Mega Basket vs Zadar Prediction & Odds

ABA League Sunday, October 11, 2026Sun, Oct 11 Start06:00ET Round 3

Mega BasketHome · 2-2 · 9th · 1.80

8819231828

ZadarAway · 2-2 · 5th · 1.94

8220162422

By quarter 1st 2nd 3rd 4th

Mega Basket 19 23 18 28

Zadar 20 16 24 22

FT Hala sportova RankoHala sportova Ranko · Round 3

Best tip of the game

Total points Won

O156.5 1.44 67%

Over 156.5 points edge +2.4%

Best tip of the game Total points · Won O156.5 1.44 Over 156.5 points Confidence67% model 66.5% · market 64.1% edge +2.4%

All predictions

3 picks graded · Average confidence 62%

Picks for this game

Market PickOdds Model Market Edge Confidence Result

Moneyline 2 1.94 69.8% 47.3% +22.5% 59% Lost

Total points O156.5 1.44 66.5% 64.1% +2.4% 67% Won

Point spread ZAD +3.5 1.60 76.5% 54.6% +21.9% 61% Lost

Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

Mega Basket8878

Zadar8287

Total 165 actual 170

Winning margin ZAD by 9 actual MEG by 6

Chance to win ZAD 70% MEG won

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

Mega Basket8878

Zadar8287

Total 165 Margin ZAD by 9 Win ZAD 70% Actual 170 · MEG won

Predicted team stats

Prediction From 18+ games with full stats per team · no bookmaker odds

Mega Basket large = predicted · small = actual, above / below the prediction Zadar

Large = predicted · small = actual, above / below the prediction

Rebounds

Other

Shooting

Mega Basket vs Zadar

Mega Basket Zadar

Last 28 and 10 games with full stats · all competitions

Season record above, per-game averages below.

Last five games

Mega Basket 3-2

Oct 5: Partizan Mozzart Bet 83, Mega Basket 59. Lost. Odds: Partizan Mozzart Bet 1.07, Mega Basket 7.48.
Apr 26: Borac Mozzart 89, Mega Basket 98. Won. No odds on record.
Apr 20: Mega Basket 95, Split 72. Won. No odds on record.
Apr 13: Studentski Centar 89, Mega Basket 85. Lost. No odds on record.
Apr 6: Mega Basket 103, KK Krka Novo mesto 98. After overtime. Won. No odds on record.

Zadar 3-2

Oct 5: Zadar 79, Studentski Centar 65. Won. Odds: Zadar 1.41, Studentski Centar 2.81.
Oct 2: Skrljevo 69, Zadar 107. Won. Odds: Skrljevo 4.75, Zadar 1.14.
Sep 27: Zadar 81, Samobor 59. Won. Odds: Zadar 1.05, Samobor 7.50.
Jun 10: Zadar 75, Cibona 82. Lost. No odds on record.
Jun 7: Cibona 73, Zadar 67. Lost. No odds on record.

Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.

How the odds moved

Market	Open	Now
MEG moneyline	1.74	moved up 1.80
ZAD moneyline	1.95	moved down 1.94
Total points	162.5	moved up 164.5
MEG spread	−2.5	moved up −1.5

Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.

ABA League standings

Regular Season · Group B

#	Team	GP	W	L	Pts	PF	PA	+/−
1	Partizan Mozzart Bet	4	4	0	8	353	301	+52
2	Dubai	4	4	0	8	378	328	+50
3	KK Bosna	5	3	2	8	450	433	+17
4	Perspektiva Ilirija	5	2	3	7	396	406	−10
5	Zadar	4	2	2	6	319	301	+18
6	Cluj-Napoca	4	2	2	6	355	343	+12
7	Spartak Subotica	4	2	2	6	330	328	+2
8	Vienna Basket	5	1	4	6	409	439	−30
9	Mega Basket	4	2	2	6	303	349	−46
10	Studentski Centar	5	0	5	5	406	471	−65

Winners stage
Losers stage

Pts standings points: 2 for a win, 1 for a loss — the table is sorted by them. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.

Mega Basket host Zadar in the ABA League on Sunday, October 11, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.