Japan vs Philippines Prediction & Odds

Asian Games Women Tuesday, September 22, 2026Tue, Sep 22 Start00:00ET

JapanHome · 3-0 · 1st

8924281621

PhilippinesAway · 2-1 · 2nd

6711211817

By quarter 1st 2nd 3rd 4th

Japan 24 28 16 21

Philippines 11 21 18 17

Best tip of the game

Total points Lost

U155.5 1.85 57%

Under 155.5 points edge +6.6%

Best tip of the game Total points · Lost U155.5 1.85 Under 155.5 points Confidence57% model 56.6% · market 50.0% edge +6.6%

All predictions

3 picks graded · Average confidence 69%

Picks for this game

Market PickOdds Model Market Edge Confidence Result

Moneyline 1 — 99.9% 94.4% +5.5% 89% Won

Total points U155.5 1.85 56.6% 50.0% +6.6% 57% Lost

Point spread JAP -36.5 1.91 73.6% 50.0% +23.6% 60% Lost

Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

Japan8999

Philippines6745

Total 144 actual 156

Winning margin JAP by 54 actual JAP by 22

Chance to win JAP 100% JAP won

Predicted final score

ActualPredicted

Japan8999

Philippines6745

Total 144 Margin JAP by 54 Win JAP 100% Actual 156 · JAP won

Last five games

Japan 4-1

Sep 20: Kazakhstan 23, Japan 88. Won. Odds: Kazakhstan 12.00, Japan –.
Sep 17: Japan 114, Hong Kong 37. Won. Odds: Japan –, Hong Kong 17.00.
Oct 5, 2023: China 74, Japan 72. Lost. No odds on record.
Oct 3, 2023: Japan 81, South Korea 58. Won. No odds on record.
Oct 2, 2023: Indonesia 47, Japan 89. Won. No odds on record.

Philippines 3-2

Sep 19: Hong Kong 73, Philippines 90. Won. Odds: Hong Kong 12.00, Philippines –.
Sep 17: Philippines 86, Kazakhstan 58. Won. Odds: Philippines 1.01, Kazakhstan 11.00.
Oct 2, 2023: South Korea 93, Philippines 71. Lost. No odds on record.
Oct 1, 2023: Japan 96, Philippines 59. Lost. No odds on record.
Sep 29, 2023: Hong Kong 63, Philippines 99. Won. No odds on record.

Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.

How the odds moved

Market	Open	Now
PHI moneyline	12.00	12.00
Total points	153.5	moved up 154.5
JAP spread · regulation	−36.5	−36.5

Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.

Asian Games Women standings

Regular Season · Group B

#	Team	GP	W	L	Pts	PF	PA	+/−
1	Japan	3	3	0	6	291	127	+164
2	Philippines	3	2	1	5	243	220	+23
3	Kazakhstan	3	1	2	4	161	251	−90
4	Hong Kong	3	0	3	3	187	284	−97

Playoffs: Quarter-finals
Ranking of third-placed teams

Pts standings points: 2 for a win, 1 for a loss — the table is sorted by them. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.

Japan host Philippines in the Asian Games Women on Tuesday, September 22, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.

All predictions