Melbourne United vs New Zealand Breakers prediction
Melbourne United
28
15
27
24
New Zealand Breakers
19
20
16
19
All predictions
3 picks graded · Average confidence 74%Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.
The score the model expects. An estimate, not a bet we publish.
Melbourne United9495New Zealand Breakers7494Melbourne United9495New Zealand Breakers7494Total 189 Margin MEL by 1 Win MEL 51% Actual 168 · MEL won
Melbourne United
large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction New Zealand Breakers
Large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction
Rebounds
Other
Shooting
Melbourne United vs New Zealand Breakers
Melbourne United
New Zealand Breakers
Last 10 and 11 games with full stats · all competitions
Melbourne United at home, last 4 games · New Zealand Breakers away, last 8
Season record above, per-game averages below.
Head-to-head
Head-to-head record: Melbourne United 2, New Zealand Breakers 1.
- Average total 193.3 points per meeting
- Over 190.5 3 of 3 against this game’s total
- Last meeting NZB by 2 Jan 30, 2026
Meetings
- Jan 30, 2026 NBL New Zealand Breakers 97–95 Melbourne United 192 pts
- Oct 18, 2025 NBL Melbourne United 104–88 New Zealand Breakers 192 pts
- Sep 21, 2025 NBL Melbourne United 114–82 New Zealand Breakers 196 pts
Last five games
Melbourne United
3-2 - Oct 31: Cairns Taipans 97, Melbourne United 113. Won. Odds: Cairns Taipans 3.00, Melbourne United 1.35.
- Oct 25: Melbourne United 105, Sydney 95. Won. Odds: Melbourne United 2.12, Sydney 1.62.
- Oct 23: Perth 103, Melbourne United 102. Lost. Odds: Perth 1.85, Melbourne United 1.83.
- Oct 18: Melbourne United 89, Illawarra Hawks 91. Lost. Odds: Melbourne United 1.15, Illawarra Hawks 4.90.
- Oct 10: South East Melbourne 99, Melbourne United 104. Won. Odds: South East Melbourne 2.18, Melbourne United 1.72.
New Zealand Breakers
1-4 - Oct 30: New Zealand Breakers 101, Adelaide 108. Lost. Odds: New Zealand Breakers 1.80, Adelaide 1.88.
- Oct 25: Cairns Taipans 86, New Zealand Breakers 84. Lost. Odds: Cairns Taipans 1.97, New Zealand Breakers 1.77.
- Oct 18: Tasmania JackJumpers 98, New Zealand Breakers 92. Lost. Odds: Tasmania JackJumpers 1.32, New Zealand Breakers 2.47.
- Oct 14: Sydney 101, New Zealand Breakers 102. Won. Odds: Sydney 1.11, New Zealand Breakers 3.90.
- Oct 10: Perth 100, New Zealand Breakers 84. Lost. Odds: Perth 1.34, New Zealand Breakers 3.12.
Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.
Key insights
- 3-game losing streak for New Zealand Breakers coming into this game.
- Net rating difference of 6.6 — Melbourne United +5.3 per 100 possessions, New Zealand Breakers −1.3.
- 2-1 in the last 3 meetings for Melbourne United.
- 193.3 points per meeting across the last 3 head-to-head games; the over/under line is 190.5.
- 5th vs 9th in the NBL standings.
How the odds moved
| Market | Open | Now |
|---|---|---|
| MEL moneyline | 1.22 | moved up 1.26 |
| NZB moneyline | 4.00 | moved down 3.40 |
| Total points | 191.5 | moved down 190.5 |
| MEL spread | −7.5 | moved down −8.5 |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.
NBL standings
Regular Season
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Pct | PF | PA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sydney |
10 | 7 | 3 | .700 | 979 | 881 | +98 |
| 2 |  Tasmania JackJumpers |
10 | 7 | 3 | .700 | 956 | 908 | +48 |
| 3 |  Perth |
9 | 5 | 4 | .556 | 839 | 870 | −31 |
| 4 |  Cairns Taipans |
11 | 6 | 5 | .545 | 1014 | 1062 | −48 |
| 5 | Melbourne United |
10 | 5 | 5 | .500 | 967 | 925 | +42 |
| 6 |  Brisbane Bullets |
10 | 5 | 5 | .500 | 938 | 967 | −29 |
| 7 |  Adelaide |
11 | 5 | 6 | .455 | 1001 | 1031 | −30 |
| 8 |  South East Melbourne |
10 | 4 | 6 | .400 | 969 | 943 | +26 |
| 9 | New Zealand Breakers |
10 | 4 | 6 | .400 | 922 | 906 | +16 |
| 10 |  Illawarra Hawks |
11 | 3 | 8 | .273 | 1057 | 1149 | −92 |
- Playoffs: Semi-finals
- Playoffs: Quarter-finals
Pct percentage of games won — the table is sorted by it. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.
Melbourne United host New Zealand Breakers in the NBL on Monday, November 2, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.