Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers prediction
Miami Heat
36
32
35
42
Indiana Pacers
42
19
27
37
All predictions
3 picks graded · Average confidence 72%Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.
The score the model expects. An estimate, not a bet we publish.
Miami Heat145115Indiana Pacers125114Miami Heat145115Indiana Pacers125114Total 229 Margin MIA by 1 Win MIA 52% Actual 270 · MIA won
Miami Heat
large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction Indiana Pacers
Large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction
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Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers
Miami Heat
Indiana Pacers
Last 6 and 7 games with full stats · all competitions
Miami Heat at home, last 4 games · Indiana Pacers away, last 4
Season record above, per-game averages below.
Head-to-head
Head-to-head record: Miami Heat 1, Indiana Pacers 2.
- Average total 244.3 points per meeting
- Over 237.5 2 of 3 against this game’s total
- Last meeting IND by 17 Mar 29, 2026
Meetings
- Mar 29, 2026 NBA Indiana Pacers 135–118 Miami Heat 253 pts
- Jan 10, 2026 NBA Indiana Pacers 123–99 Miami Heat 222 pts
- Dec 27, 2025 NBA Miami Heat 142–116 Indiana Pacers 258 pts
Last five games
Miami Heat
1-4 - Oct 28: Atlanta Hawks 117, Miami Heat 129. Won. Odds: Atlanta Hawks 1.68, Miami Heat 2.23.
- Oct 26: Miami Heat 109, Dallas Mavericks 113. Lost. Odds: Miami Heat 1.36, Dallas Mavericks 3.25.
- Oct 24: Charlotte Hornets 115, Miami Heat 110. Lost. Odds: Charlotte Hornets 2.39, Miami Heat 1.61.
- Oct 23: Miami Heat 111, Detroit Pistons 128. Lost. Odds: Miami Heat 2.04, Detroit Pistons 1.81.
- Oct 21: Miami Heat 106, Minnesota Timberwolves 131. Lost. Odds: Miami Heat 1.72, Minnesota Timberwolves 1.98.
Indiana Pacers
2-3 - Oct 28: Indiana Pacers 109, Philadelphia 76ers 114. Lost. Odds: Indiana Pacers 3.15, Philadelphia 76ers 1.38.
- Oct 26: Milwaukee Bucks 110, Indiana Pacers 102. Lost. Odds: Milwaukee Bucks 2.40, Indiana Pacers 1.61.
- Oct 25: Brooklyn Nets 109, Indiana Pacers 136. Won. Odds: Brooklyn Nets 2.80, Indiana Pacers 1.45.
- Oct 23: Indiana Pacers 105, Dallas Mavericks 121. Lost. Odds: Indiana Pacers 1.38, Dallas Mavericks 3.15.
- Oct 21: New Orleans Pelicans 120, Indiana Pacers 123. Won. Odds: New Orleans Pelicans 2.20, Indiana Pacers 1.57.
Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.
Key insights
- Odds moved: the odds on Miami Heat dropped from 1.53 to 1.30 since they were first published.
- Over/under moved down from 239.5 to 237.5 since it was first published.
- 2-1 in the last 3 meetings for Indiana Pacers.
- 1-4 in the last five for Miami Heat.
- 244.3 points per meeting across the last 3 head-to-head games; the over/under line is 237.5.
How the odds moved
| Market | Open | Now |
|---|---|---|
| MIA moneyline | 1.53 | moved down 1.30 |
| IND moneyline | 2.57 | moved up 3.65 |
| Total points | 239.5 | moved down 237.5 |
| MIA spread | −7.5 | moved down −8.5 |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.
NBA standings
Pre-season · Eastern Conference
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Pct | PF | PA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boston Celtics |
4 | 4 | 0 | 1.000 | 507 | 432 | +75 |
| 2 |  Atlanta Hawks |
5 | 4 | 1 | .800 | 613 | 586 | +27 |
| 3 |  Brooklyn Nets |
4 | 3 | 1 | .750 | 497 | 464 | +33 |
| 4 |  Orlando Magic |
4 | 3 | 1 | .750 | 495 | 468 | +27 |
| 5 |  Detroit Pistons |
4 | 3 | 1 | .750 | 474 | 452 | +22 |
| 6 |  Chicago Bulls |
5 | 3 | 2 | .600 | 610 | 574 | +36 |
| 7 | Miami Heat |
5 | 3 | 2 | .600 | 640 | 612 | +28 |
| 8 |  Washington Wizards |
4 | 2 | 2 | .500 | 453 | 455 | −2 |
| 9 |  Toronto Raptors |
5 | 2 | 3 | .400 | 612 | 584 | +28 |
| 10 |  Milwaukee Bucks |
5 | 2 | 3 | .400 | 547 | 599 | −52 |
| 11 |  Cleveland Cavaliers |
3 | 1 | 2 | .333 | 348 | 361 | −13 |
| 12 | Indiana Pacers |
4 | 1 | 3 | .250 | 479 | 473 | +6 |
| 13 |  Philadelphia 76ers |
4 | 1 | 3 | .250 | 454 | 480 | −26 |
| 14 |  Charlotte Hornets |
4 | 1 | 3 | .250 | 386 | 444 | −58 |
| 15 |  New York Knicks |
5 | 1 | 4 | .200 | 530 | 621 | −91 |
Pct percentage of games won — the table is sorted by it. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.
Miami Heat host Indiana Pacers in the NBA on Friday, October 30, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.