Las Vegas Aces vs Los Angeles Sparks prediction
Las Vegas Aces
24
18
23
24
Los Angeles Sparks
11
22
18
28
All predictions
3 picks graded · Average confidence 63%Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.
The score the model expects. An estimate, not a bet we publish.
Las Vegas Aces8987Los Angeles Sparks7990Las Vegas Aces8987Los Angeles Sparks7990Total 177 Margin LAS by 3 Win LAS 59% Actual 168 · LVA won
Las Vegas Aces
large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction Los Angeles Sparks
Large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction
Rebounds
Other
Shooting
Las Vegas Aces vs Los Angeles Sparks
Las Vegas Aces
Los Angeles Sparks
Last 29 games each with full stats · all competitions
Las Vegas Aces at home, last 22 games · Los Angeles Sparks away, last 22
Season record above, per-game averages below.
Head-to-head
Head-to-head record: Las Vegas Aces 4, Los Angeles Sparks 1.
- Average total 173.6 points per meeting
- Over 178.5 2 of 5 against this game’s total
- Last meeting LVA by 10 Jun 2, 2026
Meetings
- Jun 2, 2026 WNBA Los Angeles Sparks 69–79 Las Vegas Aces 148 pts
- May 23, 2026 WNBA Las Vegas Aces 95–101 Los Angeles Sparks 196 pts
- May 10, 2026 WNBA Los Angeles Sparks 78–105 Las Vegas Aces 183 pts
- Sep 11, 2025 WNBA Los Angeles Sparks 75–103 Las Vegas Aces 178 pts
- Jul 29, 2025 WNBA Los Angeles Sparks 74–89 Las Vegas Aces 163 pts
Last five games
Las Vegas Aces
5-0 - Sep 20: Las Vegas Aces 98, Seattle Storm 77. Won. Odds: Las Vegas Aces 1.04, Seattle Storm 8.50.
- Sep 17: Seattle Storm 77, Las Vegas Aces 114. Won. Odds: Seattle Storm 4.51, Las Vegas Aces 1.19.
- Aug 28: Las Vegas Aces 93, Toronto Tempo 73. Won. No odds on record.
- Aug 23: Toronto Tempo 78, Las Vegas Aces 88. Won. No odds on record.
- Aug 20: Las Vegas Aces 101, Connecticut Sun 78. Won. No odds on record.
Los Angeles Sparks
3-2 - Sep 20: Los Angeles Sparks 105, Portland Fire 84. Won. Odds: Los Angeles Sparks 1.73, Portland Fire 2.06.
- Sep 17: Dallas Wings 97, Los Angeles Sparks 77. Lost. Odds: Dallas Wings 1.26, Los Angeles Sparks 3.68.
- Aug 30: Seattle Storm 74, Los Angeles Sparks 90. Won. No odds on record.
- Aug 28: Los Angeles Sparks 88, Washington Mystics 82. Won. No odds on record.
- Aug 24: Los Angeles Sparks 71, Atlanta Dream 78. Lost. No odds on record.
Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.
Key insights
- 5-game winning streak for Las Vegas Aces coming into this game.
- Net rating difference of 11.7 — Las Vegas Aces +6.5 per 100 possessions, Los Angeles Sparks −5.2.
- 4-1 in the last 5 meetings for Las Vegas Aces.
- 173.6 points per meeting across the last 5 head-to-head games; the over/under line is 178.5.
- 3rd vs 6th in the WNBA standings.
How the odds moved
| Market | Open | Now |
|---|---|---|
| LVA moneyline | 1.08 | moved down 1.05 |
| LAS moneyline | 7.50 | moved up 10.00 |
| Total points | 179.5 | moved down 178.5 |
| LVA spread | −16.5 | moved down −17.5 |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.
WNBA standings
Regular Season · Western Conference
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Pct | PF | PA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Minnesota Lynx |
44 | 33 | 11 | .750 | 3997 | 3681 | +316 |
| 2 |  Golden State Valkyries |
44 | 32 | 12 | .727 | 3615 | 3306 | +309 |
| 3 | Las Vegas Aces |
44 | 31 | 13 | .705 | 4025 | 3776 | +249 |
| 4 |  Dallas Wings |
44 | 27 | 17 | .614 | 3933 | 3751 | +182 |
| 5 |  Portland Fire |
44 | 17 | 27 | .386 | 3794 | 4005 | −211 |
| 6 | Los Angeles Sparks |
44 | 16 | 28 | .364 | 3830 | 4018 | −188 |
| 7 |  Phoenix Mercury |
44 | 16 | 28 | .364 | 3712 | 3854 | −142 |
| 8 |  Seattle Storm |
44 | 8 | 36 | .182 | 3616 | 3913 | −297 |
Pct percentage of games won — the table is sorted by it. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.
Las Vegas Aces host Los Angeles Sparks in the WNBA on Tuesday, September 22, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.