · Eastern Conference
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Pct | PF | PA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boston Celtics |
4 | 4 | 0 | 1.000 | 507 | 432 | +75 |
| 2 |  Atlanta Hawks |
5 | 4 | 1 | .800 | 613 | 586 | +27 |
| 3 |  Brooklyn Nets |
4 | 3 | 1 | .750 | 497 | 464 | +33 |
| 4 |  Orlando Magic |
4 | 3 | 1 | .750 | 495 | 468 | +27 |
| 5 |  Detroit Pistons |
4 | 3 | 1 | .750 | 474 | 452 | +22 |
| 6 |  Chicago Bulls |
5 | 3 | 2 | .600 | 610 | 574 | +36 |
| 7 | Miami Heat |
5 | 3 | 2 | .600 | 640 | 612 | +28 |
| 8 |  Washington Wizards |
4 | 2 | 2 | .500 | 453 | 455 | −2 |
| 9 |  Toronto Raptors |
5 | 2 | 3 | .400 | 612 | 584 | +28 |
| 10 |  Milwaukee Bucks |
5 | 2 | 3 | .400 | 547 | 599 | −52 |
| 11 |  Cleveland Cavaliers |
3 | 1 | 2 | .333 | 348 | 361 | −13 |
| 12 |  Indiana Pacers |
4 | 1 | 3 | .250 | 479 | 473 | +6 |
| 13 |  Philadelphia 76ers |
4 | 1 | 3 | .250 | 454 | 480 | −26 |
| 14 |  Charlotte Hornets |
4 | 1 | 3 | .250 | 386 | 444 | −58 |
| 15 |  New York Knicks |
5 | 1 | 4 | .200 | 530 | 621 | −91 |
Pre-season · Western Conference
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Pct | PF | PA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Memphis Grizzlies |
4 | 3 | 1 | .750 | 470 | 443 | +27 |
| 2 |  Utah Jazz |
4 | 3 | 1 | .750 | 453 | 439 | +14 |
| 3 |  New Orleans Pelicans |
4 | 3 | 1 | .750 | 442 | 441 | +1 |
| 4 |  Golden State Warriors |
6 | 4 | 2 | .667 | 683 | 638 | +45 |
| 5 |  Houston Rockets |
3 | 2 | 1 | .667 | 366 | 338 | +28 |
| 6 |  Portland Trail Blazers |
3 | 2 | 1 | .667 | 351 | 344 | +7 |
| 7 |  Los Angeles Clippers |
3 | 2 | 1 | .667 | 332 | 325 | +7 |
| 8 |  Denver Nuggets |
5 | 3 | 2 | .600 | 578 | 571 | +7 |
| 9 | Minnesota Timberwolves |
6 | 3 | 3 | .500 | 697 | 709 | −12 |
| 10 |  San Antonio Spurs |
5 | 2 | 3 | .400 | 572 | 544 | +28 |
| 11 |  Los Angeles Lakers |
5 | 2 | 3 | .400 | 534 | 559 | −25 |
| 12 |  Dallas Mavericks |
4 | 1 | 3 | .250 | 457 | 486 | −29 |
| 13 |  Phoenix Suns |
5 | 1 | 4 | .200 | 545 | 573 | −28 |
| 14 |  Oklahoma City Thunder |
5 | 1 | 4 | .200 | 549 | 585 | −36 |
| 15 |  Sacramento Kings |
5 | 0 | 5 | .000 | 514 | 588 | −74 |
Pct percentage of games won — the table is sorted by it. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.
Miami Heat host Minnesota Timberwolves in the NBA on Wednesday, October 21, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.