Las Vegas Aces vs Indiana Fever Prediction & Odds — Oct 1

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WNBA Thursday, October 1, 2026Thu, Oct 1 Start21:00ET Quarter-finals

Las Vegas AcesHome · 31-13 · 3rd · 1.53

9431231624

Indiana FeverAway · 28-16 · 6th · 2.55

8331171718

By quarter 1st 2nd 3rd 4th

Las Vegas Aces 31 23 16 24

Indiana Fever 31 17 17 18

FT Michelob Ultra Arena · USAMichelob Ultra Arena · Quarter-finals

Best tip of the game

Moneyline Lost

2 2.55 51%

Indiana Fever to win edge +0.8%

Best tip of the game Moneyline · Lost 2 2.55 Indiana Fever to win Confidence51% model 40.1% · market 39.3% edge +0.8%

All predictions

3 picks graded · Average confidence 61%

Picks for this game

Market PickOdds Model Market Edge Confidence Result

Moneyline 2 2.55 40.1% 39.3% +0.8% 51% Lost

Total points O180.5 1.71 58.4% 50.0% +8.4% 62% Lost

Point spread IND +4.5 1.86 60.6% 48.8% +11.8% 71% Lost

Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

Las Vegas Aces9492

Indiana Fever8393

Total 185 actual 177

Winning margin IND by 1 actual LVA by 11

Chance to win LVA 50% LVA won

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

Las Vegas Aces9492

Indiana Fever8393

Total 185 Margin IND by 1 Win LVA 50% Actual 177 · LVA won

Predicted team stats

Prediction From 19+ games with full stats per team · no bookmaker odds

Las Vegas Aces large = predicted · small = actual, above / below the prediction Indiana Fever

Large = predicted · small = actual, above / below the prediction

Rebounds

Other

Shooting

Las Vegas Aces vs Indiana Fever

Las Vegas Aces Indiana Fever

Last 29 and 30 games with full stats · all competitions

Season record above, per-game averages below.

Last five games

Las Vegas Aces 4-1

Sep 29: Indiana Fever 99, Las Vegas Aces 89. Lost. Odds: Indiana Fever 1.85, Las Vegas Aces 1.98.
Sep 24: Phoenix Mercury 82, Las Vegas Aces 100. Won. Odds: Phoenix Mercury 4.60, Las Vegas Aces 1.19.
Sep 22: Las Vegas Aces 89, Los Angeles Sparks 79. Won. Odds: Las Vegas Aces 1.05, Los Angeles Sparks 10.00.
Sep 20: Las Vegas Aces 98, Seattle Storm 77. Won. Odds: Las Vegas Aces 1.04, Seattle Storm 8.50.
Sep 17: Seattle Storm 77, Las Vegas Aces 114. Won. Odds: Seattle Storm 4.51, Las Vegas Aces 1.19.

Indiana Fever 3-2

Sep 29: Indiana Fever 99, Las Vegas Aces 89. Won. Odds: Indiana Fever 1.85, Las Vegas Aces 1.98.
Sep 24: Minnesota Lynx 86, Indiana Fever 66. Lost. Odds: Minnesota Lynx 2.55, Indiana Fever 1.50.
Sep 22: Indiana Fever 96, Minnesota Lynx 77. Won. Odds: Indiana Fever 1.65, Minnesota Lynx 2.20.
Sep 20: Indiana Fever 77, Washington Mystics 93. Lost. Odds: Indiana Fever 1.37, Washington Mystics 3.00.
Sep 18: Toronto Tempo 85, Indiana Fever 103. Won. Odds: Toronto Tempo 6.44, Indiana Fever 1.10.

Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.

How the odds moved

Market	Open	Now
LVA moneyline	1.57	moved down 1.53
IND moneyline	2.42	moved up 2.55
Total points	180.5	moved up 183.5
LVA spread	−4.5	−4.5

Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.

WNBA standings

Regular Season

#	Team	GP	W	L	Pct	PF	PA	+/−
1	Minnesota Lynx	44	33	11	.750	3997	3681	+316
2	Golden State Valkyries	44	32	12	.727	3615	3306	+309
3	Las Vegas Aces	44	31	13	.705	4025	3776	+249
4	Atlanta Dream	44	30	14	.682	4019	3717	+302
5	Washington Mystics	44	28	16	.636	3696	3640	+56
6	Indiana Fever	44	28	16	.636	4222	3979	+243
7	Dallas Wings	44	27	17	.614	3933	3751	+182
8	New York Liberty	44	26	18	.591	3941	3802	+139
9	Portland Fire	44	17	27	.386	3794	4005	−211
10	Chicago Sky	44	16	28	.364	3818	3989	−171
11	Los Angeles Sparks	44	16	28	.364	3830	4018	−188
12	Phoenix Mercury	44	16	28	.364	3712	3854	−142
13	Connecticut Sun	44	11	33	.250	3470	3875	−405
14	Toronto Tempo	44	11	33	.250	3770	4152	−382
15	Seattle Storm	44	8	36	.182	3616	3913	−297

Playoffs

Pct percentage of games won — the table is sorted by it. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.

Las Vegas Aces host Indiana Fever in the WNBA on Thursday, October 1, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.