Japan vs South Korea prediction
Japan
15
8
28
19
South Korea
27
15
21
12
All predictions
3 picks graded · Average confidence 66%Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.
The score the model expects. An estimate, not a bet we publish.
Japan7073South Korea7560Japan7073South Korea7560Total 133 Margin JAP by 13 Win JAP 79% Actual 145 · SOU won
Japan vs South Korea
Japan
South Korea
Head-to-head
Head-to-head record: Japan 1, South Korea 0.
- Average total 139.0 points per meeting
- Over 150.5 0 of 1 against this game’s total
- Last meeting JAP by 23 Oct 3, 2023
Meetings
- Oct 3, 2023 Asian Games Women Japan 81–58 South Korea 139 pts
Last five games
Japan
5-0 - Sep 25: Japan 80, Chinese Taipei 52. Won. Odds: Japan 1.01, Chinese Taipei 10.50.
- Sep 24: Japan 86, Thailand 29. Won. Odds: Japan –, Thailand 12.00.
- Sep 22: Japan 89, Philippines 67. Won. Odds: Japan –, Philippines 12.00.
- Sep 20: Kazakhstan 23, Japan 88. Won. Odds: Kazakhstan 12.00, Japan –.
- Sep 17: Japan 114, Hong Kong 37. Won. Odds: Japan –, Hong Kong 17.00.
South Korea
5-0 - Sep 25: South Korea 85, China 80. Won. Odds: South Korea 6.00, China 1.09.
- Sep 23: South Korea 101, Indonesia 59. Won. Odds: South Korea –, Indonesia 17.00.
- Sep 22: South Korea 73, Chinese Taipei 59. Won. Odds: South Korea –, Chinese Taipei 12.00.
- Sep 21: Mongolia 61, South Korea 88. Won. Odds: Mongolia 12.00, South Korea –.
- Sep 17: South Korea 106, Malaysia 40. Won. Odds: South Korea –, Malaysia 17.00.
Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.
Key insights
- Second game in two days for both teams — Japan and South Korea played yesterday.
- 6-game winning streak for South Korea coming into this game.
- 5-game winning streak for Japan coming into this game.
- 4-1 at home for Japan this season.
How the odds moved
| Market | Open | Now |
|---|---|---|
| JAP moneyline | 1.58 | moved down 1.50 |
| SOU moneyline | 2.28 | moved up 2.45 |
| Total points | 149.5 | moved up 150.5 |
| JAP spread · regulation | −2.5 | moved down −4.5 |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.
Asian Games Women standings
Regular Season · Group B
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Pts | PF | PA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Japan |
3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 291 | 127 | +164 |
| 2 |  Philippines |
3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 243 | 220 | +23 |
| 3 |  Kazakhstan |
3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 161 | 251 | −90 |
| 4 |  Hong Kong |
3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 187 | 284 | −97 |
Regular Season · Group C
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Pts | PF | PA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Korea |
3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 267 | 160 | +107 |
| 2 |  Chinese Taipei |
3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 233 | 199 | +34 |
| 3 |  Mongolia |
3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 217 | 245 | −28 |
| 4 |  Malaysia |
3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 180 | 293 | −113 |
- Playoffs: Quarter-finals
- Ranking of third-placed teams
Pts standings points: 2 for a win, 1 for a loss — the table is sorted by them. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.
Japan host South Korea in the Asian Games Women on Saturday, September 26, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.