Japan vs China prediction
Japan
28
21
34
14
China
15
15
22
26
All predictions
3 picks graded · Average confidence 50%Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.
The score the model expects. An estimate, not a bet we publish.
Japan9785China7880Japan9785China7880Total 165 Margin JAP by 5 Win JAP 60% Actual 175 · JAP won
Japan vs China
Japan
China
Last five games
Japan
4-1 - Sep 16: Chinese Taipei 78, Japan 85. Won. Odds: Chinese Taipei 3.25, Japan 1.29.
- Sep 13: Japan 83, South Korea 100. Lost. No odds on record.
- Sep 11: Saudi Arabia 80, Japan 86. Won. No odds on record.
- Sep 10: Japan 98, Indonesia 53. Won. No odds on record.
- Aug 16: Japan 95, South Korea 66. Won. No odds on record.
China
4-0 - Sep 16: China 87, Saudi Arabia 78. Won. Odds: China –, Saudi Arabia 17.00.
- Sep 14: China 105, Philippines 61. Won. No odds on record.
- Sep 12: Bahrain 59, China 105. Won. No odds on record.
- Sep 10: China 99, Kazakhstan 61. Won. No odds on record.
Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.
Key insights
- 4-game winning streak for China coming into this game.
- Odds moved: the odds on China dropped from 1.38 to 1.22 since they were first published.
- Over/under moved up from 165.5 to 167.5 since it was first published.
- 4-1 in the last five for Japan.
How the odds moved
| Market | Open | Now |
|---|---|---|
| JAP moneyline | 2.62 | moved up 3.80 |
| CHI moneyline | 1.38 | moved down 1.22 |
| Total points | 165.5 | moved up 167.5 |
| JAP spread | +10 | moved up +10.5 |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.
Asian Games standings
Regular Season · Group A
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Pts | PF | PA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  South Korea |
3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 284 | 197 | +87 |
| 2 | Japan |
3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 267 | 233 | +34 |
| 3 |  Saudi Arabia |
3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 246 | 257 | −11 |
| 4 |  Indonesia |
3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 190 | 300 | −110 |
Regular Season · Group C
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Pts | PF | PA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | China |
3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 309 | 181 | +128 |
| 2 |  Bahrain |
3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 249 | 268 | −19 |
| 3 |  Philippines |
3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 255 | 272 | −17 |
| 4 |  Kazakhstan |
3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 217 | 309 | −92 |
- Playoffs: Quarter-finals
- Ranking of third-placed teams
Pts standings points: 2 for a win, 1 for a loss — the table is sorted by them. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.
Japan host China in the Asian Games on Friday, September 18, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.