Melbourne United vs Sydney prediction
Melbourne United
32
24
21
28
Sydney
31
20
13
31
All predictions
3 picks graded · Average confidence 82%Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.
The score the model expects. An estimate, not a bet we publish.
Melbourne United10590Sydney9599Melbourne United10590Sydney9599Total 189 Margin SYD by 9 Win SYD 73% Actual 200 · MEL won
Melbourne United
large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction Sydney
Large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction
Rebounds
Other
Shooting
Melbourne United vs Sydney
Melbourne United
Sydney
Last 10 and 9 games with full stats · all competitions
Season record above, per-game averages below.
Head-to-head
Head-to-head record: Melbourne United 1, Sydney 3.
- Average total 189.0 points per meeting
- Over 190.5 2 of 4 against this game’s total
- Last meeting SYD by 3 Jan 11, 2026
Meetings
- Jan 11, 2026 NBL Sydney 97–94 Melbourne United 191 pts
- Dec 13, 2025 NBL Melbourne United 86–92 OT Sydney 178 pts · OT
- Nov 3, 2025 NBL Melbourne United 92–95 Sydney 187 pts
- Oct 8, 2025 NBL Sydney 93–107 Melbourne United 200 pts
Last five games
Melbourne United
2-3 - Oct 23: Perth 103, Melbourne United 102. Lost. Odds: Perth 1.85, Melbourne United 1.83.
- Oct 18: Melbourne United 89, Illawarra Hawks 91. Lost. Odds: Melbourne United 1.15, Illawarra Hawks 4.90.
- Oct 10: South East Melbourne 99, Melbourne United 104. Won. Odds: South East Melbourne 2.18, Melbourne United 1.72.
- Oct 7: Adelaide 91, Melbourne United 96. Won. Odds: Adelaide 2.40, Melbourne United 1.54.
- Oct 3: Melbourne United 95, Cairns Taipans 107. Lost. Odds: Melbourne United 1.17, Cairns Taipans 4.77.
Sydney
3-2 - Oct 22: Illawarra Hawks 82, Sydney 108. Won. Odds: Illawarra Hawks 3.10, Sydney 1.30.
- Oct 17: Sydney 102, Perth 81. Won. Odds: Sydney 1.20, Perth 3.05.
- Oct 14: Sydney 101, New Zealand Breakers 102. Lost. Odds: Sydney 1.11, New Zealand Breakers 3.90.
- Oct 11: Sydney 78, Adelaide 84. Lost. Odds: Sydney 1.23, Adelaide 3.85.
- Sep 30: Sydney 93, Brisbane Bullets 78. Won. Odds: Sydney 1.36, Brisbane Bullets 3.03.
Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.
Key insights
- Over/under moved down from 193.5 to 190.5 since it was first published.
- Net rating difference of 6.9 — Melbourne United +5.3 per 100 possessions, Sydney +12.2.
- 3-1 in the last 4 meetings for Sydney.
- −7.7 points away — Sydney averaged 101.0 at home and 93.3 away this season.
- 189.0 points per meeting across the last 4 head-to-head games; the over/under line is 190.5.
How the odds moved
| Market | Open | Now |
|---|---|---|
| MEL moneyline | 2.00 | moved up 2.12 |
| SYD moneyline | 1.73 | moved down 1.62 |
| Total points | 193.5 | moved down 190.5 |
| MEL spread | +1.5 | moved up +2.5 |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.
NBL standings
Regular Season
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Pct | PF | PA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sydney |
10 | 7 | 3 | .700 | 979 | 881 | +98 |
| 2 |  Tasmania JackJumpers |
10 | 7 | 3 | .700 | 956 | 908 | +48 |
| 3 |  Perth |
9 | 5 | 4 | .556 | 839 | 870 | −31 |
| 4 |  Cairns Taipans |
11 | 6 | 5 | .545 | 1014 | 1062 | −48 |
| 5 | Melbourne United |
10 | 5 | 5 | .500 | 967 | 925 | +42 |
| 6 |  Brisbane Bullets |
10 | 5 | 5 | .500 | 938 | 967 | −29 |
| 7 |  Adelaide |
11 | 5 | 6 | .455 | 1001 | 1031 | −30 |
| 8 |  South East Melbourne |
10 | 4 | 6 | .400 | 969 | 943 | +26 |
| 9 |  New Zealand Breakers |
10 | 4 | 6 | .400 | 922 | 906 | +16 |
| 10 |  Illawarra Hawks |
11 | 3 | 8 | .273 | 1057 | 1149 | −92 |
- Playoffs: Semi-finals
- Playoffs: Quarter-finals
Pct percentage of games won — the table is sorted by it. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.
Melbourne United host Sydney in the NBL on Sunday, October 25, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.