Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction & Odds

NBA Monday, October 26, 2026Mon, Oct 26 Start19:30ET

Miami HeatHome · 2-4 · 7th · 1.36

10927253225

Dallas MavericksAway · 4-2 · 12th · 3.25

11323303030

By quarter 1st 2nd 3rd 4th

Miami Heat 27 25 32 25

Dallas Mavericks 23 30 30 30

FT Kaseya Center · USAKaseya Center

Best tip of the game

Moneyline Lost

1 1.36 85%

Miami Heat to win edge −4.7%

Best tip of the game Moneyline · Lost 1 1.36 Miami Heat to win Confidence85% model 67.8% · market 72.5% edge −4.7%

All predictions

3 picks graded · Average confidence 80%

Picks for this game

Market PickOdds Model Market Edge Confidence Result

Moneyline 1 1.36 67.8% 72.5% −4.7% 85% Lost

Total points O222.5 1.15 81.3% 73.0% +8.3% 85% Lost

Point spread DAL +16.5 1.29 59.4% 72.6% −13.2% 69% Won

Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

Miami Heat109124

Dallas Mavericks113117

Total 241 actual 222

Winning margin MIA by 7 actual DAL by 4

Chance to win MIA 68% DAL won

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

Miami Heat109124

Dallas Mavericks113117

Total 241 Margin MIA by 7 Win MIA 68% Actual 222 · DAL won

Predicted team stats

Prediction From 17+ games with full stats per team · no bookmaker odds

Miami Heat large = predicted · small = actual, above / below the prediction Dallas Mavericks

Large = predicted · small = actual, above / below the prediction

Rebounds

Other

Shooting

Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavericks

Miami Heat Dallas Mavericks

Last 6 games each with full stats · all competitions

Season record above, per-game averages below.

Last five games

Miami Heat 1-4

Oct 24: Charlotte Hornets 115, Miami Heat 110. Lost. Odds: Charlotte Hornets 2.39, Miami Heat 1.61.
Oct 23: Miami Heat 111, Detroit Pistons 128. Lost. Odds: Miami Heat 2.04, Detroit Pistons 1.81.
Oct 21: Miami Heat 106, Minnesota Timberwolves 131. Lost. Odds: Miami Heat 1.72, Minnesota Timberwolves 1.98.
Oct 16: Orlando Magic 136, Miami Heat 115. Lost. Odds: Orlando Magic 1.28, Miami Heat 2.95.
Oct 14: Miami Heat 144, Brooklyn Nets 128. Won. Odds: Miami Heat 1.56, Brooklyn Nets 2.31.

Dallas Mavericks 1-4

Oct 24: Dallas Mavericks 106, San Antonio Spurs 122. Lost. Odds: Dallas Mavericks 7.00, San Antonio Spurs 1.11.
Oct 23: Indiana Pacers 105, Dallas Mavericks 121. Won. Odds: Indiana Pacers 1.38, Dallas Mavericks 3.15.
Oct 21: Houston Rockets 128, Dallas Mavericks 110. Lost. Odds: Houston Rockets 1.23, Dallas Mavericks 4.40.
Oct 16: Dallas Mavericks 111, Atlanta Hawks 135. Lost. Odds: Dallas Mavericks 1.81, Atlanta Hawks 1.89.
Oct 14: Dallas Mavericks 97, New Orleans Pelicans 101. Lost. Odds: Dallas Mavericks 2.32, New Orleans Pelicans 1.56.

Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.

How the odds moved

Market	Open	Now
MIA moneyline	1.25	moved up 1.36
DAL moneyline	3.40	moved down 3.25
Total points	241.5	moved down 240.5
MIA spread	−8.5	moved up −7.5

Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.

NBA standings

Pre-season · Eastern Conference

#	Team	GP	W	L	Pct	PF	PA	+/−
1	Boston Celtics	4	4	0	1.000	507	432	+75
2	Atlanta Hawks	5	4	1	.800	613	586	+27
3	Brooklyn Nets	4	3	1	.750	497	464	+33
4	Orlando Magic	4	3	1	.750	495	468	+27
5	Detroit Pistons	4	3	1	.750	474	452	+22
6	Chicago Bulls	5	3	2	.600	610	574	+36
7	Miami Heat	5	3	2	.600	640	612	+28
8	Washington Wizards	4	2	2	.500	453	455	−2
9	Toronto Raptors	5	2	3	.400	612	584	+28
10	Milwaukee Bucks	5	2	3	.400	547	599	−52
11	Cleveland Cavaliers	3	1	2	.333	348	361	−13
12	Indiana Pacers	4	1	3	.250	479	473	+6
13	Philadelphia 76ers	4	1	3	.250	454	480	−26
14	Charlotte Hornets	4	1	3	.250	386	444	−58
15	New York Knicks	5	1	4	.200	530	621	−91

Pre-season · Western Conference

#	Team	GP	W	L	Pct	PF	PA	+/−
1	Memphis Grizzlies	4	3	1	.750	470	443	+27
2	Utah Jazz	4	3	1	.750	453	439	+14
3	New Orleans Pelicans	4	3	1	.750	442	441	+1
4	Golden State Warriors	6	4	2	.667	683	638	+45
5	Houston Rockets	3	2	1	.667	366	338	+28
6	Portland Trail Blazers	3	2	1	.667	351	344	+7
7	Los Angeles Clippers	3	2	1	.667	332	325	+7
8	Denver Nuggets	5	3	2	.600	578	571	+7
9	Minnesota Timberwolves	6	3	3	.500	697	709	−12
10	San Antonio Spurs	5	2	3	.400	572	544	+28
11	Los Angeles Lakers	5	2	3	.400	534	559	−25
12	Dallas Mavericks	4	1	3	.250	457	486	−29
13	Phoenix Suns	5	1	4	.200	545	573	−28
14	Oklahoma City Thunder	5	1	4	.200	549	585	−36
15	Sacramento Kings	5	0	5	.000	514	588	−74

Pct percentage of games won — the table is sorted by it. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.

Miami Heat host Dallas Mavericks in the NBA on Monday, October 26, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.