Illawarra Hawks vs Sydney prediction
Illawarra Hawks
19
17
16
30
Sydney
20
28
34
26
All predictions
3 picks graded · Average confidence 85%Model is the model’s estimated win chance for the pick, Market the win chance the odds gave it when the pick was published, and Edge the difference between the two.
The score the model expects. An estimate, not a bet we publish.
Illawarra Hawks8293Sydney108102Illawarra Hawks8293Sydney108102Total 195 Margin SYD by 9 Win SYD 74% Actual 190 · SYD won
Illawarra Hawks
large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction Sydney
Large = predicted · small = actual, ▲above / ▼below the prediction
Rebounds
Other
Shooting
Illawarra Hawks vs Sydney
Illawarra Hawks
Sydney
Last 11 and 9 games with full stats · all competitions
Season record above, per-game averages below.
Head-to-head
Head-to-head record: Illawarra Hawks 0, Sydney 5.
- Average total 204.4 points per meeting
- Over 199.5 3 of 5 against this game’s total
- Last meeting SYD by 21 Sep 27, 2026
Meetings
- Sep 27, 2026 NBL Sydney 121–100 Illawarra Hawks 221 pts
- Feb 13, 2026 NBL Illawarra Hawks 94–120 Sydney 214 pts
- Jan 29, 2026 NBL Sydney 122–104 Illawarra Hawks 226 pts
- Dec 25, 2025 NBL Sydney 108–84 Illawarra Hawks 192 pts
- Nov 15, 2025 NBL Illawarra Hawks 71–98 Sydney 169 pts
Last five games
Illawarra Hawks
2-3 - Oct 18: Melbourne United 89, Illawarra Hawks 91. Won. Odds: Melbourne United 1.15, Illawarra Hawks 4.90.
- Oct 11: Illawarra Hawks 100, Cairns Taipans 110. Lost. Odds: Illawarra Hawks 1.74, Cairns Taipans 2.05.
- Oct 9: Illawarra Hawks 112, Tasmania JackJumpers 122. Lost. Odds: Illawarra Hawks 1.68, Tasmania JackJumpers 2.10.
- Oct 4: South East Melbourne 113, Illawarra Hawks 96. Lost. Odds: South East Melbourne 1.60, Illawarra Hawks 2.27.
- Oct 2: Illawarra Hawks 114, Adelaide 92. Won. Odds: Illawarra Hawks 2.85, Adelaide 1.40.
Sydney
3-2 - Oct 17: Sydney 102, Perth 81. Won. Odds: Sydney 1.20, Perth 3.05.
- Oct 14: Sydney 101, New Zealand Breakers 102. Lost. Odds: Sydney 1.11, New Zealand Breakers 3.90.
- Oct 11: Sydney 78, Adelaide 84. Lost. Odds: Sydney 1.23, Adelaide 3.85.
- Sep 30: Sydney 93, Brisbane Bullets 78. Won. Odds: Sydney 1.36, Brisbane Bullets 3.03.
- Sep 27: Sydney 121, Illawarra Hawks 100. Won. Odds: Sydney 1.23, Illawarra Hawks 3.91.
Results before this game, all competitions: the home side on top, the team in bold, the moneyline odds each side had; the winner’s are highlighted.
Key insights
- 1-4 at home for Illawarra Hawks this season.
- 5-0 in the last 5 meetings for Sydney.
- Over/under moved up from 194.5 to 199.5 since it was first published.
- Net rating difference of 22.2 — Illawarra Hawks −10.0 per 100 possessions, Sydney +12.2.
- −7.7 points away — Sydney averaged 101.0 at home and 93.3 away this season.
How the odds moved
| Market | Open | Now |
|---|---|---|
| ILL moneyline | 3.10 | 3.10 |
| SYD moneyline | 1.30 | 1.30 |
| Total points | 194.5 | moved up 199.5 |
| ILL spread | +6.5 | moved up +7.5 |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the spread is shown from the home team’s side. The arrow shows which way the odds moved.
NBL standings
Regular Season
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Pct | PF | PA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sydney |
10 | 7 | 3 | .700 | 979 | 881 | +98 |
| 2 |  Tasmania JackJumpers |
10 | 7 | 3 | .700 | 956 | 908 | +48 |
| 3 |  Perth |
9 | 5 | 4 | .556 | 839 | 870 | −31 |
| 4 |  Cairns Taipans |
11 | 6 | 5 | .545 | 1014 | 1062 | −48 |
| 5 |  Melbourne United |
10 | 5 | 5 | .500 | 967 | 925 | +42 |
| 6 |  Brisbane Bullets |
10 | 5 | 5 | .500 | 938 | 967 | −29 |
| 7 |  Adelaide |
11 | 5 | 6 | .455 | 1001 | 1031 | −30 |
| 8 |  South East Melbourne |
10 | 4 | 6 | .400 | 969 | 943 | +26 |
| 9 |  New Zealand Breakers |
10 | 4 | 6 | .400 | 922 | 906 | +16 |
| 10 | Illawarra Hawks |
11 | 3 | 8 | .273 | 1057 | 1149 | −92 |
- Playoffs: Semi-finals
- Playoffs: Quarter-finals
Pct percentage of games won — the table is sorted by it. W / L wins and losses, GP games played. PF / PA points scored and allowed this season. +/− points scored minus points allowed.
Illawarra Hawks host Sydney in the NBL on Thursday, October 22, 2026. Who wins, by how many points, and how many points in total — our moneyline, spread and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses predicted pace and scoring, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.