Japan vs South Korea prediction
Japan
16
12
19
10
South Korea
12
16
27
12
All predictions
3 picks graded · Average confidence 54%Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.
The score the model expects. An estimate, not a bet we publish.
Japan5782South Korea6783Japan5782South Korea6783Total 165 Margin SOU by 1 Win SOU 51% Actual 124 · SOU won
Japan vs South Korea
Japan
South Korea
Head-to-head
Head-to-head record: Japan 2, South Korea 1.
- Average total 166.7 points per meeting
- Over 168.5 1 of 3 against this game’s total
- Last meeting SOU by 17 Sep 13, 2026
Meetings
- Sep 13, 2026 Asian Games Japan 83–100 South Korea 183 pts
- Aug 16, 2026 Friendly International Japan 95–66 South Korea 161 pts
- Aug 15, 2026 Friendly International Japan 88–68 South Korea 156 pts
Last five games
Japan
4-1 - Sep 18: Japan 97, China 78. Won. Odds: Japan 3.80, China 1.22.
- Sep 16: Chinese Taipei 78, Japan 85. Won. Odds: Chinese Taipei 3.25, Japan 1.29.
- Sep 13: Japan 83, South Korea 100. Lost. No odds on record.
- Sep 11: Saudi Arabia 80, Japan 86. Won. No odds on record.
- Sep 10: Japan 98, Indonesia 53. Won. No odds on record.
South Korea
5-0 - Sep 18: South Korea 77, Iran 51. Won. Odds: South Korea 1.11, Iran 5.50.
- Sep 15: Jordan 80, South Korea 114. Won. Odds: Jordan 7.40, South Korea 1.06.
- Sep 13: Japan 83, South Korea 100. Won. No odds on record.
- Sep 11: Indonesia 48, South Korea 102. Won. No odds on record.
- Sep 10: South Korea 82, Saudi Arabia 66. Won. No odds on record.
Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.
Key insights
- 5-game winning streak for South Korea coming into this game.
- Odds moved: the odds on South Korea dropped from 1.44 to 1.28 since they were first published.
- Over/under moved up from 164.5 to 168.5 since it was first published.
- 2-1 in the last 3 meetings for Japan.
- 4-1 in the last five for Japan.
How the odds moved
| Market | Open | Now |
|---|---|---|
| JAP moneyline | 2.42 | moved up 3.01 |
| SOU moneyline | 1.44 | moved down 1.28 |
| Total points | 164.5 | moved up 168.5 |
| JAP spread | +4.5 | moved up +7.5 |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.
Asian Games standings
Regular Season · Group A
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Pts | PF | PA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Korea |
3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 284 | 197 | +87 |
| 2 | Japan |
3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 267 | 233 | +34 |
| 3 |  Saudi Arabia |
3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 246 | 257 | −11 |
| 4 |  Indonesia |
3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 190 | 300 | −110 |
- Playoffs: Quarter-finals
- Ranking of third-placed teams
Pts standings points: 2 for a win, 1 for a loss — the table is sorted by them. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.
Japan host South Korea in the Asian Games on Sunday, September 20, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.