Malvin vs Penarol Prediction & Odds — Oct 28

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Liga Uruguaya Wednesday, October 28, 2026Wed, Oct 28 Start20:30ET

MalvinHome · 2-2 · 3rd · 4.10

7625191616

PenarolAway · 2-0 · 8th · 1.14

10130283013

By quarter 1st 2nd 3rd 4th

Malvin 25 19 16 16

Penarol 30 28 30 13

FT Malvin · UruguayMalvin

Best tip of the game

Point spread Lost

MAL +10.5 1.78 51%

Malvin +10.5 on the spread edge −1.1%

Best tip of the game Point spread · Lost MAL +10.5 1.78 Malvin +10.5 on the spread Confidence51% model 50.1% · market 51.2% edge −1.1%

All predictions

3 picks graded · Average confidence 65%

Picks for this game

Market PickOdds Model Market Edge Confidence Result

Moneyline 2 1.14 63.5% 76.2% −12.7% 77% Won

Total points O158.5 1.85 68.8% 49.9% +18.9% 68% Won

Point spread MAL +10.5 1.78 50.1% 51.2% −1.1% 51% Lost

Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

Malvin7681

Penarol10186

Total 167 actual 177

Winning margin PEN by 5 actual PEN by 25

Chance to win PEN 63% PEN won

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

Malvin7681

Penarol10186

Total 167 Margin PEN by 5 Win PEN 63% Actual 177 · PEN won

Predicted team stats

Prediction From 19+ games with full stats per team · no bookmaker odds

Malvin large = predicted · small = actual, above / below the prediction Penarol

Large = predicted · small = actual, above / below the prediction

Other

Shooting

Malvin vs Penarol

Malvin Penarol

Last 29 games each with full stats · all competitions

Season record above, per-game averages below.

Last five games

Malvin 2-3

Oct 22: Goes 90, Malvin 71. Lost. Odds: Goes 1.62, Malvin 2.02.
Oct 20: Malvin 77, Atenas 66. Won. Odds: Malvin 1.06, Atenas 5.80.
May 15: Defensor 85, Malvin 78. Lost. No odds on record.
May 12: Malvin 83, Defensor 81. Won. No odds on record.
May 9: Defensor 80, Malvin 58. Lost. No odds on record.

Penarol 3-2

Oct 21: Urunday 79, Penarol 91. Won. Odds: Urunday 4.20, Penarol 1.17.
Jun 22: Aguada 92, Penarol 107. Won. No odds on record.
Jun 19: Penarol 80, Aguada 71. Won. No odds on record.
Jun 16: Aguada 92, Penarol 81. Lost. No odds on record.
Jun 12: Aguada 78, Penarol 71. Lost. No odds on record.

Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.

How the odds moved

Market	Open	Now
MAL moneyline	4.20	moved down 4.10
PEN moneyline	1.15	moved down 1.14
Total points	158.5	moved down 157.5
MAL spread	+9.5	+9.5

Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.

Liga Uruguaya standings

Regular Season

#	Team	GP	W	L	Pts	PF	PA	+/−
1	Bigua	4	4	0	8	374	333	+41
2	Goes	4	3	1	7	375	347	+28
3	Malvin	4	2	2	6	308	335	−27
4	Aguada	4	3	1	7	308	292	+16
5	Atenas	4	1	3	5	282	324	−42
6	Union Atletica	4	1	3	5	313	323	−10
7	Urunday	4	1	3	5	337	341	−4
8	Penarol	2	2	0	4	192	155	+37
9	Nacional	3	1	2	4	281	284	−3
10	Hebraica y Macabi	3	1	2	4	244	253	−9
11	Defensor	2	1	1	3	165	153	+12
12	Larranaga	4	1	3	5	314	353	−39

Winners stage
Losers stage

Pts standings points: 2 for a win, 1 for a loss. The table follows the league’s own order. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.

Malvin host Penarol in the Liga Uruguaya on Wednesday, October 28, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.