Melbourne United vs Illawarra Hawks Prediction & Odds — Oct 18

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NBL Sunday, October 18, 2026Sun, Oct 18 Start02:00ET Round 5

Melbourne UnitedHome · 5-5 · 5th · 1.15

8927162224

Illawarra HawksAway · 3-8 · 10th · 4.90

9121352213

By quarter 1st 2nd 3rd 4th

Melbourne United 27 16 22 24

Illawarra Hawks 21 35 22 13

FT John Cain Arena · AustraliaJohn Cain Arena · Round 5

Best tip of the game

Point spread Won

ILL +18.5 1.28 85%

Illawarra Hawks +18.5 on the spread edge +12.3%

Best tip of the game Point spread · Won ILL +18.5 1.28 Illawarra Hawks +18.5 on the spread Confidence85% model 80.3% · market 68.0% edge +12.3%

All predictions

3 picks graded · Average confidence 76%

Picks for this game

Market PickOdds Model Market Edge Confidence Result

Moneyline 1 1.15 54.4% 78.8% −24.4% 59% Lost

Total points U208.5 1.41 71.2% 68.3% +2.9% 85% Won

Point spread ILL +18.5 1.28 80.3% 68.0% +12.3% 85% Won

Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

Melbourne United8999

Illawarra Hawks9198

Total 197 actual 180

Winning margin MEL by 1 actual ILL by 2

Chance to win MEL 54% ILL won

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

Melbourne United8999

Illawarra Hawks9198

Total 197 Margin MEL by 1 Win MEL 54% Actual 180 · ILL won

Predicted team stats

Prediction From 6+ games with full stats per team · no bookmaker odds

Melbourne United large = predicted · small = actual, above / below the prediction Illawarra Hawks

Large = predicted · small = actual, above / below the prediction

Rebounds

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Melbourne United vs Illawarra Hawks

Melbourne United Illawarra Hawks

Last 10 and 11 games with full stats · all competitions

Season record above, per-game averages below.

Last five games

Melbourne United 3-2

Oct 10: South East Melbourne 99, Melbourne United 104. Won. Odds: South East Melbourne 2.18, Melbourne United 1.72.
Oct 7: Adelaide 91, Melbourne United 96. Won. Odds: Adelaide 2.40, Melbourne United 1.54.
Oct 3: Melbourne United 95, Cairns Taipans 107. Lost. Odds: Melbourne United 1.17, Cairns Taipans 4.77.
Oct 1: Tasmania JackJumpers 84, Melbourne United 82. Lost. Odds: Tasmania JackJumpers 3.00, Melbourne United 1.36.
Sep 24: South East Melbourne 61, Melbourne United 86. Won. Odds: South East Melbourne 2.10, Melbourne United 1.70.

Illawarra Hawks 1-4

Oct 11: Illawarra Hawks 100, Cairns Taipans 110. Lost. Odds: Illawarra Hawks 1.74, Cairns Taipans 2.05.
Oct 9: Illawarra Hawks 112, Tasmania JackJumpers 122. Lost. Odds: Illawarra Hawks 1.68, Tasmania JackJumpers 2.10.
Oct 4: South East Melbourne 113, Illawarra Hawks 96. Lost. Odds: South East Melbourne 1.60, Illawarra Hawks 2.27.
Oct 2: Illawarra Hawks 114, Adelaide 92. Won. Odds: Illawarra Hawks 2.85, Adelaide 1.40.
Sep 27: Sydney 121, Illawarra Hawks 100. Lost. Odds: Sydney 1.23, Illawarra Hawks 3.91.

Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.

How the odds moved

Market	Open	Now
MEL moneyline	1.19	moved down 1.15
ILL moneyline	4.42	moved up 4.90
Total points	199.5	moved up 200.5
MEL spread	−11.5	−11.5

Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.

NBL standings

Regular Season

#	Team	GP	W	L	Pct	PF	PA	+/−
1	Sydney	10	7	3	.700	979	881	+98
2	Tasmania JackJumpers	10	7	3	.700	956	908	+48
3	Perth	9	5	4	.556	839	870	−31
4	Cairns Taipans	11	6	5	.545	1014	1062	−48
5	Melbourne United	10	5	5	.500	967	925	+42
6	Brisbane Bullets	10	5	5	.500	938	967	−29
7	Adelaide	11	5	6	.455	1001	1031	−30
8	South East Melbourne	10	4	6	.400	969	943	+26
9	New Zealand Breakers	10	4	6	.400	922	906	+16
10	Illawarra Hawks	11	3	8	.273	1057	1149	−92

Playoffs: Semi-finals
Playoffs: Quarter-finals

Pct percentage of games won — the table is sorted by it. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.

Melbourne United host Illawarra Hawks in the NBL on Sunday, October 18, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.